Integrated System Plan: Preliminary modelling outcomes workshop 10 October 2019
Workshop Welcome & Overview 35 min Agenda • Context for developing the Integrated System Plan • Purpose and approach for today's workshop • Overview of stakeholder engagement Update & Workshop 1 95 min • What's changed since 2018 ISP • Changing energy resources • Group activity and report back Morning tea break 20 min Update & Workshop 2 75 min • Preliminary Grid Outcomes • Group activity and report back Final feedback and Next steps 10 min 4
Welcome & Overview • Context • Purpose and objectives • Recap of the 2019-20 ISP work program 5
Integrated The 2020 Integrated System Plan (ISP) will provide actionable roadmap for navigating Australia’s secure and reliable energy System future. Its objectives are to : Plan 1. Maximise value to energy customers by designing a future- oriented system that minimises total system-cost, enhances optionality to manage key risks and uncertainties and to adapt to possible policy choices. 2. Leverage existing technologies and emerging innovations in customer-owned distributed energy resources (DER), virtual power plants (VPP), large-scale generation, energy storage, networks, and coupled sectors such as gas, water and the electrification of transport 3. Inform and engage policy makers, investors, customers, researchers and other energy stakeholders in navigating the transition of Australia’s future system. 6
A whole of system plan 7
Workshop Important part of the enhanced stakeholder engagement for this ISP (across AEMO sites): Objectives Provide stakeholders an overview of • preliminary outcomes to date. Explore potential gaps, inconsistencies and • opportunities to improve; seek stakeholder input to modelling. Invite stakeholder feedback on mechanisms • for maximising their informed engagement through to the Final report in mid-2020. 8
Workshop With over 100 participants located across AEMO offices in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Logistics Adelaide (and some via VC), our approach: Will focus on 2 x update presentations of the • early stage modelling outcomes Each update will be followed by breaking-out • into workshop mode at each of the individual sites (and online) Following each workshop session there will • be a national report back from each site Due to logistics and time constraints, AEMO • staff will endeavour to answer questions locally during the breakout sessions. 9
1. Be future-oriented: think with a 10-year+ Workshop perspective (i.e. avoid short-termism). Protocols 2. Engage as Australians: transcend purely proprietary interests. 3. Monitor your mental models: our patterns of thinking can unintentionally cripple creativity. 4. Provide focused critique: the modelling outcomes are preliminary and necessarily imperfect – AEMO wants your early feedback. 5. Focus in on the early modelling outcomes rather than inputs and scenarios developed with stakeholders over the last six months 6. Exercise mutual respect: diversity of perspective is critical to development of a robust 2020 ISP . 10
You should all have access to: Maximising An emailed copy of the slides • your A personal reflections / questions sheet • feedback Please feel free to: Take a moment to familiarise yourself with the • reflections / sheet now; Identify the workshop option you want to • participate in (either A or B); and, During the presentations make notes on your • observations that arise. Please leave them on your table if you’re happy for us collect them in between sessions. 11
Stakeholder Engagement 12
Recent feedback from a range of stakeholders: Recent It's important to present the results relative to the • Stakeholder 2018 ISP i.e. What’s changed and why? Feedback Illustrate intra-day behaviour of storage usage, • charging/discharging patterns Some perceived the 2018 ISP to be very transmission- • centric and suggested greater prominence to storage, REZs and DERs. There is a desire to show timing of the projects in the • 2020 ISP , or a range of timing across the scenarios A separate summary for policy makers would be • welcomed The ISP development process can seem to some like a • 'black box' and is not always well understood 13
Stakeholder engagement and consultation process to date Aug ESOO published 5 Feb 20 Mar Forecasting and Submissions on Aug Deliverables planning forecasting and Final scenario and consultation planning assumptions published consultation report published Feb Mar Apr May Jun 3 Jun 19 Feb 3 Apr 12 Apr 21 May Stakeholder Briefing webinar to Stakeholder Consumer ISP Scenario and Engagements and workshop to summarise workshop to engagement Assumptions consultations address questions submissions explore scenarios approach and ISP briefing of clarification and resolve issues workshop Aug Response to stakeholder consultation published 14
2020 ISP stakeholder engagement plan – Events Oct 2019 to Feb 2020 12 Dec DRAFT ISP published for Deliverables consultation Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan Late Jan Workshops to 1-8 Oct 10 Oct invite feedback on In-person PRELIMINARY Draft ISP , address updates with a modelling workshop concerns sample of for stakeholder stakeholders feedback Dec - Feb Formal consultation Engagements and consultations period 15
2020 ISP stakeholder engagement plan – Events Mar – Jun 2020 Mar Late Jun Collation of FINAL ISP consultation Deliverables published submissions Mar Apr May Jun May Jun Apr Executive Final ISP launch Small group presentations meetings as ahead of launch required Engagements and consultations 16
Update & Workshop 1: What has changed since the 2018 ISP? • The changing energy resources of a future NEM • 17
Preliminary nature of Our stakeholder engagement process strives • the for early and ongoing collaboration with a diverse range of national stakeholders outcomes throughout ISP development. The modelling presented is early stage and • preliminary , and therefore subject to change. Your collaboration is essential to develop • better outcomes for the draft ISP . 18
Modelling Stages Scenarios Scenarios considered individually considered together Detailed Long- Short-Term Integrated Optimal Plan Network Analysis Term Model Model Model development Iterative process required to maximise value to energy customers by designing a future-oriented system that minimises total system-cost and enhances optionality to manage key risks and uncertainties and to adapt to possible policy choices. 19
Five scenarios reflecting different rates of Decentralisation and Decarbonisation Decentralisation >>> Today's workshop focuses primarily on Central scenario I n ISP, there will be a strong focus on using scenarios and sensitivities to provide information on risks, resilience, and trade-offs Decarbonisation >>> 20
What’s changed since the 2018 ISP? 21 21
Key 1. Growth in demand for electricity 2. Broader DER considerations changes 3. Generator retirements from 2018 4. Technology costs For comparison of demand forecasts: The 2018 ISP is based on 2017 Electricity • Forecasting Insights (March Update) The 2019 ISP is based on the 2019 ESOO • 22
Energy 250000 conservation 200000 Operational Consumption (GWh) and 150000 efficiency has flattened the 100000 expected 50000 energy consumption 0 2018 ISP 2019 ISP Generally, consumption and peak demand are no longer the drivers of future investment 23
Peak demand and minimum demand expectations have shifted 24
Rooftop PV A wider reflects higher range of DER start but slower development in uptake than the medium term 2018 will be in the Central investigated Scenario: across the ISP Slightly lesser scenarios battery storage capacity in Central: 25
Slower EV The effect of developments in DER on the Central power system will consider a wider range of DER DSP expectations Demand Side Participation 6000 are higher, uptake levels Projected Summer DSP (MW) 5000 potentially 4000 than 2018 lowering grid 3000 2000 peak 1000 requirements 0 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 2037-38 2038-39 2039-40 2040-41 2041-42 2042-43 2043-44 2044-45 2045-46 2046-47 2047-48 2048-49 2049-50 2018 DSP 2019 DSP 26
Coal generators Liddell 25,000 Liddell Yallourn W Callide B may leave Vales Point B Yallourn W Yallourn W 20,000 more rapidly Eraring Yallourn W Gladstone Capacity (MW) 15,000 than Bayswater Tarong North Tarong Mount Piper Kogan Creek Tarong 10,000 assumed in Stanwell Stanwell Stanwell Loy Yang B Stanwell 2018* 5,000 Loy Yang A 0 *2019 closures based on Financial Year Ending expected closure dates Remaining Capacity New South Wales Queensland Victoria 2018 aggregated closure schedule provided by generators 27
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