The Past, Present and Future of Irish Agriculture Brendan Kearney
The Past, Present and Future of Irish Agriculture • Changing role in the economy • Main policy developments and output/ income trends • Changing structure and performance • The prospects and challenges which lie ahead • Harvest 2020 and CAP Reform 2013
Role of agriculture in the economy
Output ‐ its level and character • Overall enterprise mix and pa9ern of farming has changed li9le • Dominant enterprises are ca9le and milk produc<on accoun<ng for up to 70% of total output • Volume of GAO expanded by 50% from EU entry to 1990 • Trend in the last decade downwards • Volume last year less than 20 years ago. • Value added in real terms 30% lower last year than in 2000
Highs and lows in farm incomes over the years • Bonanza in seven<es • In the late eigh<es and nine<es ‐ ups and downs • The last decade ‐ large fluctua<ons
Role of Direct Payments
Farm structure • UnremiUng change in the structure of agriculture with fewer and larger farms, specialisa<on and concentra<on of produc<on, less employment and growth in part‐<me farming • Holdings • Age structure • Part‐<me farming
Food Harvest 2020 Overarching targets for 2020 are: • Increase in the value of primary output in the sector of € 1.5billion - 33% increase over the 2007/2009 average • Increase in value-added of the sector by € 3billion - 40% increase over 2008 • Export target of € 12billion - 42% increase over 2007/2009 • Major challenges for dairy, beef and pigment sectors • Land structure and mobility a major constraint
The Common Agricultural Policy aXer 2013 Context: Ireland received €1, 824million and €1,705million in EU agricultural receipts in the years 2008 and 2009 respec<vely, of which Single Farm Payment was €1,300million ‐ two‐thirds of total direct payments to farmers. The objec<ves of the future CAP to 2020 are: • Viable food produc<on including compensa<on for natural handicaps • Sustainable development of natural resources including the provision of public goods and pursuing climate change mi<ga<on ac<ons • Balanced territorial development to promote diversifica<on and rural diversity
Three broad policy op<ons are presented: Op<on 1: Limited improvements in specific areas e.g. more equity in direct payments. Op<on 2: Make major overhauls of the policy ‐more sustainable and more targeted measures. Op<on 3: More radical reform of the CAP and main focus on environmental and climate change and gradually move away from income support and most market measures.
Crucial issues • Size of budget • Change from historic model of direct payments • What approach for Ireland?
Concluding comments
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