Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models Presentation by P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region October 24-26, 2002, Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi IIM Ahmedabad

Presentation Agenda • Why Integrated Environment Assessment? • What is Integrated Environment Assessment? Example: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change • What are Integrated Assessment Models and Component Models? Example: Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis • What kind of results and insights do Integrated Assessment provide? Example: Results and Insights from Integrated Assessment of Climate Change • Why and what kind of capacity building for Integrated Assessment in developing countries? IIM Ahmedabad

Why Integrated Environment Assessment? IIM Ahmedabad

Multiple Interfaces of Environment Assessment Policymaking Models and Process Frameworks Integrated Assessment Knowledge disciplines Atmospheric Geophysics Meteorology Economics Chemistry Biology Policy sciences Hydraulics Climatology Ecology Geochemistry IIM Ahmedabad

What to Integrate? • Diverse Scientific Disciplines • Diverse socio-economic scenarios • Macro and micro-economies • Local and regional boundaries • Short and long time horizons • Local and global environmental concerns • Rural and urban perspectives • Regional emissions and impact assessment • Probability and Decision under uncertainty • Technology IIM Ahmedabad

Why Integrated Assessment? • To assemble, summarise, organise, interpret and reconcile pieces of existing knowledge • To add value through integration (but not to add knowledge) • To develop full range of policy outcomes • To enhance Communication between scientific disciplines and policy formulation IIM Ahmedabad

Why Integrated Assessment Models? • Framework for conducting research ensuring consistency pointing to areas where more information is required • IAMs are good ‘forecasting’ and ‘heuristic’ tools • Communications tools between different sciences and between science and policy • Insights from investigations in the domains of the sub- components IIM Ahmedabad

What is Integrated Environment Assessment? Example Integrated Assessment of Climate Change IIM Ahmedabad

IIM Ahmedabad Understanding “Climate” versus “Climate Change” Climate Issues

Integrated Climate Change Dimensions Atmospheric Climate & Composition Sea Level Ecosystems Human Activities IIM Ahmedabad

Integrated Framework for Climate Change IIM Ahmedabad

What are Integrated Assessment Models? Example Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis IIM Ahmedabad

AIM Model System AIM/Energy /Technology/Country AIM/Ecosystem /Water/Impact Temperature A bottom-up A set of ecosystem Precipitation Sunshine technology selection models, including a model of energy use vegetation dynamics Land use Water resource and emissions at model, a water Socio-economic Crop country and local level resource model, an indicator Productivity agricultural Impact on food demand productivity model and a health impact Adaptation strategy model AIM/Bottom-up AIM/Top-down AIM Family A bottom-up technology A general-equilibrium- & land use model for type world economic Asia-Pacific region model Future AIM/Material Environmental AIM/Trend Environ- economic trend burden mental Burden Environmental Future Industry environmental Green Purchase trend Industry Korea A environment- A reduced-form Consumer China economy integrated model to project Environment Fund India model with material future socio- Recycle Wastes balance and recycling economic Thailand Japan Environmental Burden process modules trends and Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) environmental Technology assessment Technology needs change for all Research on new technologies 42 countries IIM Ahmedabad

Strategic Database Innovational Wor k Syste m Outputs Outputs Outputs AI M-Trend AI M-Top-down AI M-Energy Monitoring & Processing Policy Common Data making Database from IEM Statistics AI M-Material AI M-Ecosystem Outputs Outputs IIM Ahmedabad

MiniCAM An Integrated Modelling Framework Climate & Sea Atmospheric Level Composition SCENGEN MAGICC Ecosystems Human Activities AGLU & MERGE ERB-AGLU

MiniCAM COMPONENTS ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL MAGICC MAGICC Atmospheric Chemistry Climate MAGICC MAGICC--Ocean Ocean Carbon · temperature Cycle · sea level HUMAN ACTIVITIES ECOSYSTEMS ERB ERB MAGICC Un-managed Energy Other Human Terrestrial Eco-system System Systems Carbon Cyc. & Animals ALU (none) ALU ALU Ag., L'stock Coastal Crops & Hydrology & Forestry System Forestry IIM Ahmedabad

IIM Ahmedabad Component Models? What are