Thank you for joining us – the webinar will start shortly Mortality or longevity? It’s a question of communication clubvita.net/glossary @ClubVita #longevitylexicon 11 December 2019 linkedin.com/company/club-vita 3pm UK / 10am ET
Introducing today’s panel Bruce Wolfe Douglas Anderson Head of Individual Retirement Founder Strategy Club Vita Insight Investment Rachel Lloyd Erik Pickett Director Chief Product Officer Message House Club Vita clubvita.net/glossary 2
Sources of confusion …. In April, the A few weeks later, the UK’s life insurers announced UK’s funeral providers reported the windfall release of £2bn profit warnings of longevity reserves (for their pre solvency from the much lighter winter deaths of II un-reinsured longevity), following the 2018/19. heavy winter deaths of 2016/17 and 2017/18. 3
Longevity or mortality? 4
Longevity or mortality? clubvita.net/glossary 5
Underestimating your life span 6
What age do you think you will live to? Significant under-estimation of the average, let alone the spread 7
Good news vs bad stories 8
The biological limit on life Are we nearly there yet? Source: Oppen, Vaupel , Science 2002, “Broken Limits to Life Expectancy” 9
History repeating itself? Some countries slowed down, but hardly falling off a cliff Changes in life expectancy from 65 (2001-2011) Changes in life expectancy from 65 (2011-2016) 2 4 IRE 3 1.5 KOR NLD KOR SVN UK FRA BEL LUX DEN SVN FIN POR NOR AUS CAN 1 2 ESP NOR AUT NZL JAP ITA CHE LUX NZL USA DEN CZE SWE GER CHE ICE GRE IRE CAN ISR ITA SWE ISR CZE ESP JAP FIN 0.5 AUS 1 GRE AUT NLD BEL GER TUR FRA UK POR MEX USA MEX 0 0 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 ICE -0.5 -1 Source: Club Vita calculations based on OECD, EuroStat and HMD data. Charts shows increase in period life expectancy (so no allowance for future improvements) from 65. Each point is a separate OECD or European country (those with period life expectancy for men of 16 years or less are excluded, as such countries generally have high premature mortality). Same countries shown on both charts. 10
Picture yourself when you get older Source: FaceApp 11
Age vs stage 12
Age is less associated with a specific life-stage than many of us assume 13
We carried out a survey specifically to understand attitudes to age and life stage • We carried out a nationally representative survey of 1,022 people • We evaluated awareness, attitudes and concerns about longer lives, as well as longevity language • We also tested actual marketing copy with age-specific language (e.g. 18-39 holidays) and tested this vs version without the age- specific references • Fieldwork was completed between 7-8 November 2018 14
Many of us feel that others make assumptions about us based on our age “Other people make assumptions about me based on my age.” % agreeing with this phrase 77% 68% 65% 63% 61% 58% 49% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Q23. To what extent do you agree or disagree..? (% Agree completely/somewhat agree) 15
Perceptions often don’t match the reality of people’s lives Perceived Age vs. Actual Age of participation Mean ages for each activity Perceived Actual 57 54 46 44 42 41 40 38 38 37 35 35 30 29 Growing your own Joining a gym Starting your own Using Facebook Taking an extended Shopping for the Going to a music vegetables business break to travel or latest fashion festival volunteer Q24/25. At what age do you think people typically do these things? Which of the following have you personally done in the last year? 16 (Mean scores)
Traditional age descriptors are less useful 100% 100% 92% 90% 60% 40% 17% 7% 4% 1% 1% 17 or younger 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ 'Young' 'Old' Q12/13/14. When you think about ‘old people’/’middle - aged people’/’young people’, which of the following age categories do you t hink of? (%)
The ‘middle - aged spread’ is real! 25 Middle Age 75 100% 100% 92% 90% 77% 60% 51% 42% 40% 17% 9% 7% 7% 4% 1% 1% 1% 17 or younger 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ 'Young' 'Old' 'Middle-aged' Q12/13/14. When you think about ‘old people’/’middle - aged people’/’young people’, which of the following age categories do you t hink of? (%)
Categorising people’s status is now difficult People with more than one occupational status Percentage in each primary occupation 23% have two or more occupational statuses 69% 3% 42% have three or 34% 26% more 17% 15% occupational statuses Employed full- Employed part- Self-employed Unpaid carer Student Retired time time Q5/6. Which of the following best describes your current status? Which of the following also apply to you? (%) 19
Retired…not tired! Which of the following best describes your current status? Which of the following also apply to you? (%) It would be really great to 37% 10% Composition of ‘retired’ learn a new instrument, to respondents try something different of retired have one of retired (but) not especially as retirement other occupational tired are working may be lasting longer. status. full or part time Female, 65-74 58% 42% 5% 32% I am a very creative and industrious person and of retired have two or of retired (but) not there are still a lot of things more other tired are I would like to accomplish. occupational statuses. volunteering Retired RnT Female, 65-74 20 Q5/6. Which of the following best describes your current status? Which of the following also apply to you? (%) Occupation e.g. include part time or full time work, volunteering, studying.
We tested 2 versions of the same message Age-specific Fast, fresh, and fun adventures that never slow down. Designed for young, budget-minded travellers between ages 18 to 39, 18-to- Thirtysomethings tours maximize time and money by squeezing the most out of a destination. This ain't your typical big-bus tour, though. Small groups, insider access, and personal freedom to follow the whim of the moment are the order of the day, every day. Non-age-specific Fast, fresh, and fun adventures that never slow down. Designed for budget-minded travellers our tours maximize time and money by squeezing the most out of a destination. This ain't your typical big- bus tour, though. Small groups, insider access, and personal freedom to follow the whim of the moment are the order of the day, every day. 21
There are opportunities to reflect longevity better in comms Fast, fresh, and fun adventures that never slow down. Designed for young, budget-minded travellers between ages 18 to 39, 18-to- Thirtysomethings tours maximize time and money by squeezing the most out of a destination. This ain't your typical big-bus tour, though. Small groups, insider access, and personal freedom to follow the whim of the moment are the order of the day, every day. Appeal Relevance 74% 63% 70% 58% 50% 40% 33% 7% 18-39 40+ 18-39 40+ Age specific Non-age specific Age specific Non-age specific Q31/32. How appealing or unappealing do you find this statement? (% Very/fairly appealing) How relevant is this statement to you? (% 22 Completely/somewhat relevant)
Age- and stage-based targeting can alienate the target audience Fast, fresh, and fun adventures that never slow down. Designed for young, budget-minded travellers between ages 18 to 39, 18-to- Thirtysomethings tours maximize time and money by squeezing the most out of a destination. This ain't your typical big-bus tour, though. Small groups, insider access, and personal freedom to follow the whim of the moment are the order of the day, every day. Between ages 18 to 39, 18- Showing dislikes by audience to-Thirtysomethings This ain’t squeezing young 18-39 40+ Q29/30. Please highlight all parts of the text that you dislike. (%) 23
Assumptions can needlessly limit the true scale of the opportunities Our over 50s holidays are not about bucket lists. They are holidays that allow you to take the time to immerse yourself in a culture, an activity or a landscape. They're about having a special 50 th (or 60 th …) birthday celebration that really means something. They're about going solo and not giving a damn. So, forget the bucket. Just book it. Appeal Relevance 71% 70% 60% 59% 64% 53% 58% 18% 18-49 50+ 18-49 50+ Age specific Non-age specific Age specific Non-age specific Q31/32. How appealing or unappealing do you find this statement? (% Very/fairly appealing) How relevant is this statement to you? (% 24 Completely/somewhat relevant)
The flaw of averages 25
Risk of outliving your savings Since UK’s “Freedom & Choice” law in 2014, only around 10% of retirees with DC pensions have bought annuities. Personalised life expectancies help, but the life expectancies are just a special form of average and disguise the underlying story of variability. 1 in 10 chance of living more than 10 years longer than your life expectancy, even after personalisation So if you want to be more than 90% confident of not running out of money, you need to budget for 10 years beyond life expectancy It might be more economic to buy an annuity after all! 26
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