Labor Market Reforms in the Last Decades : What have we learned and where are we h h l d d h heading ? g Andrea GARNERO
“We all know what to do. We just do not know how to get re ‐ elected after we have done it” after we have done it . Jean ‐ Claude Juncker The Economist 2007 The Economist , 2007
Crisis: a Catalyst of Reforms? Crisis: a Catalyst of Reforms? Reform Responsiveness Indicator averaged over 2011-14 g 0,9 GRC 0,8 0,7 , PRT PRT IRL EST 0,6 ESP NZL MEX POL SVK GBR 0,5 ISR CZE AUT HUN FIN CHN AUS AUS ITA ITA CAN ZAF 0,4 BRA FRA DNK KOR JPN USA RUS 0,3 NLD DEU TUR NOR CHL LUX 0,2 CHE SVN SWE SWE BEL 0,1 ISL 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Unemployment rate in 2010 The pace of reform is measured by the Reform Responsiveness Indicator, which is a weighted index of the extent to which policy measures have been put in place in line with Going for Growth recommendations. A higher value indicates that greater policy action has taken place in response to the recommendations. Source: OECD, Going for Growth 2016 .
1996 Collegato Lavoro Riforma Fornero Pacchetto Treu Protocollo del 23 Luglio & Riforma Prodi ‐ Decreto Dignitá Decreto Poletti Damiano Damiano 2007 2008 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009 2011 2012 2013 2010 1997 2000 2001 2004 Testo Unico Apprendistato Pacchetto Letta Pacchetto Letta Riforma del Lavoro if d l Riforma Biagi Jobs Act 1996 Pubblico e Privato 35 heures Equality Opportunity Act Trade Union Representative Decentralization of Loi Macron Reform Collective Bargaining Loi El Khomri Emplois d’Avenir System (loi du quatre mai 2004 ) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2007 2008 2009 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2003 2004 2005 2006 2010 2011 2012 2013 1997 1998 2000 2001 Fillon’s Pension Reform Contrat de Génération Ordonnances Sarkozy’s Paquet Contrat première & Loi sécurisation de Revenu de Solidarité Fiscal embauche 1996 l’emploi Active
Italy vs France Italy vs France Italy Italy France France • High and persistent unemployment • High and persistent unemployment • (Virulent) debate on « labour market • Debate on unemployment itself ( ) p y insecurity» ( precariato ) (« inverser la courbe »). • Symbol: Article 18 • Symbol: Thickness of the labour code • Horizon: 2/3 years at the very best • Horizon: 2/3 years at the very best • Horizon: 5 years • Horizon: 5 years • Vocal unions • Vocal unions • Pervasive role of judges • Pervasive role of judges Pervasive role of judges Pervasive role of judges • Vivid public debate (lavoce.info, • Some forms of ex ante and ex post Alesina/Giavazzi, etc.) evaluations + DARES + many groups of experts of experts
Ingredients of a successful reform Ingredients of a successful reform • Electoral mandate • Packaging • Leadership • Sequencing • Effective communication • Time • Time • Reform commitment • Winner and losers • Solid evidence base
Thank you! @AGarnero @ andrea.garnero@oecd.org (but here only personal opinions)
1996 Collegato Lavoro Riforma Fornero Pacchetto Treu Protocollo del 23 Luglio & Riforma Prodi ‐ Decreto Dignità Decreto Poletti Damiano Damiano 2007 2008 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009 2011 2012 2013 2010 1997 2000 2001 2004 Testo Unico Apprendistato Pacchetto Letta Pacchetto Letta Riforma del Lavoro if d l Riforma Biagi Jobs Act 1996 Pubblico e Privato 35 heures Equality Opportunity Act Trade Union Representative Decentralization of Loi Macron Reform Collective Bargaining Loi El Khomri Emplois d’Avenir System (loi du quatre mai 2004 ) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2007 2008 2009 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2003 2004 2005 2006 2010 2011 2012 2013 1997 1998 2000 2001 Fillon’s Pension Reform Contrat de Génération Ordonnances Sarkozy’s Paquet Contrat première & Loi sécurisation de Revenu de Solidarité Fiscal embauche 1996 l’emploi Active
EPL reforms EPL reforms Scale 0-6 Protection of permanent workers against individual dismissals 3,5 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 3 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [ ] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 2,5 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 2 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [ [CELLRANGE] ] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 1,5 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 1 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 0,5 [CELLRANGE] 0 Source: Carcillo, S., et al. (2019), « Assessing recent reforms and policy directions in France : Implementing the OECD Jobs Strategy », Documents de travail de l'OCDE sur les questions sociales, l'emploi et les migrations, n° 227, Éditions OCDE, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/657a0b54 ‐ en.
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