Is the Basin Plan on track to deliver its predicted environmental - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Is the Basin Plan on track to deliver its predicted environmental outcomes? Dr Anne Jensen Healthy Rivers Ambassador

Basin Plan Process 2006-2012 • new era of water reform (and hope!) from November 2006 • recovering over-allocation of water given high priority • key water reforms agreed during drought years • but very slow progress recovering water, 1 st 500 GL overdue by 2 years • Draft Plan not well sold to irrigation communities, angry protests, lack of Thought it was fixed!! social support to facilitate change • Basin Plan finally signed in 2012

By 2018, Details Emerging of Real Effects of Plan • compromise volume of 2750 GL can’t deliver environmental outcomes in Plan, potential for even lower volume • SDL adjustments up to 650 GL -- supply projects and ‘equivalent environmental outcomes’ part of Basin Plan Act 2007 • Efficiency projects up to 450 GL in Act • enormous effort in detailed technical investigations and development of methodologies for implementation, few opportunities for public input • for people outside the system, first now The devil is in the detail!! understanding realities of Basin Plan

Plan of Compromise • 2750 GL can only deliver 10 out of 18 flow targets for 4 Living Murray icon sites (need 3200 GL plus constraints fixed to not enough water to deliver targets deliver 17 out of 18 flow targets) • Science says minimum 3800-4000 GL needed to maintain current degraded health • Science says 7600 GL needed to return river systems to healthy state • river systems still recovering from major impact of Millenium Drought 2000-2010, need extra water for recovery • floodplain condition improved after 2010-12 E-watering site showing healthy red gum saplings & 2016 floods but declining again and mature redgum that died in the Millenium Drought: note 2016 flood level on the trunk

What are the Basin Plan Targets? No obvious list, not easy to identify! • 4 over-arching objectives (protect & restore ecosystems, functions & resilience, ensure coordinated management of e-water) • 2 objectives for water quality & salinity • 2 major objectives for SDLs (with 7 sub-sets) • 7 intermediate targets (to 30 June 2019) – no loss or degradation in flows, connectivity, assets, functions, CLLMM regime, condition & recruitment of native species • 7 long term targets from 1 July 2019 require improvement in same parameters which targets to evaluate? • 7 targets for 450 GL, including floodplain & habitats in Southern Basin, flows to Lower Lakes, Coorong & Murray Mouth, & salt export target • 16 flow & biodiversity outcomes = environmental watering targets

Expected outcomes of Basin Plan after 2019 for River Flows & Connectivity • maintain base flows at least 60% of natural levels • improve overall flow by 10% more into Barwon – Darling, 30% more into River Murray and 30 – 40% more to Murray mouth, keep open to sea 90% of time • maintain connectivity between rivers and floodplains in the Paroo, Moonie, Nebine, Warrego and Ovens • improve connectivity with bank-full and/or low floodplain flows by 30 – 60% in Murray, Murrumbidgee, Goulburn and Condamine – Balonne • maintain Lower Lakes above sea level • adequate flushing to export average 2 m tonnes of salt from River Murray system into Southern Ocean each year

Expected outcomes of Basin Plan after 2019 for Native Vegetation, Waterbirds & Fish • maintain current extent & condition of floodplain forests, woodlands and shrublands; improve condition of southern river red gum • maintain current species diversity of all waterbirds and migratory shorebirds, increased abundance of waterbirds by 20 – 25% by 2024 • improved distribution of key short and long- lived fish species, improved breeding success, improved populations of short-lived species, long-lived species, Murray cod and golden perch, improved movement

12 Basin Plan ecological elements to measure targets Targets set to mimic natural frequency of watering as often as possible

Can Basin Plan Meet Environmental Targets? Reviews by Goyder Institute • ecosystems still stressed -- extra water needed to support continued recovery from stressed condition • EWRs for red gum & black box not met at 2750 GL/y • EWRs for Chowilla and Coorong icon sites only met at 4000 GL/y • even 4000 GL/y not enough for black box communities on outer floodplains

Framework for Returning Environmental Water

Recovered Water: Entitlement vs Allocation vs Delivery • Total water purchased 1227 GL (cap of 1500 GL), total water recovered for Basin Plan 2107 GL • only 530 GL since Plan signed • Total holdings in entitlements 2672 GL, with long term average annual yield of 1836 GL ( to end Feb 2018 ) • Delivery 2015-16: 1721 GL Doing a great job within limitations • Delivery 2016-17: 1148 GL • Delivery to end Feb 2018: 1012 GL • No further purchases after 30 Jun Source ( accessed 03/04/2018 ): 2017 if SDL adjustments accepted http://www.environment.gov.au/water/cewo/about -commonwealth-environmental-water

All Darling Flows environmental 25 GL environmental delivery 233 GL 3 GL use of return flows water delivered Murrumbidgee River 228 GL environmental delivery 329 GL 14 GL Return flow 2017-18 70 GL return flow 14 GL to Feb 18 70 GL 28 GL Lower Broken Creek 49 GL 25 GL environmental delivered 7 GL 20 GL return flow Hattah Lakes 112 GL environmental delivery Hume Releases 395 GL environmental delivery 88 GL use of return flows 346 GL return flow 12 GL use of return flows = 568 GL 49 GL return flows (CEWO) Goulburn River 278 GL of environmental delivery 730 GL 321 GL return flow (all e- Gunbower Creek water) 15.8 GL environmental delivery 13 GL use of return flows Campaspe River 28.5 GL environmental delivery 2 GL use of return flows 28 GL return flow 2.3 GL return flow

E-watering: On-ground Results 2011 flood germinants: red gum seedlings/saplings at e-watering site vigorous growth from 2013 (~2 m left) to 2017 (~ 4 m right) Potential to gradually replace hundreds of dead mature red gums 2-500 years old (Site protected by SIS scheme)

Waterbirds in Worrying Decline – Eastern Australian Wetlands Survey Annual Reports 2016-17 (Porter, Kingsford & Brandis, 2016) Update 2017 survey : reduced wetland area with only 4 wetlands full, 14 partially full, 24 dry; increased total numbers to 200,000 but still well below average; breeding events much below average

Lower Darling Flows Essential for Native Fish • lack of flows 2014 -16 threatened loss of lower Darling River fish populations in key nursery area, especially callop • environmental flows transferred from other river valleys to create low flows in spring 2016, then Downstream sections of increased to create food sources and nursery sites Lower Darling River dry for for larvae, best cod breeding event in 20 years! more than 500 days • rain-fed river flows continued to allow fish to grow and migrate • environmental flows saved key nursery area and Darling fish populations able to migrate to other Basin rivers New science 2017 that Lower Darling is critical habitat for all native fish in Basin! STOP PRESS April 2018: Lower Darling running dry again!! BREAKING NEWS 16 April: 23.8 GL in e-flows on way down Barwon River, NSW special order to protect e-flows en route to Lower Darling!

SDL Adjustments Process for Southern Basin • SDL adjustments are being proposed through SDLs are ‘volume of extraction that will not 36 engineered or operational projects to have negative impacts on natural deliver ‘ equivalent environmental outcomes ’ environments and functions of rivers, with less water waterways, groundwater and wetlands of • MDBA stated it is ‘confident that the Murray- Darling Basin’ environmental outcomes can be achieved with less water’ • based on independent scientific review • included ‘ecological equivalence scoring’ • scored all projects as one package, not individually, scored at reach scale • compared 2750 GL to 2100+ GL • recommended total reduction is 605 GL

Equivalent Environmental Outcomes?? flows from different sources don’t regulators fill gaps between floods, don’t replace natural floods: replace flows from rivers: • • increase soil moisture storage eg South-East flows into Coorong • • benefits to vegetation, less to aquatic no details on project to change animals management of Menindee Lakes, potential for major downstream effects on Lower • capacity to mimic environmental cues limited Darling, impact on migration & breeding of • don’t provide equivalent conditions for all native fish dispersal of seed and eggs • pipeline from River Murray to Broken Hill • barriers to fish passage, don’t provide flowing may reduce priority to maintain flows in ML conditions & Lower Darling • natural rate of recession too fast • can trigger false starts to breeding of waterbirds