INTEGRATIVE ASSESSMENT – FROM SHOALS TO SEAS AND INTO THE FUTURE From micro- to ecosystem scale: Do we know enough to make decisions? Chair: Sabine Cochrane, SALT and Jacob Carstensen, Aarhus University PRESENTORS IN BLOCK 6 (11:00 – 12:25) Christopher Smith, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research Jesper Andersen, NIVA Denmark Water Research Jacob Carstensen, Aarhus University Laura Uusitalo, SYKE Finnish Environment Ins]tute Fuensanta Salas Herrero, Joint Research Centre – European Commission Next: Mike Ellio-, University of Hull DEVOTES Final Conference, 17 – 19 October 2016, Brussels
How will climate change affect marine assessments? Professor Mike Ellio_ Ins]tute of Estuarine & Coastal Studies, University of Hull, UK. With acknowledgements to Ángel Borja, Jesper Andersen, Krysia Mazik, Abigail McQua_ers-Gollop, Silvana Birchenough, Suzanne Pain]ng, Sue Boyes, Roxy Saul, Richard Barnes & Myron Peck DEVOTES Final Conference, October 17-19 2016, Brussels
Basic Premise: • Exogenic (outside the management area) and endogenic (inside the management area) pressures produce individual, in-combina]on and cumula]ve effects. • Global climate change is an exogenic unmanaged pressure where management has to respond to the consequences rather than the causes of that change. • We can summarise our understanding as conceptual models (‘ horrendograms ’) to inform future natural and social science research and management. • This presents managers with the sequence of responses by the natural and human systems, and hence indicate impediments to the implementa]on of legisla]on such as European Direc]ves. 3
Hazard & Risk Typology: Hazard leading to Risk (depending on assets) A) Surface hydrological hazards B) Surface physiographic removal by natural processes - chronic/long-term C) Surface physiographic removal by human ac]ons - chronic/long-term D) Surface physiographic removal - acute/short-term E) Climatological hazards - acute/short term = Risk Assessment & Risk Management F) Climatological hazards - chronic/long term (RA&RM): G) Tectonic hazards - acute/short term • Hazard Identification: H) Tectonic hazards - chronic/ long term • Risk Assessment: • Risk Management: I) Anthropogenic microbial biohazards • Risk Communication: J) Anthropogenic macrobial biohazards K) Anthropogenic introduced technological hazards L) Anthropogenic extrac]ve technological hazards M) Anthropogenic acute chemical hazards N) Anthropogenic chronic chemical hazards 4
Abbrevia]ons: BWD= Bathing Water Direc]ve; BWM= Ballast Water Management Conven]on; CAP= Common Agricultural Policy; CFP= Common Fisheries Policy; EIA= Environmental Impact Assessment Direc]ve; FRMD= Flood Risk Management Direc]ve; FRMD (FRMP)= Flood Risk Management Direc]ve (Flood Risk Management Plan); HD= Habitats Direc]ve; MPS= Mari]me Spa]al Planning Direc]ve; MSFD= Marine Strategy Framework Direc]ve; Natura 2000= Habitats and Wild Birds direc]ves; Nitrates Dir= Nitrates Direc]ve; SAC= Special Area of Conserva]on; SEA Dir= Strategic Environmental Assessment Direc]ve; SPA= Special Protec]on Area; UWWTD= Urban Wastewater Treatment Direc]ve; WBD= Birds Direc]ve; WFD= Water Framework Direc]ve (with extension out to 12nm for chemical status); WFD (RBMP)= Water Framework Direc]ve (River Basin Management Plan) Geographical scope and competencies of EU marine legisla]on
Activities contributing to Endogenic Managed Pressures Nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment Activity Pressures Input of organic matter Aquaculture Smothering Extraction of living Substratum loss Introduction of microbial resources Changes in siltation pathogens Transport & Shipping Abrasion Introduction of non- Renewable Energy Selective extraction of indigenous species and Non-renewable (fossil fuel) non-living resources translocations Energy (habitat removal) Selective extraction of Non-renewable (nuclear) Underwater noise species Energy Litter Death or injury by Extraction of non-living Thermal regime change collision resources Salinity regime change Barrier to species Navigational Dredging Introduction of synthetic movement Coastal Infrastructure compounds Emergence regime Land-based Industry Introduction of non- change synthetic compounds Water flow rate changes Agriculture Introduction of Tourism/Recreation pH changes radionuclides Military Electromagnetic Introduction of other Research changes substances Carbon Sequestration Change in wave exposure
Exogenic Unmanaged Pressures – Climate Change-Induced Physico-chemical Pressures Pressure Description Thermal regime change Temperature change (average, range, variability), climate change (large scale) Salinity regime change Temperature change (average, range, variability) due to climate change (large scale) Emergence regime Change in natural sea level (mean, variation, change range) due climate change (large scale) and isostatic rebound Water flow rate changes Change in currents (speed, direction, variability) due to climate change (large scale) pH changes Change in pH (mean, variation, range) due to climate change (large scale), volcanic activity (local) Change in wave Change in size, number, distribution and/or exposure periodicity of waves along a coast due to climate change (large scale).
Increased atmospheric CO 2 Physico-chemical Changes to Altered temperature water changes climate patterns regime Species re- Increase in relative distribution (Fig. Ocean sea level 3) acidification (Fig. 9) Loss of polar Physiographic Physiological ice-cover (Fig. changes (Fig. responses 10) 5) (Fig. 4) Changes to coastal hydrodynamics (Fig. 6) Changes to estuarine Changes to hydrodynamics NAO/EAO and (Fig. 8) rainfall run-off (Fig. 7) Figure 2 Primary drivers and consequences of marine global climate change (cross- referring to other figures)
Altered temperature regime Species distribution Species distribution change (D1, 4) change (D1, 4) Increased Northern species susceptibility to Southern species increase decrease in area (D1, alien & invasive in area (D1, 3, 4) 3, 4) species (D1, 2, 4) Increase of ‘rare’ / ’fragile’ Decrease of ‘rare’ / ’fragile’ species (D1) species (D1) Change in community structure & functioning (D1, 4, 6) Conservation management Fisheries repercussions (D1, 6) repercussions (D3) Figure 3 Species re-distribution and community response due to altered temperature regime (MSFD Descriptor denoted in brackets, see text)
Hazard & Risk Typology: Hazard leading to Risk (depending on assets) CC A) Surface hydrological hazards CC B) Surface physiographic removal by natural processes - chronic/long-term CC C) Surface physiographic removal by human ac]ons - chronic/long-term D) Surface physiographic removal - acute/short-term CC CC E) Climatological hazards - acute/short term CC F) Climatological hazards - chronic/long term CC – hazards CC G) Tectonic hazards - acute/short term caused or CC H) Tectonic hazards - chronic/ long term exacerbated by CC I) Anthropogenic microbial biohazards climate change or societal CC J) Anthropogenic macrobial biohazards responses to CC K) Anthropogenic introduced technological hazards climate change!! CC L) Anthropogenic extrac]ve technological hazards CC M) Anthropogenic acute chemical hazards CC N) Anthropogenic chronic chemical hazards 10
Summary: Cross rela]onships between CC impacts and GEnS Descriptors Topics Descriptor 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 I Altered temperature regime – species re- ü ü ü ü ü distribution and community response II Altered temperature regime – individual ü ü ü ü ü ü physiological/phenological response III Increased relative sea-level rise - ü ü ü ü ü physiographic changes IV Increased climate variability effects on ü ü ü ü coastal hydrodynamics V Changes to large scale climatic patterns ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü due to land run-off VI Increased relative sea-level rise ü ü ü ü changing estuarine hydrodynamics VII Increased ocean acidification and ü ü ü ü ü ü seawater physico-chemical changes VIII Loss of polar ice cover and global ü ü ü ü ü ü ü ü transport repercussions Sum categories 8 3 6 8 3 7 5 2 2 1 1 11
MSFD Wording In the proposed MSFD (CEC 2005), the highly variable nature of marine ecosystems and the changes over time in human activities and pressures, were cited as the reasons for having an adaptive, flexible and dynamic definition of GEnS. The wording had then changed in the final Directive to: ‘ In view of the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems and their natural variability, and given that the pressures and impacts on them may vary with the evolvement of different patterns of human activity and the impact of climate change, it is essential to recognise that the determination of good environmental status may have to be adapted over time .’ 12
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