10/14/2011 Integrated Earth-System Approach IGBP Earth System - PDF document

10/14/2011 Integrated Earth-System Approach IGBP Earth System Science for Global Sustainability: Connecting Regional to Global. Sybil P. Seitzinger Executive Director, IGBP Stockholm, Sweden Integrated Earth-System Approach Integrated Earth-System Approach Land Ocean Integrated Earth-System Approach Integrated Earth-System Approach Atmosphere Land- Atmosphere 1

10/14/2011 Integrated Earth-System Approach Integrated Earth-System Approach Land-Ocean Ocean- Atmosphere Integrated Earth-System Approach Integrated Earth-System Approach Integration- Synthesis National Committees and IPOs “Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.” Ban Ki ‐ Moon 2

10/14/2011 The Great Acceleration Population – a planet under pressure US Bureau of the Census (2000) International database IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Total real GDP Foreign direct investment Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press World Bank (2002) data and statistics IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Damming of rivers Water use World Commission on Dams (2000) Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water Resources IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 3

10/14/2011 Fertiliser consumption Urban population International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002) The State of the World’s Cities (2001) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Paper consumption Motor vehicles Pulp and paper international (1993) Global environmental outlook (2000) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Telephones International tourism Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950 ‐ 95 World Bank World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trends IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 4

10/14/2011 Shrimp farm production Domesticated land IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Planetary response Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115 ‐ 4128 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Atmospheric N 2 O concentration Atmospheric CH 4 concentration Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921 ‐ 2925 Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219 ‐ 2222 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 5

10/14/2011 Northern hemisphere average surface Ozone depletion temperature Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759 ‐ 762 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Tropical rainforest and woodland loss Natural climatic disasters IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 Fisheries exploitation Coastal zone nitrogen flux IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 6

10/14/2011 Biodiversity loss Great acceleration IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004 IGBP Strategic Vision IGBP Strategic Vision Fundamentals of the Earth system To provide essential scientific leadership and knowledge of Impacts of environmental disturbances the Earth system to help guide society onto a sustainable Bio ‐ geophysical and social diversity pathway during rapid global change Resource management Mitigation and adaptation Forecasting  Observing  Thresholds  Coastal  W ater  Science policy Three Pillars 2000 year regional climate reconstruction • research and synthesis • science-policy interface • communication and education 7

10/14/2011  Observing  Thresholds  Coastal  W ater   Observing  Thresholds  Coastal  W ater  Forecasting Science policy Forecasting Science policy Past climate in South America Land cover affects climate • Europe heat waves 2003- 2006 TT-Anomaly wrt 1901-1995, o C – dry, warm conditions • Grasslands contribute extreme heating – soil-moisture depletion Lake sediments Marine sediments • Implications future Ice cores Historical – forests help ammeliorate documents Tree rings Glaciers – prolonged/severe heat waves Corals Boreholes Villalba et al. 2009 Palaeo-3 (special issue) Neukom et al., 2010, Climate Dynamics I GBP Synthesis Teuling et al. 2010 Nature Geoscience IGBP Synthesis IGBP Synthesis Topics • Least Developed Countries • Cryosphere Bringing together biogeochemists, • Geoengineering impacts with biodiversity, • Megacities and coasts social scientists, • N and climate • LULCC and climate economists, • Air pollution and climate policy makers, ..... • Adaptation • Changing nutrient loads I GBP Synthesis I GBP Synthesis Forecasting  Observing  Thresholds  Coastal  W ater  Forecasting   Thresholds  Coastal  W ater  Science policy Observing Science policy Primary production trends • Global NPP decrease Land Systems, Global Terrestrial NPP trends Change and Sustainability • SH decrease – drought (2000 – 2009) • Implications terrestrial Open Science Conference C sink Arizona State University (ASU), October 17-19 th 2010 • Space-based and in situ observations M. Zhao et al., 2010 Science 8

10/14/2011 Forecasting  Observing  Thresholds  Coastal  W ater  Forecasting  Observing  Thresholds  Coastal  W ater  Science policy Science policy Science-policy interaction Sustainability in urbanizing planet Urbanization and Built Environments • If 3.2 billion additional people by 2100 Land Grab in Africa • Mostly in cities of 1 million • Magnitude of land deals • Require 3200 cities of 1 million over 89 years • Throughout Africa • 89 years = 32485 days • Teleconnections and land-scarcity • 3200 cities over 32485 days • ~ 1 new city of 1 million every 10 days Friis and Reenberg, 2010 Karen Seto 2011 Forecasting  Observing  Confining  Coastal  W ater  Forecasting  Observing    W ater  Science policy Thresholds Coastal Science policy Report on Atmospheric Chemistry in Air Pollution & Climate: Megacities: Asia Chapter I GBP Synthesis Forecasting  Observing  Thresholds  Coastal  W ater  Forecasting  Observing  Thresholds  Coastal  W ater  Science policy Science policy Air Pollution & Climate: Coastal vulnerability, Freshwater security • 24 of 33 deltas sinking 2 nd Workshop OBJECTIVES • Multiple stresses Air Pollution and Create a science-policy – urbanization Climate: A Science- dialogue – water, mineral mining – land use/hydrology Policy Dialogue – sea level rise Define the air pollution and With a focus on Asia climate change challenge • Future projections in Asia 7 – 10 November 2011 Taipei, Taiwan Develop a strategy for a multidisciplinary Sponsored by the Taiwan programme for Asia Environmental Protection Agency Syvitski et al. 2009 Nature Geoscience I GBP Synthesis For more information contact megan@igacproject.org 9