R Regional School District #6 l h l D #6 Low Enrollment Challenges and Opportunities Challenges and Opportunities Chris Sanders, Chairman BOE Ed Drapp, Superintendent 1 10/28/2014 v0.5
Agenda Agenda • Background Background • The BOE Review of the Issues and • The BOE Review of the Issues and Recommendations • An Inside View (Ed Drapp) • Next Steps/Q&A 10/28/2014 v0.5 2
Background Background • Our experience and demographic data indicate declining enrollment for Region 6 schools enrollment for Region 6 schools. • Connecticut-wide trend since 2008 with few exceptions. • Economic and demographic realities are likely to lock these trends in place for at least next ten years. • Enrollment Projection Report (Dr. Peter Prowda) • Changed economy; Shifting Job Situation • Young are moving out; not being replaced • • Rapidly aging communities Rapidly aging communities • Birth rates falling • School age population declining • Available at http://www.rsd6.org on District Info menu. p g 10/28/2014 v0.5 3
Enrollment Projections Enrollment Projections • Over the next 10 years … Over the next 10 years … • Overall enrollment declines by about 25% • Wamogo declines 20% to about 417 Wamogo declines 20% to about 417 • Warren declines 45% to about 44 • Morris declines 11% to about 123 • GCS declines 38% to about 108 • By 2023, projected enrollment declines to B 2023 j d ll d li lowest levels in 50 years 10/28/2014 v0.5 4
Is it a Certainty? Is it a Certainty? • Dr. Prowda, himself, says … • “It is important to remember that the […] method [used] relies on observed data from the recent past. Its key assumption is that observed data from the recent past. Its key assumption is that those conditions will persist. It does not try to predict when the economic conditions might change. We cannot know today how long these conditions will continue. This projection should be used as a starting point for local planning.” used as a s a g po o oca p a g • But, … The projections have been fairly accurate since the 2008 financial crash. 1100 1050 1000 Prowda 950 Actual 900 850 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10/28/2014 v0.5 5
So, What Can the Region 6 Board Do About It? B d D Ab I ? • We can’t ignore it. • Unlike some school districts we have restrictions on what we can do about it … • BOE honors the spirit of agreement that formed Region 6 BOE h th i it f t th t f d R i 6 to educate elementary children in their Town of residence • So what we can do is • So, what we can do is … • Continue to adjust the delivery of education to maximize efficiency and quality within those constraints. • Study the problem and inform you • Study the problem and inform you. • The Board can offer its view of the right path as your elected representatives. • We can lead the District in the direction you We can lead the District in the direction you indicate you prefer. 10/28/2014 v0.5 6
History History • Two years ago Declining Enrollment Task Force (DETF) was created • DETF retained Jonathan Costa of Education Connection to help explore the impact and develop data for a number of options. • In March 2014, DETF concluded its work and recommended that the Region 6 BOE consider a merger with Litchfield School District hi hli hti highlighting concerns in three areas … i th Middle/High Elementary Cost Cost Educational ducat o a Educational ducat o a Issues Issues • The BOE met to consider the findings in June 2014 and again g g in September 2014. 10/28/2014 v0.5 7
BOE Recommendations BOE Recommendations 1. That a merger with Litchfield would have the potential to disrupt the delivery of a quality education for Region 6 without a sufficient the delivery of a quality education for Region 6 without a sufficient benefit. 2. That operational cost savings and enhancement of both the Litchfield and Region 6 High School educational programs are Litchfield and Region 6 High School educational programs are possible through cooperation and this should be pursued. 3. That the continued operation of three town-centric elementary schools negatively impacts the quality of education delivered and h l ti l i t th lit f d ti d li d d increases operational cost. The community should begin a discussion about how best to address this. 4. For as long as we continue to operate three elementary schools, the BOE should adopt a policy to allow parents and guardians to choose which of the three buildings their child attends. Adopted by the Region 6 Board, 10/08/14 10/28/2014 v0.5 8
What Cost Savings Cost W Were Likely? Lik l ? • Cost savings projected for a merger by Jonathan Costa Combine Central Eliminate Eliminate Four Eliminate Five Offices Two Schools Schools Schools Characteristics Central Office Close Warren Close Warren, Close Warren, from both Districts and Center Goshen, Morris and Goshen, Morris, LCS into One School LCS schools. and LIS schools. Redistribute use of All students use LHS remaining buildings and Wamogo. 10 Yr. Savings From Costa Study* $4.5 million $13.6 million $22.1 million $27 million Region 6 Towns Share (proj.)** $2.3 million $6.8 million $11.1 million $13.5 million Savings Over Baseline Investment 1.1% 3.4% 5.5% 6.8% Unlikely as a Not likely Not likely Most Likely stand alone solution * These numbers considered school years 2014 through 2022 y g ** Assumes 50/50 savings split with Litchfield; actual would be headcount based 10/28/2014 v0.5 9
Challenges of a Small Middle/High Middle/High School Middle/High School Educational I Issues Summary of Main Points: “Impact of Declining Enrollment on High School Programming”, Jonathan Costa CHALLENGE CHALLENGE SUMMARY SUMMARY DATA DATA Limited Course With a smaller student population it is difficult to At Wamogo (Pomperaug) Currently: Offerings offer a broad range of offerings as class sizes Total Courses = 119 (219) can get quite small Core Courses = 58 Elective Courses = 48 AP Courses = 13 (15) AP Courses = 13 (15) Schedule Conflicts With small student population, can only offer Single Section At Wamogo (Pomperaug): Limit Choice most electives and some core courses in a 60% of all offerings single session. Some combinations of Core and 41% of Core offerings Elective courses not always possible. Limited 100% (73%) of AP offerings option to avoid teachers that students don’t like. ti t id t h th t t d t d ’t lik Student Interaction Students attend most classes 7-12 with same Class size ave. at Wamogo (Pomperaug): Limited kids. Social issues may follow. Will become Academic = 19 bigger issue with time. Elective = 9 AP = 11 (21) Teacher Loads are As class sizes decline, the number of students Teacher Load: Low and Declining each teacher handles declines. Introduces Wamogo: 70 students financial inefficiency. Pomperaug: 110 students Difficulty Fielding Smaller pools of eligible students make fielding Athletic Teams Athletic Teams a competitive team harder Some sports may a competitive team harder. Some sports may have to be dropped. 10/28/2014 v0.5 10
But There Are Middle/High Educational Advantages, Too Ad T Issues I • Clearly we have the challenges of a small Middle/High School but … we have all the Middl /Hi h S h l b t h ll th advantages, too! • Benefits of Smaller High Schools* • Better Academic Results • Better Student Behavior • Higher Rates of Student and Parent Participation • Higher Rates of Graduation • Higher Rates of Graduation * “School Size: Research Based Conclusions”, The Rural School and Community Trust The Rural School and Community Trust 10/28/2014 v0.5 11
Build On Middle/High Educational An Excellent Base An Excellent Base I Issues • We think “small is the new big” at Wamogo • Designation as Blue Ribbon School • Designation as Blue Ribbon School • Designation as a New England Spotlight Middle School • Designation of AgSci as a Designation of AgSci as a National Chapter • Metrics trending upward. • Build on that though opportunities to cooperate that could benefit both Litchfield and Region 6 • Cooperation in planning and scheduling low attendance offerings between our two schools • Distance learning options with Litchfield and others. • Sharing specialty teachers and District services Sh i i lt t h d Di t i t i 10/28/2014 v0.5 12
Elementary Educational We Need to Know We Need to Know Issues • Important for the Board to understand the Region p g thoughts about options for the elementary schools • All of the merger options required the closing of at least All f th ti i d th l i f t l t one Region 6 elementary school to realize cost savings. • There are educational challenges at the elementary level if nothing is done. More importantly, there are opportunities for excellence by taking action. pp y g • What direction shall we take? 10/28/2014 v0.5 13
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