Logic-based Evaluation of Forest Logic-based Evaluation of Forest - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Logic-based Evaluation of Forest Logic-based Evaluation of Forest Ecosystem Sustainability Ecosystem Sustainability Keith M. Reynolds, USDA Forest Service Keith M. Reynolds, USDA Forest Service Sean N. Gordon, USDA Forest Service Sean N. Gordon, USDA Forest Service K. Norman Johnson, Oregon State University K. Norman Johnson, Oregon State University USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station

Logic models Logic models � A form of meta database A form of meta database � � A formal logical representation of how to evaluate A formal logical representation of how to evaluate � information information � Networks of interrelated topics Networks of interrelated topics � � Mental map Mental map � � Executable specification Executable specification � USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station

Forms of uncertainty Forms of uncertainty � Probabilistic uncertainty Probabilistic uncertainty � � Uncertainty of events Uncertainty of events � � Linguistic uncertainty Linguistic uncertainty � � Uncertainty about the definition of events Uncertainty about the definition of events � � Vagueness or imprecision Vagueness or imprecision � � A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which � one can assign a measure of strength of evidence one can assign a measure of strength of evidence USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station

Logic networks Logic networks = topic Concern 1 Concern 2 Ecostate A Ecostate B Etc . Ecostate C Ecostate D Data link Data link Data Data link Data link Data link

Logic topics Logic topics � Each topic evaluates a proposition Each topic evaluates a proposition � � Attributes of a topic Attributes of a topic � � Name (e.g., biodiversity) Name (e.g., biodiversity) � � Proposition (e.g., biodiversity is being maintained) Proposition (e.g., biodiversity is being maintained) � � Strength of evidence for the proposition Strength of evidence for the proposition � � A formal logic specification (e.g., a proof) A formal logic specification (e.g., a proof) � � Documentation Documentation � � Explanation, source, citations, assumptions Explanation, source, citations, assumptions � USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station

Logic processing Logic processing Concern 1 Get data requirements Ecostate A Evaluate data Ecostate B Ecostate C Data link Data link Data link

Strength of evidence Strength of evidence An example: slope is suitable for tractor logging. An example: slope is suitable for tractor logging. Degrees of support Degrees of support Bivalent reasoning Bivalent reasoning 1 1 Strength of evidence Strength of evidence Yes 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 Partial Yes No 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 No 0 0 15 20 25 30 35 15 20 25 30 35 Percent slope Percent slope USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station

Evaluation of national C&I Evaluation of national C&I � The Montreal specifications provide relatively The Montreal specifications provide relatively � clear definitions of biophysical, socioeconomic, clear definitions of biophysical, socioeconomic, and framework attributes requiring evaluation and framework attributes requiring evaluation (WGCICSMTBF 1995) ... (WGCICSMTBF 1995) ... � But, design of evaluation procedures that allow But, design of evaluation procedures that allow � interpretation of the National C&I is one of the interpretation of the National C&I is one of the major technical issues that remain to be resolved major technical issues that remain to be resolved (Raison et al. 2001). (Raison et al. 2001). USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station

Conceptual framework ( Davis et al., 2001 ) Conceptual framework ( Davis et al., 2001 ) 1. Specified conditions or outcomes to be sustained (the 1. Specified conditions or outcomes to be sustained (the indicators). indicators). 2. A measure for each condition or outcome. A measure for each condition or outcome. 2. 3. Calculation of the level of the indicator over some time Calculation of the level of the indicator over some time 3. period using the selected measure. period using the selected measure. 4. A frame of reference for gauging sustainability. A frame of reference for gauging sustainability. 4. 5. Methods for evaluating sustainability (sustainability Methods for evaluating sustainability (sustainability 5. check). check). 6. A monitoring program. A monitoring program. 6. 7. A formalism that supports requirements 1 to 6. A formalism that supports requirements 1 to 6. 7. USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station

Logic models as design frameworks Logic models as design frameworks � Logic models (knowledge bases) provide a formal Logic models (knowledge bases) provide a formal � specification for organizing and interpreting specification for organizing and interpreting information. . information � Problem represented in terms of propositions Problem represented in terms of propositions � about topics of interest and their about topics of interest and their interdependencies. interdependencies. � Topics translated into propositions. Topics translated into propositions. � � Lexical uncertainty. Lexical uncertainty. � USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station

Logic models as design frameworks Logic models as design frameworks (continued) (continued) � Need for transparency ( Need for transparency (Prabhu Prabhu et al. 2001) et al. 2001) � � Models embody important policy decisions. Models embody important policy decisions. � � Models depend on value judgments and critical Models depend on value judgments and critical � assumptions that need clear documentation. assumptions that need clear documentation. � Explanation Explanation � � Graphic representation is an effective basis for Graphic representation is an effective basis for � organizing discussion and for evolution of design. organizing discussion and for evolution of design. � Communication between scientists and policy makers. Communication between scientists and policy makers. � � Communication with interested publics. Communication with interested publics. � USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service PNW Research Station

1 Design issues: Biodiversity Design issues: 2 Production capacity model organization model organization 3 Biophysical Ecosystem AND criteria health 4 Conservation 5 Carbon cycle Basic organization Basic organization Production of topics. of topics. Recreation For example, For example, 6 Forest Socioeconomic AND AND Investment sustainability criterion evaluation of evaluation of Culture criteria in the criteria in the Employment current prototype. current prototype. Legal Institutional 7 Framework AND Economic criterion R&D capacity Monitoring capacity

1 Design issues: Biodiversity Design issues: 2 Production capacity model organization model organization 3 Ecosystem health 4 Conservation 5 Carbon cycle An alternative An alternative Production organization with organization with Recreation very different very different 6 Forest Socioeconomic AND AND Investment sustainability criterion emphasis on emphasis on Culture criteria. criteria. Employment Legal Institutional 7 Framework AND Economic criterion R&D capacity Monitoring capacity

Design issues: synthesis Design issues: synthesis [-4, 4] Ecosystem Ecosystem Indicator 2 SUM diversity calc diversity Stage 1 Indicator 3 Reserves Indicators 6 & 7 Biodiversity AND Species diversity Indicator 4 Admin withdrawn Indicator 8 Genetic diversity Indicator 5 Fragmentation � AND operator: arguments evaluated as limiting AND operator: arguments evaluated as limiting � factors. factors. � SUM operator: arguments contribute SUM operator: arguments contribute � incrementally to evaluation and can compensate. incrementally to evaluation and can compensate.

Design issues: synthesis Design issues: synthesis Indicator 47 Subsistence area Indicator 44 Employment rate Indicator 45 Injury rate Indicator 44 Employment rate Employment Indicator 45 Indicator 13 Wage rate Harvest volume [-5, 6] Indicator 46 Standing Employment calc OR SUM AND Comm. viability volume Wood volume Indicator 46 Wood value Comm.adaptability Another example, including the OR operator. Another example, including the OR operator.