Major Development in Public Opinion Professor Laura Stoker, UC - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Major Development in Public Opinion Professor Laura Stoker, UC Berkeley San Ramon Valley Democratic Club June 28, 2018.

Party Identification and the 2018 Midterm Elections

Source: Trump owns a shrinking Republican party. Brookings. Elaine Kamarck, Alexander R. Podkul, and Nicholas W. ZepposThursday, June 14, 2018

Partisan Affiliation 1994-2017 (Pew data, registered voters only) 55 50 45 40 Percent 35 30 25 20 Republican Democrat Stoker chart

C O I i Secure I https://www.nytim es.c om /2017/05 /01/ upshot/the-ways-that-the-2016-election-was-perfectly-normal.html :i i Apps e rlc el ey I) W B eb of Sc i~nce H e! , •• From the NYT "The Ways that the 2016 Election was Perfectly Normal." Share of voters backing their party nominees 100 % Republican Democr at 90 80 70 60 50 I I I I I I I 1 960 1970 198 0 19 90 2 000 20 10 20 16 American National Election Study One month free, then 50 % off. The Times Sale. Limited time offer. SEE MY OPTIONS A . 1

Self-Reported Voter Turnout among Democratic and Republican Identifiers (Weighted ANES Data) 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 0.65 0.6 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Democrats Republicans Stoker chart

Voter Identification Laws and the Suppression of Minority Votes Zoltan Hajnal, University of California, San Diego Nazita Lajevardi, University of California, San Diego Lindsay Nielson, Bucknell University Journal of Politic s January 2017 Graphic from WAPO news article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/02/15/do-voter-identification-laws- suppress-minority-voting-yes-we-did-the-research/?utm_term=.aef1abc3fc5b

6/23/2018 Do Republicans Really Have A Big Turnout Advantage In Midterms? | FiveThirtyEight And it’s true generally too. But it masks an important factor: which party holds the 1 White House. Take a look at the table below. It shows — for every midterm since 1978 — the difference 2 between Democrats and Republicans in self-identified party identification among all registered voters compared with those who voted in the midterms (i.e. the turnout 3 margin or advantage). ADVERTISEMENT Replay A closer look at the Republican midterm turnout advantage The shift toward the GOP in party identification margin from all registered voters to those who voted in the midterm election REPUBLICAN MIDTERM TURNOUT ADVANTAGE UNDER A DEM. PRESIDENT UNDER A GOP PRESIDENT +6 — 1978 (Carter) — +1 1982 (Reagan) — None 1986 (Reagan) — +3 1990 (H.W. Bush) +6 — 1994 (Clinton) +3 — 1998 (Clinton) — +2 2002 (W. Bush) — None 2006 (W. Bush) +6 — 2010 (Obama) +5 — 2014 (Obama) +5 +1 Average +6 +1 Median Turnout is self-reported for 1982, 1994, 1998 and 2002. Turnout is from verified voter files for all other years. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republicans-really-have-a-big-turnout-advantage-in-midterms/ 2/5

Votes Cast vs Seats Won U.S. House Republicans, 1992-2016 65.0 60.0 2014 2010 2016 55.0 Seats Won 2012 2004 1994 2002 1996 1998 2000 50.0 2006 45.0 2008 1992 40.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 Votes Cast Stoker chart, data compiled by Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/multi-chapter-report/vital-statistics-on-congress/

Votes Cast versus Seats Won U.S. House Democrats, 1992-2016 65.0 60.0 1992 2008 55.0 Seats Won 2006 50.0 2000 1998 1996 2002 2004 1994 2012 45.0 2016 2010 2014 40.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 Votes Cast Stoker chart, data compiled by Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/multi-chapter-report/vital-statistics-on-congress/

Source: The Upshot: Why Democrats Can't Win the House

From 2017 Brennan Center for Justice report, “Extreme Maps,” by Laura Royden and Michael Li. “This decade’s congressional maps are consistently biased in favor of Republicans. In the 26 states that account for 85 percent of congressional districts, Republicans derive a net benefit of at least 16-17 congressional seats in the current Congress from partisan bias. This advantage represents a significant portion of the 24 seats Democrats would need to pick up to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018 Just seven states account for almost all of the bias.”

Source: https://www.cookpolitical.com/introducing-2017-cook-political-report-partisan-voter-index The Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat, 1997 - 2017 Swing (D+5 to R+5) Democratic (D+5 or Greater) Republican (R+5 or Greater) 200 195 190 186 185 182 180 169 168 168 162 160 159 164 150 148 147 150 146 144 143 139 134 123 124 122 108 100 103 99 90 90 72           1997 2001 2002 2004 2005 2009 2012 2013 2016 2017 50 After 2000 After TX After 2008 After 1996 After 2001 After 2004 After 2011 After 2012 After After 2016 1997 2001 2002 2004 2005 2009 2012 2013 2016 2017 Election Election Redistricting Redistricting Election Election Redistricting Election FL/NC/VA Election Redistricting

Source: https://www.cookpolitical.com/introducing-2017- cook-political-report-partisan-voter-index The House has become well-sorted out: only 35 of 435 districts “crossed over” to vote for presidential and House candi- dates of opposite parties, down from 108 in 1996. Today, there are 23 Republicans sitting in districts Clinton carried, and 12 Democrats sitting in districts Trump carried. However, this is slightly higher than the record low of 26 “crossover districts” following the 2012 election. 23 Clinton Republicans 12 Trump Democrats

From Cook Political Report. Partisanship in the district based on Cook PVI, which looks at voting in last two presidential elections. Fr D+10 or D+5.0 to D+2.0 to R+2.0 to R+5.0 to R+10.0 or D+1.9 to R+1.9 Greater D+9.9 D+4.9 R+4.9 R+9.9 Greater Democrat-Held Seats 118 47 11 13 3 1 1 Republican-Held Seats 0 3 2 18 25 61 132 Total 118 50 13 31 28 62 133 168 72 195

Map 1: Current party control of Senate Class I, up for election in 2018 Source: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-republican-senate-edge/ 10/17 Note: Senate Democrats are defending 10 seats in states Trump won in the presidential race, while Senate Republicans are defending only one seat in a Clinton-won state, held by Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV).

Source: CNN Key Races: Democrats Tough Senate Map

Growing Differences between Democrats and Republicans

The subsequent chapters explore Americans’ attitudes across individual political values and policy Growing gaps between Republicans and Democrats across domains % who say … Poor people have it Government regulation Government is easy because they The government Most corporations of business usually almost always can get government today can't afford make a fair does more harm wasteful and benefits without doing to do much more and reasonable than good inefficient anything in return to help the needy amount of profit Rep/Lean Rep 74 69 69 64 63 65 66 63 58 54 56 54 53 52 59 47 45 45 43 43 46 38 44 36 30 37 35 24 24 18 Dem/Lean Dem 1994 2017 1994 2017 1994 2017 1994 2017 1994 2017 Blacks who can't Immigrants today are a get ahead in this burden on our country Homosexuality The best way to Stricter environmental country are mostly because they take our should be ensure peace is laws and regulations responsible for their jobs, housing and discouraged through military cost too many jobs and own condition health care by society strength hurt the economy 75 64 66 58 63 58 59 53 44 62 49 49 53 44 39 37 37 42 36 33 26 30 28 24 29 28 20 13 12 13 1994 2017 1994 2017 1994 2017 1994 2017 1994 2017 Source: Survey conducted June 8-18 and June 27-July 9, 2017. PEW RESEARCH CENTER

Democrats and Republicans more ideologically divided than in the past Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-item scale of political values Notes: Ideological consistency based on a scale of 10 political values questions (see methodology).The blue area in this chart represents the ideological distribution of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents; the red area of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The overlap of these two distributions is shaded purple. Source: Survey conducted June 8-18, 2017. PEW RESEARCH CENTER

Gender Gap in Party Identification--% Democrat (Pew data) 60 55 Percent Identifying as Democrat 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Men Women Stoker chart.

Source: Abramowitz and Webster 2018. Negative Partisanship: Why Americans Dislike Parties but Act like Rabid Partisans

Source: Abramowitz and Webster 2018. Negative Partisanship: Why Americans Dislike Parties but Act like Rabid Partisans

Pew 2018 report on Generations.

Selected charts from Pew report on generations from March 2018

Growing Partisan Antipathy