Landscapes in transition: Global and regional implications of post- Soviet land-use change Alexander Prishchepov
08/06/2019 2 About me 2014 - Associate Professor at the University of Copenhagen (Land system science) 2014-co-affiliated Kazan Federal University, Steppe institute of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences 2010-2014 post-Doc IAMO, Germany 2004-2010 Ph. D. University of Wisconsin-Madison Born and raised in St. Petersburg (Alma-mater Russian State Hydrometeorological University) Family name bears Belarussian routes :) Research focus on sustainable land-use in transition economies
08/06/2019 3 Socio-political changes May have long-standing political and environmental implications Possible impact of Prussia, Russian Empire and Austro-Hungary subdivide of Poland Parliamentary elections in 2015 Weat yields
08/06/2019 4 Socio-political changes are not rare Relaxing wheat production for Argentina by Spain Accession to EU and Common Agricultural Policy 1978 Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms in China Long-standing effects of sanctions to North Korea, Iran
08/06/2019 5 Breakup of the Soviet Union and transition to market economy Provides an interesting case “Natural experiment” (J. Diamond) Common starting point but different land-use legacies Multiple transition “trajectories” Various impacts on landscapes
08/06/2019 6 Outline of the Talk • Synthesize what we learned about the impacts of FSU political and economic transition on landscapes • Global and regional impacts on environmental processes • Existing research gaps
Summary of transition across Former Soviet Union Disintegration of state- command system and guaranteed markets Open market-economy principles Removal of subsidies Both loss, but also new employment opportunities
Summary of the transition across Former Soviet Union Transition means we expect some outcome Yet, the environmental outcomes were not foreseen in the beginning Multiple approaches how to transition – outcomes ” success ” Spring wildfires 2018 and ”lost in transition” outcomes Dobrynin, Prishchepov 2018 Svoboda. org
23 Feb 2010 Change in night-time lights intensity Proxy for Economic Activity 1992 to 2000 9 Source: www.ngdc.nooaa.gov/dmsp/ Introduction to Remote Sensing
Source: www.ngdc.nooaa.gov/dmsp/
Implications to land use
Massive land abandonment A drastic decrease of livestock and fodder crops across FSU Abandoned grassland alone- 41-123 Mha 100% 50% Dynamic of livestock across FSU in FAO livestock units 1990=100% 0% 1990 2000 2010
6/8/2019 Massive agricultural land abandonment Circa 2008 Active Agriculture Forest 13 Abandoned Agriculture Alcantara et al. 2013, Environmental Research Letters
Non-linear land-use change trajectories over time Dynamics of sown areas across FSU 1990-2000 Prishchepov et al. in prep.
Non-linear land-use change trajectories over time Dynamics of sown areas across FSU 2000-2010 Prishchepov et al. in prep.
6/8/2019 A decrease of livestock pressure on grassland ecosystems Example of distribution of grazing intensity in Kazakhstan Hankerson et al. 2012, PLOS One
Cross-border regions highlight the differences Agricultural land abandonment from 1990 to 2000 Prishchepov et al. 2012, Environmental Research Letters
6/8/2019 In sum Extent of cropland and grassland abandonment across former Soviet Union 18 Abandoned cropland- 62 Mha Abandoned grassland- 41-123 Mha
6/8/2019 Abandonment results in defragmentation of landscapes, but also in polarization Example of steppe defragmentation in Kazakhstan Over- exploiting remaining croplands Kraemer et al. 2015, Environmental Research Letters
08/06/2019 20 Changing in logging patterns predominantly a decrease Potapov et al. 2016 RSE Baumann et al. 2012 RSE
08/06/2019 21 New forests on abandoned fields- novel ecosystems -30 Mha, defragmentation Proportion of afforested % fields Glushkov et al. In Preparation
Yet, an increased logging in Vladimir, Arkhangelsk and some parts of Siberia Major export markets for Russian forest products Groisman et al. (2017) Progress in Earth and Planetary Science
08/06/2019 23 The polarization processes – a decrease and fragmentation of intact forest landscapes across FSU due to logging and fires Potapov et al. 2017, Science Advances
08/06/2019 24
Global and regional implications in the teleconnected world
Strong implications of abandonment to Carbon sink One third of Russia’s CO2 emission due to industry and fossil fuels Sources: Kurganova et al. 2014, Global Change Biology Schierhorn et al. 2013, Global Biogeochemical Cycles Schiermeier 2013, Nature News
6/8/2019 Assessment of carbon sequestration on abandoned lands across FSU 1990-2010 27 Prishchepov et al., in preparation
6/8/2019 FSU became a global hotspot of soil and above ground biomass C sink Mean annual change in aboveground biomass carbon between 1993 and 2012 Liu et al. 2015, Nature Climate Change
6/8/2019 ..And a global greening hotspot too Positive NDVI trends in hotspots of abandonment de Jong et al. 2012, Global Change Biology
08/06/2019 30 Cascaded implications of land-use change via telecoupling Beef exports from Brazil to Russia and imbedded CO2 emissions 100% 50% Dynamic of livestock across FSU in FAO livestock units 1990=100% 0% 1990 2000 2010 Abandonment Deforestation Schierhorn et al. 2016 Global Food Security, Schierhorn et al. 2019, Environmental Research Letters
Research gaps
6/8/2019 Lack of thematic LULCC products LULCC is badly mapped so far No uniform product on land abandonment and change of land-use intensity exists so far Except of Hansen (2013) and Potapov (2015) no uniform map on forest logging exist as well Urban dynamic has been missed as well 32
08/06/2019 33 A lack of understanding the drivers of change Example land abandonment- we need to move beyond the myths
08/06/2019 34 Land-use change is a transition process
08/06/2019 35
Importance to find trade-offs between agricultural development and weighting up ecosystem services Meyfroidt et al. 2016, Global Environmental Change
Thank you! Спасибо ! alpr@ign.ku.dk www.iltas.net Integrative Land Transformation Analysis Group
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