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September 30, 2014 Enrollment Projected Enrollment Compared to Actual Enrollment Projected Actual 30-Sep-14 30-Sep-14 Difference K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 350 Kindergarten 4590 4891 301 301 300 Grade 1 5854 5901 47 250 Grade 2 5813 5893 80 Grade 3 5749 5764 15 200 Grade 4 5870 5871 1 150 118 Grade 5 5950 5954 4 79 80 100 Grade 6 5803 5777 (26) 47 50 15 1 4 Grade 7 5747 5826 79 0 Grade 8 5565 5518 (47) (50) (26) Grade 9 5595 5713 118 (47) (54) (100) (68) Grade 10 5472 5404 (68) Grade 11 5172 5118 (54) (150) Grade 12* 4985 4803 (182) (200) (182) Sub Total 72165 72433 268 (250) Preschool Special Ed 668 663 (5) (300) STEP Program 300 271 (29) (350) Head Start Program 100 94 (6) Sub Total 1068 1028 (40) K-12 Grade Level Difference Total 73233 73461 228 * Includes Post Graduate (PG) Students • 2
Loudoun County Public Schools Actual September 30 Enrollment LCPS Students Actual September 30 Enrollment September 30 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Enrollment 18,270 19,967 21,733 23,782 26,091 28,787 31,804 34,589 37,532 40,751 44,014 # Growth 1,697 1,766 2,049 2,309 2,696 3,017 2,785 2,943 3,219 3,263 % Growth 9.3% 8.8% 9.4% 9.7% 10.3% 10.5% 8.8% 8.5% 8.6% 8.0% September 30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Enrollment 47,361 50,478 54,047 57,009 60,096 63,220 65,668 68,289 70,858 73461 # Growth 3,347 3,117 3,569 2,962 3,087 3,124 2,448 2,621 2,569 2,603 % Growth 7.6% 6.6% 7.1% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% • 3
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ANNUAL CHANGE 2010-11 to 2011-12 to 2012-13 to 2013-14 to 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 ASHBURN 472 278 245 57 DULLES NORTH 927 908 1117 930 DULLES SOUTH 672 913 726 1019 CENTRAL LOUDOUN 376 173 239 136 EASTERN LOUDOUN 93 217 203 361 WESTERN LOUDOUN 19 92 50 111 2559 2581 2580 2614 • 5
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Births by Place of Residence, 1990-2012 Births peaked in both the U.S. and Virginia in 2007 . The drop since 2007, in part attributed to the late- 2000 recession, reflect a decline in both the overall birth rate and the actual number of births. • 7
Kindergarten Enrollment, 1990-2014 • 8
Kindergarten-Grade 12 Enrollment, 1990-2014 September 30 Enrollment YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1990 1,351 1,362 1,156 1,119 1,103 1,086 1,071 1,044 1,004 1,087 998 877 955 1991 1,324 1,422 1,279 1,167 1,114 1,122 1,169 1,082 1,043 1,119 994 935 907 1992 1,348 1,393 1,390 1,298 1,200 1,142 1,223 1,196 1,109 1,187 1,069 963 944 1993 1,412 1,488 1,455 1,455 1,356 1,246 1,277 1,283 1,248 1,261 1,138 1,031 995 1994 1,662 1,542 1,521 1,500 1,504 1,385 1,363 1,318 1,332 1,369 1,167 1,066 1,077 1995 1,746 1,884 1,658 1,617 1,600 1,570 1,540 1,458 1,392 1,490 1,320 1,155 1,100 1996 1,876 1,947 1,931 1,792 1,713 1,692 1,715 1,631 1,512 1,586 1,423 1,293 1,174 1997 2,014 2,105 2,058 2,005 1,852 1,832 1,804 1,826 1,721 1,707 1,537 1,386 1,330 1998 2,177 2,278 2,259 2,243 2,124 1,975 2,038 1,899 1,923 1,904 1,701 1,507 1,420 1999 2,320 2,445 2,447 2,424 2,358 2,227 2,171 2,179 2,027 2,229 1,867 1,694 1,544 2000 2,700 2,788 2,739 2,706 2,707 2,653 2,436 2,345 2,268 2,311 2,188 1,841 1,695 2001 2,791 3,097 2,962 2,886 2,824 2,864 2,785 2,576 2,478 2,577 2,296 2,130 1,843 2002 2,995 3,268 3,281 3,082 3,054 2,971 3,012 2,904 2,703 2,758 2,582 2,211 2,137 2003 3,361 3,498 3,448 3,497 3,235 3,221 3,122 3,187 3,098 2,981 2,747 2,545 2,217 2004 3,433 3,881 3,677 3,604 3,632 3,425 3,384 3,320 3,349 3,395 2,976 2,761 2,517 2005 3,964 4,026 4,016 3,825 3,738 3,786 3,580 3,523 3,482 3,645 3,498 2,906 2,725 2006 4,025 4,479 4,190 4,158 4,032 3,843 3,901 3,730 3,693 3,700 3,723 3,377 2,957 2007 4,371 4,779 4,647 4,353 4,278 4,142 4,046 4,057 3,879 4,006 3,797 3,600 3,382 2008 4,423 5,072 4,865 4,755 4,499 4,400 4,282 4,162 4,190 4,146 4,041 3,728 3,584 2009 4,645 5,182 5,212 4,966 4,932 4,630 4,516 4,392 4,329 4,441 4,241 3,983 3,736 2010 4,698 5,448 5,308 5,332 5,082 5,027 4,765 4,677 4,514 4,634 4,534 4,255 3,969 2011 4,708 5,446 5,558 5,408 5,468 5,197 5,117 4,920 4,787 4,714 4,703 4,490 4,199 2012 4,832 5,528 5,576 5,668 5,565 5,581 5,313 5,260 5,050 5,029 4,788 4,703 4,460 2013 5,010 5,706 5,638 5,731 5,850 5,639 5,665 5,447 5,400 5,243 5,062 4,797 4,680 2014 4,891 5,901 5,893 5,764 5,871 5,954 5,777 5,826 5,518 5,713 5,404 5,118 4,803 • 9 Yellow Highlight Indicates Grade Level with Largest Student Enrollment
Kindergarten-Grade 12 Enrollment Trends • 10 * Projected K-12 Enrollment
FY 2016 through FY 2020 CIP Student Enrollment Projections Actual Projected 30-Sep-14 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Elementary (K-5) 34,274 34,610 34,891 35,035 34,930 34,669 Middle (6-8) 17,121 17,952 18,364 18,735 19,082 19,618 High (9-12) 21,038 22,125 23,389 24,441 25,412 26,317 Preschool (PS,ST,HS) 1,028 1,068 1,089 1,109 1,130 1,152 73,461 75,755 77,733 79,320 80,554 81,756 # Student Change 2,294 1,978 1,587 1,234 1,202 % Student Change 3.1% 2.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% PS = Preschool Special Education, ST = Starting Toward Excellence in Preschool Program, HS = Head Start Program • 11
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Future Student Demand, by LCPS Planning District Western Eastern Loudoun Loudoun 10% Central 12% Ashburn Loudoun 6% 8% Dulles North 34% Dulles South 30% Approved Unbuilt Units Future Students Future School Needs SFD SFA MF ES MS HS ES MS HS Eastern Loudoun Planning District 0 0 4054 603 289 364 0.6 0.3 0.4 Ashburn Planning District 2 274 1587 307 147 185 0.3 0.2 0.2 Dulles North Planning District 845 2510 5549 1777 851 1073 1.9 1.0 1.2 Dulles South Planning District 3323 845 945 1584 759 957 1.7 0.9 1.1 Central Loudoun Planning District 800 173 764 412 197 249 0.4 0.2 0.3 Western Loudoun Planning District 1308 492 0 521 250 315 0.6 0.3 0.4 SFD = Single Family Detached, SFA = Single Family Attached/Townhome, MF = Multifamily • 13
14 • 14
15 • 15
Loudoun County Public School Meeting Calendar: FY 2016-20 CIP and CAPP Budgets Date Time Meeting Presentation of the Superintendent’s Tuesday, November 11, 2014* 6:30 p.m. Recommended FY 2016-20 CIP and CAPP School Board Public Hearing and Work Session Monday, November 17, 2014 6:30 p.m. on the FY 2016-20 CIP and CAPP School Board Public Hearing and Work Session Monday, November 24, 2014 6:30 p.m. on the FY 2016-20 CIP and CAPP School Board Work Session on the FY 2016-20 Monday, December 1, 2014 6:30 p.m. CIP and CAPP [if needed] School Board Adoption of FY 2016-20 CIP and Tuesday, December 9, 2014* 6:30 p.m. CAPP * Regular School Board Business Meeting All CIP/CAPP meetings will be held in the School Board Meeting room at the LCPS Administration Building [21000 Education Court, Ashburn]. The meetings will also be broadcast live on both Verizon FIOS channel 43 and Comcast channel 18, as well as viewable via simultaneous web casts on the LCPS website [www.lcps.org]. • 16
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