ESJ Public Meeting – Process August 29, 2018
Major Tasks and Timeline
GSP Development Tasks Technical Topics Hydrologic Model Historical Water Budget Hydrogeologic Current Baseline Analysis Projected Water Budget Data Management System Policy Topics Undesirable Results Minimum Thresholds Sustainability Goals Measurable Interim Objectives Milestones Water Monitoring Accounting Network Implementation Topics Economics & Projects & Management Actions Funding Draft GSP & Implement. Plan May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Jan 2020 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 Jun 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Feb 2019
Stakeholder Involvement
Multiple Types and Levels of Stakeholders will be Involved • JPA and GSA Leadership – overall authority for decision-making, GSP development and implementation (monthly meetings open to the public) • Advisory Committee – advise JPA on plan development (monthly meetings open to the public) • Groundwater Sustainability Workgroup – diverse basin interests and provide input to plan development, Advisory Committee, and JPA (monthly meetings open to the public) • GSAs & General public – awareness and understanding; JPA emphasis on engagement of DACs (quarterly meetings)
Anticipated Information Flow Information flow Workgroup provides the Input Groundwater Sustainability Advisory Public Workgroup with an Committee Input Input opportunity to comment on working Technical draft concepts and Team documents with and GWA adequate time to Board incorporate feedback
Local Stakeholder Interests are Represented in the Groundwater Sustainability Workgroup • Groundwater Users • Native American Tribes 23 members representing • Community/Neighborhood • Disadvantaged diverse Communities • Agricultural categories • Institutional of interest • Environmental • Business • Flood Management 7
Workgroup Member Characteristics Workgroup members applied and were selected based on the following criteria. • Represent category/categories of interest • Demonstrated commitment to community service, civic leadership or prior experience serving on similar task force or advisory committee • Understanding of water issues • Interest in learning about and providing comments on the GSP • Willingness to commit to approximately monthly meetings • Share information with their respective organizations and bring forth questions/comments back to the project team 8
Groundwater Sustainability Workgroup Members • • 2Q Farming Manufacturers Council of the Central • Calaveras County Resource Valley • Conservation District The Wine Group • • Catholic Charities of the Diocese of J.R. Simplot Co. • Stockton Lima Ranch • • The Hartmann Law Firm/Advisory Water University of the Pacific • Commission Sequoia ForestKeeper • • San Joaquin Audubon Ag Business – Farmer • • Sierra Club The Environmental Justice Coalition for • San Joaquin Farm Bureau Federation Water • • Trinchero Family Estates and Sutter Spring Creek Golf & Country Club • Home Winery Machado Family Farms • • South Delta Water Agency California Sportfishing Protection Alliance • • San Joaquin County Environmental Restore the Delta • Health Department PUENTES 9
How is Workgroup Feedback and Input Incorporated? ✓ Comments reflected in work and meeting notes included in plan ✓ Standing agenda item at advisory committee and JPA meetings • Other ideas?
Where Are We In Plan Development?
Major Plan Focus Areas Develop concept of what sustainability Identify undesirable means for the results occurring now Subbasin and identify or in the past high priority values around groundwater Develop minimum Develop and refine thresholds for each projected water budget sustainability indicator 12
How to the Pieces Fit Together? Identify Appropriate Document Potential Develop Identify Spatially Monitoring / Undesirable Results Measurable Representative Measurement for Each Objectives above Minimum Locations Sustainability Each Minimum Thresholds throughout Indicator Threshold Subbasin We are here 13
Six Sustainability Indicators to be Addressed Current areas of focus Chronic lowering of Significant and Significant and groundwater levels unreasonable unreasonable indicating a degraded water reduction of significant and quality groundwater storage unreasonable depletion of supply Depletions of Significant and interconnected surface Significant and unreasonable water that have unreasonable land seawater intrusion significant and subsidence unreasonable adverse impacts on beneficial uses of the surface water 14
Sustainability Indicators Update Progress has been made on approach for developing minimum thresholds all six sustainability indicators • Groundwater elevations will be the most important thresholds for the Subbasin – we started with those, and they will require the most work. 15
Developing Minimum Thresholds for GW Elevation is Iterative Projects and Management Actions Undesirable Minimum Measurable Sustainability Thresholds Results Objectives Water Budget
What Comes Next? • The Projected Water Budget will be used to understand average sustainable pumping rates basin-wide • Preliminary Projects and Management Actions need to be Final Thresholds Thresholds identified to include supply and demand-side measures to achieve sustainability • Depending on rate of project implementation, Water groundwater elevation thresholds may need to Budget be adjusted 17
Water Budget
What is a Water Budget? A Water Budget is an accounting of the total groundwater and surface water entering and leaving a groundwater basin. 19
A Water Budget Operates like a Bank Account Inflows (supplies) and outflows (demands) are tracked and compared over time to identify change in amount of water stored. Outflows Inflows 20
Water Budgets Quantify the Movement of Water A Water Budget takes into account the storage and movement of water between the four physical systems of the hydrologic cycle: • Atmospheric system • Land surface system • River and stream system • Groundwater system 21
Why are Water Budgets Important? • “You can’t manage what you don’t measure” • A series of ongoing negative balances can result in long-term conditions of overdraft (the ESJ Subbasin is currently classified as “critically overdrafted ”) • Carefully calculated Water Budgets increase the likelihood that planned projects and management actions will achieve the intended outcome within the intended timeframe 22
The Water Budget for the ESJ GSP Pulls Combines Land and Water Use Cropping Patterns & Irrigation Practices Rainfall Water Demand and Supply Land & Water Use Budget 23
Water Budget Time Frames Current Historical Projected Conditions Water Water Baseline Budget Budget Uses the most recent Uses historical Uses estimated future data on population, information for population growth, land use, temperature, temperature, land use changes, year type, and precipitation, water climate change, and hydrologic conditions year type, and land sea level rise projected out over 50 use going back a projected out over 50 years of hydrology. minimum of 10 years. years of hydrology. 24
Water Demands are Based on Urban and Agricultural Water Use Estimates • Urban water use based on: • Population • Water Use Per Person • Agency projections • Agricultural water use based on • Crop type and acreage • Soil conditions • Irrigation practices • Hydrogeology and climate 25
Urban Water Demand: Changes in Use Over Time 1995 2015 26
Estimated Annual Urban Land and Water Use Budget 27
Historical Agricultural Water Demand: Changes in Crop Type Over Time 28
Estimated Annual Agricultural Land and Water Use Budget Eastern San Joaquin Subbasin Average Annual Estimated Agricultural Water Budget (Historical Conditions: 1995-2015) 29
Estimated Annual Groundwater Budget Water In Water Out 30
Projected Water Budget Approach Step 1 Identify future demands through 2040 Step 2 Identify supply projects with yield and timing Step 3 Develop water budget from “current” (2016) to 2040 31
Projected Future Conditions: Land Use and Cropping Patterns Historical Period Projected Future Period 32
Projected Future Conditions: Estimated Population and Water Use Historical Historical Period Projected Future Period Period Projected Future Period *GPCD = gallons per capita per day 33
Projected Future Conditions: Estimated Surface Water Deliveries Historical Period Projected Future Period Historical Period Projected Future Period 34
Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model (HCM)
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