Labor Market Information Office Each state produces employment and - PDF document

7/13/2018 Employment Trends and Future Needs Minnesota Service Cooperative Conference July 12 th , 2018 Luke Greiner Regional Labor Market Analyst Luke.greiner@state.mn.us Department of Employment and Economic Development Labor Market Information Office http://mn.gov/deed/data/ Labor Market Information Office • Each state produces employment and economic statistics in cooperation with U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics • LMI includes employment statistics, unemployment rates, wages and salaries, job projections and more • LMI is the foundation for informed, market-responsive planning 1

7/13/2018 https://mn.gov/deed/data/regional-lmi/ 2

7/13/2018 A few light reads • What to Know Before You Owe – https://mn.gov/deed/newscenter/publications/trends /september-2016/what-to-know.jsp • State of the State with educational requirements by region – https://mn.gov/deed/newscenter/publications/trends /june-2017/ • Factors that influence post-secondary education success – https://mn.gov/deed/newscenter/publications/trends /march-2018/ Local Look Blog https://mn.gov/deed/data/locallook/central/central-blog.jsp 3

7/13/2018 Question! • Did Minnesota produce more or less HS graduates in 2017 compared to 2007? – Slightly fewer at 58,379 in 2017 and 59,812 in 2007. (-2.4%) • Does Minnesota have more or less jobs in 2017 than in 2007? – We have almost 165K more jobs in 2017! (+6%) The Past 4

7/13/2018 • Welcome to 8 years of recovery 5

7/13/2018 Jobseekers Per Vacancy, Minnesota Vacancies Minnesota Unemployed 2007-2017 Jobseekers per Vacancy Number of Unemployed & Vacancies 250,000 8.0 7.4 213,643 7.0 Jobseekers Per Vacancy 200,000 6.0 5.2 5.0 150,000 108,623 3.5 4.0 2.9 100,000 2.6 122,929 3.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.4 41,397 50,000 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 - 0.0 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: DEED Job Vacancy Survey, LAUS program 6

7/13/2018 • Projected Labor Force Growth from 2020-2030 is an annual average gain of 7,400 workers 13 More Recently 7

7/13/2018 And you thought I was done. • What percentage of HS graduates enroll in higher education after graduation? 70% • What is the most demanded occupation in Minnesota? Retail salespersons • What share of full-time job openings in Minnesota require a bachelors degree or higher? 23%, 4 th Qtr. 2017 (19% bachelors, 4% advanced degree) 2016-2017 Employment Change in Minnesota 8

7/13/2018 4 th Qtr. Job Vacancies by Industry • 68% of openings required a HS diploma or less • 16% required a BS or more ( less than 1-in-6) • - Even 58% of FT openings don’t require any formal education beyond HS • - Still less than a quarter of FT openings require a 4-year degree or more 9

7/13/2018 Thinking Higher • Higher Education is extremely important for some jobs (think nurse, doctor, accountant, engineer) • For other jobs higher education is not necessary (think medical assistant, truck driver, carpenter, or customer service representative) • Decisions about higher education should be focused on the end goal (career). What do the students think? 10

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7/13/2018 The Demand-side of Education (Economy) 12

7/13/2018 Some Poor Employment Outcomes Suggest Surplus of Graduates or Inefficient Allocation Top 7 Employing Industries of Employment 2- years After Graduation - Graduates of 2013-2014 Share Share Naics Title Median Employed Naics Title Median Employed Health Care $17.71 23.0% Health Care $24.28 17.4% Certificates Bachelor's Other Services, Ex. Public Admin $14.17 10.8% Professional and Technical Services $23.52 10.2% Manufacturing $19.13 10.0% Elementary and Secondary Schools $23.24 8.5% Retail Trade $13.14 9.6% Manufacturing $24.93 6.6% Construction $23.37 8.2% Retail Trade $14.63 6.5% Food Services and Drinking Places $12.50 5.2% Finance and Insurance $22.72 6.4% Wholesale Trade $18.27 3.8% Public Administration $20.54 4.8% Health Care $21.34 31.4% Elementary and Secondary Schools $38.25 25.2% Retail Trade $12.17 9.7% Health Care $35.14 17.7% Associate's Graduate Manufacturing $19.36 6.5% Education except Elem. and Secondary Sc $25.53 10.8% Food Services and Drinking Places $13.49 5.8% Professional and Technical Services $34.18 8.7% Professional and Technical Services $17.28 5.5% Public Administration $26.82 6.2% Public Administration $19.61 4.7% Manufacturing $43.45 5.0% Social Assistance $12.90 4.1% Finance and Insurance $38.00 4.8% Source: DEED, GEO 13

7/13/2018 What about the kids? • Remember how many HS graduates enroll in college? – Guess what share of Minnesota graduates go directly into the workforce after completing high school. • 23% in 2016. • What are we doing for these kids? Are they prepared to meet employers expectations? Lets take a look! Minnesota Class of 2016 • Are these kids successful? 14

7/13/2018 Labor force stats by age in Minnesota 2012-2016 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates Labor Force Age In Labor Force Unemployment Rate Participation Rate 69.9% 4.8% Total, 16+ 3,013,834 149,981 52.3% 14.2% 16 to 19 years 83.5% 8.1% 20 to 24 years 302,880 1,248,471 88.2% 4.4% 25 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 659,633 87.2% 3.4% 513,200 72.3% 3.6% 55 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 116,980 27.1% 3.0% 20,865 6.0% 2.7% 75 years+ 15

7/13/2018 Deep Stuff I know your ready to leave, but… 16

7/13/2018 State of Minnesota Share of Jobs by Educational Requirements, 2017 No Formal Educational Requirement 1,780,560 High School 63.7% 135,780 4.9% Vocational Training 4.8% 133,710 Associate's Degree 19.0% 4.1% 3.5% Bachelor's Degree 531,350 98,740 Graduate or Professional 115,630 Degree 17

7/13/2018 Aligning Education with Future Needs? Employment Number Required Number Educational Requirement Growth by by 2014 2014 Share Required by 2024 2024 Share Level Educational Employment Employment Requirement High School or Less 1,948,401 65.7% 2,015,478 65.1% 3.4% Vocational Cert. 145,951 4.9% 158,160 5.1% 8.4% Associate’s 129,762 4.4% 141,142 4.6% 8.8% Bachelor's 533,637 18.0% 558,750 18.1% 4.7% Graduate 95,904 3.2% 103,801 3.4% 8.2% Not Classified 110,903 3.7% 116,325 3.8% 4.9% Total 2,964,558 3,093,656 4.4% Is Our Workforce ‘Educated’ Enough? Not in labor In labor force Educational 2024 Job Surplus/ force (2015; 16-64 level Requirements Shortage(-) (2015; 16-64 years old) years old) HS or less 851,393 2,015,478 -1,164,085 343,016 Vocational 670,567 158,160 512,407 145,428 Associate’s 346,716 141,142 205,574 49,191 Bachelor's 701,514 558,750 142,764 87,656 Graduate 326,489 103,801 222,688 33,920 Total 2,896,679 3,093,656 -196,977 659,211 18

7/13/2018 Check Out Graduate Employment Outcomes by College and Major mn.gov/deed/geo Not Destitute, No Degree • Transportation Inspectors, $105,358 • Power Distributors and Dispatchers, $93,504 • Elevator Installers and Repairers, $90,794 • Electrical Power-line installers, $83,437 • Hoist and Winch Operators, $83,737 • Real Estate Brokers, $71,898 • Loan Officers, $71,523 • Construction Trade Supervisor, $72,631 • Cost Estimators, $62,837 19

7/13/2018 Question? Local Look Regional Blog  Monthly blog covering regional economic trends  Workforce insights. Occupations In Demand, Unemployment Rates https://mn.gov/deed/data/locallook/central/central-blog.jsp https://mn.gov/deed/data/locallook/southwest/southwest-blog.jsp Minnesota Economic TRENDS  Quarterly magazine on economic topics  Subscriptions available free of charge or on-line http://mn.gov/deed/trends Minnesota Employment REVIEW  Monthly magazine on economic data and regional trends  Includes Minnesota business development  Available exclusively on-line http://mn.gov/deed/review THANK YOU! Let me know how I can help! Luke Greiner Regional Labor Market Analyst Central and Southwest Minnesota Labor Market Information Office Phone: (320) 308-5378 Luke.greiner@state.mn.us 20