Introduction to AIM/Impact model Kiyoshi Takahashi National - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Introduction to AIM/Impact model Kiyoshi Takahashi National Institute for Environmental Studies

Items of the presentation  Overview of AIM/Impact model – Structure – Examples of the assessed results  Introduction to AIM/Impact [Country] – Structure, Objective – Current status of development

AIM/Impact in AIM Framework

Objective of AIM/Impact  Projection of potential impacts of climate change on sensitive sectors.  Consideration of linkages among affected sectors.  Proposition of effective adaptation measures to cope with climate change.  Accounting feedback effects on GHGs concentration and climate system.

Framework of the AIM/Impact model AIM/Climate AIM/Climate HEALTH POP Health impacts of Population, Fertility and Mobility Environmental CLIMATE Change Radiation, Energy balance, Temperature and ENV Sea level rise ENERGY CYCLE Environmental Pressure and counter-measure Energy technology OCEAN and resources Chemistry of GHGs CGE Energy and AIM/Emission AIM/Emission carbon budget of Supply and demand equilibrium Ocean Of goods, energy, water, land and labor LAND FOOD WATER Supply infrastructures Land-use allocation and Production and demand Demand GHGs emission HYDRO VEG Surface water balance Vegetation dynamics Routing module

Characteristics of AIM/Impact  Area focused: Whole Asia to Global  Spatial analysis (Modules run on GIS)  Consistency between socio-economic scenario and climate change scenario.  Integration of emission (WG3), climate (WG1) and impact and adaptation (WG2) in the institute.

Computation framework GRASS on UNIX Original data GRASS database Climate data GRASS commands Variable spatial resolution Data import interface GCM results Meshed raster data Soil property Land-use Climate Output Output Input Population GIS data scenario data data data etc. Climate scenario GRASS model GRASS Analysis creator commands commands UNIX shell program Developed with Visualization F77 or C language Average, etc. Analysis on PC

Collaboration with climate model Atmosphere Climate model Emission model Ocean Land Surface Socio-Econ. & Emission Scenario Water Landuse Resource Crop Socio-Econ. Productivity Factors Food Demand And Supply Impact model Adaptation

Simplified framework Global average Climate data GCM outputs temperature increase Climate module Socio-economic Future climate change scenario Water balance module Water resource module Water demand module Water scarcity evaluation Water impact Crop productivity module Global trade module Agricultural impact Natural ecosystem module Health impact module

Crop productivity Climate data Soil data Chemical Temperature characteristics Precipitation Slope Radiation Texture Wind Humidity Human Input Irrigation Changes in the potential productivity of rice from 1990 to 2050 under the climatic conditions Machinery projected using the CCSR/NIES GCM Fertilizer

Agricultural trade JPN CHN IDI CAN USA E_U Producer price change (%) Rice -0.01 -1.58 17.96 -40.16 -0.06 -4.93 Wheat 4.91 8.47 125.11 -13.10 4.76 8.92 Production Demand Other grains 1.81 0.79 1.80 -43.59 -1.46 -3.36 Other crops -0.01 -0.28 1.90 2.76 -0.10 -0.05 Livestock -0.19 -0.09 2.84 -1.22 -0.59 -0.04 Crop product- Population Other agricultural products -0.15 -0.01 0.30 -0.35 -0.07 0.04 Manufacture 0.03 -0.12 -1.10 0.61 0.03 -0.02 ivity change Services 0.03 -0.16 Consumer -0.93 0.69 0.02 -0.02 Production change (%) Rice 0.11 -0.25 -1.76 105.99 0.23 2.03 Tech. Improve preference Wheat -6.60 -3.97 -7.64 115.07 2.87 -3.64 Other grains -15.56 -1.39 -1.33 89.41 -4.04 -6.50 Other crops 0.11 -0.07 -4.25 -2.26 0.25 -0.03 Labor Livestock 0.09 -0.24 -2.27 0.94 0.03 -0.22 Trade Other agricultural products 0.11 -0.27 -4.73 0.69 0.04 -0.22 Land Manufacture -0.01 0.31 -0.37 -1.62 0.03 0.05 Services 0.00 0.00 -2.62 -0.02 0.01 0.01 Tariff etc. Consumer price index (%) 0.001 0.001 6.047 0.513 0.017 -0.010 Income change per capita (%) 0.026 -0.236 -0.617 0.833 0.026 -0.009 Social welfare change (%) 0.022 -0.219 -4.892 0.343 0.009 0.003

River discharge Surface runoff River routing Precipitation Elevation Evaporanspiration Temperature Soil characteristics 2100 1990 Annual river discharge in 1990 and 2100 (UIUC climate model)

Water demand (withdrawal) Driving force Spatial distribution Population density Irrigated area Cropland distribution Population Water supply coverage GDP or IVA

Water consumption in India (scenario analysis)

Surface runoff as Water supply Field capacity Evapotranspiration Vegetation Temperature Soil Wind speed Radiation Humidity Change of surface runoff (2050s – 1980s)

River basin for water scarcity assessment

Scarcity index = Withdrawal / Surface runoff Water scarcity 1.2 0.25 1 0.2 0.8 0.15 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.05 0.2 0 0 2050(1980) 2055(1985) 2050(1980) 2055(1985) Ganges Mekong CCC LINK (1980-89) ECHAM4 Ten-year average (1980-89) CCSR/NIES

Malaria Reproduction rate of malaria vector Temperature Soil moisture Expansion of the area affected by malaria

Diarrhea / capita Water supply coverage Temperature Diarrhea Water supply coverage GDP/capita Environmental 1.5 2000 A1B A2 Diarrheal incidence per capita per year consideration B1 B2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 EMRO_B EURO_B EURO_C EMRO_D EURO_A SEARO_D AFRO_D AFRO_E AMRO_B AMRO_D WPRO_B AMRO_A WPRO_A Diarrhea incidence per capita per year in 2000 (bar graph) and GBD Region in 2055 for 4 SRES scenarios ( □ A1B, △ A2, ◇ B1, ○ B2).

Forest vegetation IS92c scenario with low climate sensitivity Forest diminishment Temperature Precipitation Evapotranspiration IS92a scenario with medium climate sensitivity Max. velocity of forest movement IS92e scenario with high climate sensitivity Diminishment of forest

From global scale to national scale  Increasing attention to national-scale impact studies. – AIACC (Assessment of the Impact of and Adaptation to Climate Change Project) – National Communication  Concrete adaptation measures can be evaluated only on an appropriate spatial scale which corresponds the stakeholders.

Features of AIM/Impact [Country]  Package of models, tools and data for scenario analysis of national-scale climate change impact assessment.  Executable on PC-Windows (no need to learn UNIX & GRASS)  Bundled datasets for basic assessment.  Readily achievement of spatial analysis.  Detailed manual documents.

Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]

Development of input GIS data for impact assessment models GIS data trimmed for Input GIS data for impact Global GIS data national scale assessment assessment models Ready-made global GIS data Monthly climate ： Temperature, Rainfall, Observed climate (LINK) Cloudiness, Windspeed GCM results (IPCC-DDC) Soil (DSMW, FAO) GIS tool for spatial interpolation GIS tool for trimming away Socio-economic: GIS tool for input data Population (NGCIA) ex-focused area Population distribution (Scenario Creator) development Cropland and Irrigated land Cropland / Irrigated land Originally imported GIS data trimmed at focused area Originally imported global GIS data Soil: Regional climate model Soil unit, soil texture, results Additional GCM results slope, soil phase, field Region-specific soil data Observed climate from capacity, elevation, Population distribution with other data sources albedo finer resolution Socio-economic and GHG emission scenarios GHG emission scenarios A1 A2 Change of annual mean global Originally imported data temperature Ready-made data bundled in the package B1 B2 Scenarios of population change Tools and Models and other socio-economic factors

Impact assessment models Input GIS data for impact Output GIS data of impact assessment models assessment model Monthly climate ： Temperature, Rainfall, Penman-PET Cloudiness, Windspeed Thornthwaite-PET Potential crop productivity Penman-PET model Socio-economic: Surface runoff Thornthwaite-PET model Population distribution River discharge Potential crop productivity model Cropland / Irrigated Water demand Surface runoff model land Malarial potential River discharge model Holdridge vegetation classification Water demand model Soil: Koeppen vegetation classification Malarial potential model Soil unit, soil texture, Vegetation move possibility Holdridge vegetation classification slope, soil phase, field Koeppen vegetation classification capacity, elevation, Vegetation move possibility model albedo Model parameters Characteristics of crop growth Soil constraints on crop production Snow melt temperature Rate of water discharge in river Potential rate of vegetation move Ready-made Originally imported

Analysis of GIS data and outputs