Labor Market Needs
Talent for Tomorrow Conceptual Framework Increase the number of • Become the best place to live and work people in Missouri’s • Connect all Missourians with work workforce More on this on next • Develop a labor market that works Increase the productivity slide… • Work in a 21st century way of Missouri’s workforce • Build infrastructure to drive economic development • Work together/compete together Compete to win • Create a new approach to economic development 3
Developing a Labor Market that Works • Increase overall educational attainment • Increase overall educational attainment for populations and areas with relatively low levels of education More on this on next • Prepare people for work in high-demand fields slide… • Offer more certificate and alternative credential programs • Ensure that those who hold degrees have the skills expected of people with degrees • Align educational requirements with actual job duties • Align K-12, higher education, and the workforce system • Expand apprenticeships and increase the number of apprentices 4
Zooming in on preparing people for work in high-demand fields… 1. Identify sectors of the economy Missouri needs to invest in to ensure long- term economic competitiveness. These are called “opportunity clusters.” 2. Identify the jobs needed to support each of those clusters. 3. Determine which of those jobs is the best long-term bet based on likelihood of automation and wages. 4. Support development or expansion of programs that prepare Missourians for those jobs. 5
Opportunity The first step is identifying the sectors of the economy Missouri needs to invest in to ensure long-term economic competitiveness. Clusters These are called “opportunity clusters.” The consultants we worked with identified target clusters through a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses, which are described on the next slide.
Methodology for Identifying Opportunity Clusters 1 2 3 4 Identified Narrowed tradable industries Explored the impact of Developed tradable industries in into megatrends Opportunity Clusters the economy “green shoots” 11 STEP HIGH CONCENTRATION BUT SHRINKING: HIGH CONCENTRATION AND GROWING: RETAIN AND RE-ROLE BUILD AROUND NICHES • Business support services Missouri Management, Administrative and Other 21 • Business labor organizations FS Services Industry Wider Missouri Economy • Management of companies • Travel agents • Administrative • Repair and maintenance services 22 IT Global 23 Megatrends T&L 33 ... • Administrative services • Social and community organizations • Print publishing • Waste collection LOW CONCENTRATION LOW CONCENTRATION .. .. AND SHRINKING: BUT GROWING: MAINTAIN SUPPORT SCALE-UP 5,000 10,000 50,000 100,000 jobs jobs jobs jobs Explored the impact of global Identified industries that are Narrowed the tradable industries Aggregated the “green shoots” megatrends on the Missouri tradable, i.e., those that produce into “green shoots” in which into Opportunity Clusters in which economy exportable goods and services Missouri is particularly strong Missouri has a regional advantage 7
Opportunity Clusters are groups of industries that may drive future economic — and job — growth in Missouri. Opportunity clusters are groups of interrelated industries that represent areas of growth and competitive advantage for Missouri. To focus its economic, education and workforce development strategies, Missouri sought to identify groups of industries that are growing and share talent and other inputs. Federal statistical agencies use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) system to group businesses into industries based on similarities in how they produce goods or services. Although NAICS codes enable important cross-sectional economic analysis, the classification system does not provide insight into the interconnectedness of firms across industries. Grouping NAICS codes into clusters captures the linkages between industries that share supply chains or inputs such as workers, information, or goods . Using the methodology in the next slide, Missouri industries meeting these criteria were grouped into the Opportunity Clusters below. In addition to the seven opportunity clusters, three cross-cluster priorities were identified because they support all or nearly all of the other clusters. Those cross-cluster priorities include healthcare, education, and manufacturing. Opportunity Clusters Cross-Cluster Priorities Aerospace and Agribusiness Automotive and Healthcare Defense Transportation Manufacturing Energy Solutions Education Entertainment and Financial Life Sciences Media Services 8
Opportunity Clusters include three types of industries. Opportunity Clusters at a Glance Total Jobs, 2016 2,144,762 Projected Job Growth Rate, 2016 - 2026 7.1% Median Annual Wage, 2017 $43,900 The Opportunity Clusters are composed of a mix of three different types of industries.* Tradable Cross-Cluster Local Tradable industries produce goods and services exportable Cross-cluster industries produce goods and services that may Local industries sell to or service local markets. The local to other states or countries. Tradable industries are the be exported to external markets or consumed in-state. Many industries chosen for inclusion were selected based on their foundation of the opportunity clusters, as they bring money cross-cluster industries are included in more than one relevance to the opportunity cluster. into the state, drive growth, and generate demand that spills opportunity cluster because they provide supportive services over to other industries. that are relevant to a broad range of clusters (e.g. legal services). Fast Facts Fast Facts Fast Facts Total Jobs, 2016 Total Jobs, 2016 395,950 Total Jobs, 2016 460,360 1,281,630 Job Growth Rate, 2016 - 2026 Job Growth Rate, 2016 - 2026 Job Growth Rate, 2016 - 2026 7.3% 1.3% 11.4% 9 *A full list of the industries in each Opportunity Cluster is included in the appendix.
Cluster Summary
Though the clusters were selected based on their potential to drive economic growth, they also offer opportunities for workers. Automotive & Energy Entertainment & Financial Life Cross-Sector Missouri Aerospace & Defense Agribusiness Transportation Solutions Media Services Sciences Manufacturing Employment 3,009,181 782,372 1,112,213 1,034,371 815,332 1,237,132 780,521 984,759 827,280 Employment, 2016 100% 26% 37% 34% 27% 41% 26% 33% 27% % of MO Employment Job Growth, 2016 – ▲ 7.3% ▲ 8.6% ▲ 8.2% ▲ 7.3% ▲ 9.4% ▲ 7.1% ▲ 10.4% ▲ 11.0% ▲ 8.5% 2026* Wages 2017 Median Wages $49,850 $62,800 $30,720 $81,360 $30,720 $63,000 $77,100 $46,010 $52,860 Difference Between ▲ 26.0% ▲ 63.2% ▲ 26.4% ▲ 54.7% ▲ 6.0% 0% -38.4% -38.4% -7.7% Cluster and MO Median Wages Note: Because cluster mapping is not mutually exclusive (sectors appear in more than one cluster), summing multiple clusters will provide values larger than state totals. Coming Soon: Healthcare and Many Opportunity Clusters offer higher wages and job growth rates than the state average. Education * The projected growth rates do not take into account future investments Missouri may make into the opportunity clusters. Investment could spur increased growth in cluster employment. 11 Source: Staffing Megamatrix (provided by MERIC)
Each of the following regional profiles includes 6 slides: 1. An overview 2. A summary of jobs in local businesses/industries that sell to or service local markets and are linked to the opportunity clusters. Regional 3. A summary of jobs in cross-cluster businesses/industries that produce goods and services that may be exported to Profiles external markets or consumed in-state and are linked to the opportunity clusters. 4. A summary of jobs in tradable industries, which produce goods and services exportable to other states or countries. 5. A summary of the number of jobs in the region’s tradable industries. 6. A comparison of jobs needed to support the opportunity clusters – including local, cross- cluster, and tradable – to the region’s current levels of educational attainment.
Northwest
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