Manion Lecture 2011 Supporting Slides UNCLASSIFIED 1. Export - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Manion Lecture 2011 Supporting Slides UNCLASSIFIED

1. Export market growth GDP growth in key export markets 120 US (1992-97) 115 Euro-area (2010-15)* 110 1992/2010=100 105 100 95 90 0 1 2 3 4 5 Year * IMF forecast for euro-area Source: IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook UNCLASSIFIED

2. Fiscal and Financial Sector Vulnerabilities 500 UK Netherlands 450 Sweden Domestic banking assets (% GDP) 400 350 Denmark Spain Germany France Ireland 300 Austria 250 Portugal 200 Greece Italy 150 Slovenia 100 Finland U.S 50 Bulgaria Czech Rep Slovakia 0 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Structural deficit in 2010 (% GDP) Source: ECB, Eurostat, US Fed and HMT calculations UNCLASSIFIED

3. Borrowing and debt Net debt Net borrowing 12 75 Canada 1989 onwards Canada 1989 onwards 70 10 UK 2007/8 onwards UK 2007/08 onwards 65 8 60 % of GDP 55 6 % o GDP 50 4 45 40 2 35 0 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 -2 Year Year Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook (for Canada) UNCLASSIFIED

4. Structural borrowing Structural net borrowing 10 Canada 1989 onwards UK 2007/08 onwards 8 6 % o GDP 4 2 0 Year -2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook (for Canada) UNCLASSIFIED

5. Bond yield spreads 10-year yield spread to Bunds 1600 1400 1200 1000 Basis points 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 -200 Spain Portugal Italy UK France Ireland Greece UNCLASSIFIED

6. Comparison of consolidations UK public spending and receipts Canadian public spending and receipts 55 55 Public spending Receipts 50 50 45 % of GDP % of GDP 45 40 40 35 35 Public spending Receipts 30 30 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Source: OBR March 2011 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (for the UK), IMF April 2011 World Economic Outlook (for Canada) UNCLASSIFIED

7. Changes to Public Sector Employment* 100 95 1994/2010 = 100 Canadian Public Sector (1994 to 1999) UK Public Sector* (2010 to 2015) 90 85 0 1 2 3 4 5 * UK Public sector excluding Public corporations (General Government). Year UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Sources: OBR Economic & Fiscal Outlook March 2011. ONS Public Sector Employment Statistics Q4 2010. Employment Statistics for the Federal Public Service 1996 to 1997, TBCS. Statistics Canada (www.statcan.gc.uk)

8. Civil Service Engagement: 2010 Civil Service People Survey The Civil Service’s employee 80% engagement framework views engagement as the emotional 75% contribution staff provide to their organisation. We measure engagement using five questions: 70% 2010 Employee Engagment Index 65% I am proud when I tell others I work for [my organisation] 60% Civil Service benchmark 2009: 58% I would recommend [my 55% organisation] as a great Civil Service benchmark 2010: 56% place to work 50% I feel a strong personal attachment to [my 45% organisation] 40% [My organisation] inspires me to do the best in my job 35% 30% [My organisation] motivates -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 me to help it achieve its Percentage point change in EEI since 2009 objectives Source: Civil Service People Survey 2010 UNCLASSIFIED

9. Drivers of Engagement