In the aerospace industry a move towards probabilistic design - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

In the aerospace industry… ”…a move towards probabilistic design practices has been recognized as a potential game-changer , as it is understood to reduce costs , risks and lead times , while increasing the confidence in analysis tools, and the quality and reliability of products“ Nasa report by Zang et al. (2002) 2

A different simulation approach… Deterministic design Probabilistic design Nominal operation Adds variation modeling Worst-case scenarios Uses probability distributions, etc. Safety factors Allows some probability of failure Easy to implement in simulation Difficult to implement in simulation 3

Probabilistic design → Robust design → Geometry assurance 4

Probabilistic design → Robust design → Geometry assurance “Robust design is an engineering methodology that aims at minimizing the effects of variation without eliminating the variation itself . “ Phadke (1995) 5

Probabilistic design → Robust design → Geometry assurance “Geometry assurance is a set of activities aimed at reducing the effects of geometric variation and increasing the precision of functional attributes of products.” Söderberg et al. (2006) 6

Part variation

→ Part variation Assembly variation

→ Part variation Assembly variation

Assembly variation → → Part variation Functional variation

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Aerodynamic loads Thermal loads Structural loads

Fabricated assembly Cast , forged and sheet metal parts Welded together 15

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Conceptual Modeling Conceptual Modeling (Adapted from: Oberkampf, 2002) 20

Mathematical Modeling Conceptual Modeling 21

Computer Programming Mathematical Modeling Conceptual Modeling 22

Discretization & Algorithm Selection Computer Programming Mathematical Modeling Conceptual Modeling 23

Uçú ∆ ‚#pDy‰È˜ fl˜- :⁄vå{¨·”vg/jBöÚöFõSö˚[b[ ∫ OÃ>—÷Ífiz¸G € - ú4<YyJÛT…i⁄ÈÇ”ìgÚœåùïù}~.˘‹` € ¢ ∂ {ÁcŒfljoÔ ∫ t·“E ˇãÁ;º;Œ\Ú ∏ tÚ € ÂW ∏ WöØ:_mÍtÍ<˛ì”O«ªúªöÆ π \k π Óz Ω µ{f˜Èû7Œ›Ù Ω Numerical Solution yÒˇ÷’û9=› Ω Ûzo˜ ≈ ˜ıfl›~r'˝ŒÀªŸw'Ó ≠ ºOº_Ù@ÌAŸC›á ’?[˛‹ÿÔ‹�j¿w†Û—‹G˜ÖÉœ˛ëıèCèôèÀÜ ÜÎû8>99‚?r˝È¸ßCœdœ&û˛¢˛ÀÆ/~¯’Î ◊ Œ—ò— °óÚóìøm|•˝Í¿ÎØ €∆ ¬ ∆ -æ…x31^ÙV˚Ì¡w‹wÔ£flO‰| Discretization & Algorithm Selection �(ˇh˘±ıS–ß˚ìììˇòÛ¸c3- € cHRM ⁄Ï›wú]eµˇÒœzû Ω OõÙfiÅP“CTÏEØ•# ≈ vm\A§£"%4Ei" 5Ñ™¢`¡ÇTTÈ)Ñ@í…Ã){ÔÁYø?ˆôI@Ó˝›{•¨7ØyMrfrÍÊü Ôk ≠ Ô#™ä1 ∆ cå1 ∆ cå1/TŒficå1 ∆ cå1 ∆ ÛBfñ1 ∆ cå1 ∆ cåyA ≥ Computer Programming Àcå1 ∆ cå1 ∆ º†YÄeå1 ∆ cå1 ∆ c^– ,¿2 ∆ cå1 ∆ cå1/h`cå1 ∆ cå1 ∆ ò4 ∞ å1 ∆ cå1 ∆ cà öX ∆ cå1 ∆ cå1ÊÕ,cå1 ∆ cå1 ∆ ÛÇñÿ[`å1 ∆ cå1 ∆ Û‚ ≤ ‡ùG ∫ ëC Mathematical Modeling ít⁄îâ£&N6fÚËëS«é™OŸ|“ ∏ ´µ! √ :˝[{fiÚµÉ⁄ˇìèôæ‚M" ¥~}í¸_ø^QU˚‘ç1 ∆ cå1 ∆ c^Äfº·ì ≤ È ∆ £”ßLª ≈ ¶„ ∑ ò1mÙ Conceptual Modeling 24

Solution Representation Numerical Solution Discretization & Algorithm Selection Computer Programming Mathematical Modeling Conceptual Modeling 25

Research Question I: What barriers to implementing geometry assurance practices can be identified in the aero engine industry? Research Question II: How can geometry assurance methods be implemented in multidisciplinary simulations in industrial settings? Research Question III: What role should geometry assurance play in the early phases of aerospace component design? 26

Research Question I: What barriers to implementing geometry assurance practices can be identified in the aero engine industry? 27

Barrier #1: 28

Barrier #1: Model Form Error 29

Model Form Error 30

Barrier #2: 31

Barrier #2: Discretisation Error 32

Discretisation Error 33

NX ANSYS Discretisation Error 34

NX ANSYS Discretisation Error 35

Barrier #3: 36

Barrier #3: Backwards Incompatibility 37

? Deterministic Probabilistic Backwards Incompatibility 38

Barrier #4: 39

Barrier #4: Forward Applicability 40

? Forward Applicability 41

Research Question II: How can geometry assurance methods be implemented in multidisciplinary simulations in industrial settings? 42

#1: The parametric point method 43

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Reconstructing the geometry… 53

Models 1 st gen -Papers A and B 2 nd gen -Paper C 3 rd gen - Papers D-G 54

#2: Integrated simulation environment 55

Simulation workflow NX C# #1 #2 #3 56

Simulation workflow #1 NX NX C# #2 #3 #4 57

#1 Simulation workflow #2 NX NX C# #3 #4 #5 58

#2 Simulation workflow #3 NX NX C# #4 #5 #6 59

#2 Simulation workflow #3 NX NX C# #4 Ansys #5 #6 60

#2 Simulation workflow #3 Ansys NX C# #4 NX #5 #6 61

#2 Simulation workflow #3 Ansys NX NX Uçú ∆ ‚#pDy‰È˜ fl˜- C# :⁄vå{¨·”vg/jBöÚöFõSö˚[b[ ∫ OÃ>— ÷Ífiz¸G € - ú4<YyJÛT…i⁄ÈÇ”ìgÚœåùïù}~.˘‹` € ¢ ∂ {ÁcŒfljoÔ ∫ t·“EˇãÁ;º;Œ\Ú ∏ tÚ #4 € ÂW ∏ WöØ:_mÍtÍ<˛ì”O«ªúªöÆ π \k π Óz Ω µ{f˜Èû7Œ›Ù Ω yÒˇ÷’û9=› Ω Ûzo˜ ≈ ˜ıfl›~r'˝ŒÀªŸw'Ó ≠ ºOº_Ù@ÌAŸC›á ’?[˛‹ÿÔ‹�j¿w†Û— ‹G˜ÖÉœ˛ëıèCèôèÀÜ ÜÎû8>99‚?r˝È¸ßCœdœ&û˛¢˛ÀÆ/~¯’ Î ◊ Œ—ò— °óÚóìøm|•˝Í¿ÎØ €∆ ¬ ∆ -æ…x31^ÙV˚Ì ¡w‹wÔ£flO‰| Ansys Uçú ∆ ‚#pDy‰È˜ fl˜- NX :⁄vå{¨·”- vg/jBöÚöFõSö˚[b[ ∫ OÃ>— #5 ÷Ífiz¸G € - ú4<YyJÛT…i⁄ÈÇ”ìgÚœåùïù}~.˘‹` € ¢ ∂ {ÁcŒfljoÔ ∫ t·“EˇãÁ;º;Œ\Ú ∏ tÚ € ÂW ∏ WöØ:_mÍtÍ<˛ì”O«ªúªöÆ π \k π Óz Ω µ{f˜Èû7Œ›Ù Ω yÒˇ÷’û9=› Ω Ûzo ˜ ≈ ˜ıfl›~r'˝ŒÀªŸw'Ó ≠ ºOº_Ù@ÌAŸC ›á’?[˛‹ÿÔ‹�j¿w†Û— ‹G˜ÖÉœ˛ëıèCèôèÀÜ ÜÎû8>99‚?r˝È¸ßCœdœ&û˛¢˛ÀÆ/~¯ ’Î ◊ Œ—ò— °óÚóìøm|•˝Í¿ÎØ €∆ ¬ ∆ -æ…x31^ÙV˚ Ì¡w‹wÔ£flO‰| #6 62

#2 Simulation workflow #3 Ansys NX Uçú ∆ ‚#pDy‰È˜ Ansys fl˜- C# :⁄vå{¨·”- vg/jBöÚöFõSö˚[b[ ∫ OÃ>— ÷Ífiz¸G € - ú4<YyJÛT…i⁄ÈÇ”ìgÚœåùïù}~.˘‹` € ¢ ∂ {ÁcŒfljoÔ ∫ t·“EˇãÁ;º;Œ\Ú ∏ tÚ #4 € ÂW ∏ WöØ:_mÍtÍ<˛ì”O«ªúªöÆ π \k π Óz Ω µ{f˜Èû7Œ›Ù Ω yÒˇ÷’û9=› Ω Ûzo ˜ ≈ ˜ıfl›~r'˝ŒÀªŸw'Ó ≠ ºOº_Ù@ÌAŸC ›á’?[˛‹ÿÔ‹�j¿w†Û— ‹G˜ÖÉœ˛ëıèCèôèÀÜ ÜÎû8>99‚?r˝È¸ßCœdœ&û˛¢˛ÀÆ/~¯ ’Î ◊ Œ—ò— °óÚóìøm|•˝Í¿ÎØ €∆ ¬ ∆ -æ…x31^ÙV˚ Ì¡w‹wÔ£flO‰| NX Uçú ∆ ‚#pDy‰È˜ fl˜- NX :⁄vå{¨·”vg/jBöÚöFõSö˚[b[ ∫ OÃ>— ÷Ífiz¸G € - #5 ú4<YyJÛT…i⁄ÈÇ”ìgÚœåùïù}~.˘‹` € ¢ ∂ {ÁcŒfljoÔ ∫ t·“EˇãÁ;º;Œ\Ú ∏ tÚ € ÂW ∏ WöØ:_mÍtÍ<˛ì”O«ªúªöÆ π \k π Óz Ω µ{f˜Èû7Œ›Ù Ω yÒˇ÷’û9=› Ω Ûzo˜ ≈ ˜ıfl›~r'˝ŒÀªŸw'Ó ≠ ºOº_Ù@ÌAŸC›á ’?[˛‹ÿÔ‹�j¿w†Û— ‹G˜ÖÉœ˛ëıèCèôèÀÜ ÜÎû8>99‚?r˝È¸ßCœdœ&û˛¢˛ÀÆ/~¯’ Î ◊ Œ—ò— °óÚóìøm|•˝Í¿ÎØ €∆ ¬ ∆ -æ…x31^ÙV˚Ì ¡w‹wÔ£flO‰| #6 63

#2 Simulation workflow CFD-post #3 Ansys NX Ansys Uçú ∆ ‚#pDy‰È˜ fl˜- CFD-post C# :⁄vå{¨·”- vg/jBöÚöFõSö˚[b[ ∫ OÃ>— ÷Ífiz¸G € - ú4<YyJÛT…i⁄ÈÇ”ìgÚœåùïù}~.˘‹` #4 € ¢ ∂ {ÁcŒfljoÔ ∫ t·“EˇãÁ;º;Œ\Ú ∏ tÚ € ÂW ∏ WöØ:_mÍtÍ<˛ì”O«ªúªöÆ π \k π Óz Ω µ{f˜Èû7Œ›Ù Ω yÒˇ÷’û9=› Ω Ûzo ˜ ≈ ˜ıfl›~r'˝ŒÀªŸw'Ó ≠ ºOº_Ù@ÌAŸC ›á’?[˛‹ÿÔ‹�j¿w†Û— ‹G˜ÖÉœ˛ëıèCèôèÀÜ ÜÎû8>99‚?r˝È¸ßCœdœ&û˛¢˛ÀÆ/~¯ ’Î ◊ Œ—ò— °óÚóìøm|•˝Í¿ÎØ €∆ ¬ ∆ -æ…x31^ÙV˚ Ì¡w‹wÔ£flO‰| CFD-post NX Uçú ∆ ‚#pDy‰È˜ fl˜- NX :⁄vå{¨·”vg/jBöÚöFõSö˚[b[ ∫ OÃ>— ÷Ífiz¸G € - #5 ú4<YyJÛT…i⁄ÈÇ”ìgÚœåùïù}~.˘‹` € ¢ ∂ {ÁcŒfljoÔ ∫ t·“EˇãÁ;º;Œ\Ú ∏ tÚ € ÂW ∏ WöØ:_mÍtÍ<˛ì”O«ªúªöÆ π \k π Óz Ω µ{f˜Èû7Œ›Ù Ω yÒˇ÷’û9=› Ω Ûzo˜ ≈ ˜ıfl›~r'˝ŒÀªŸw'Ó ≠ ºOº_Ù@ÌAŸC›á ’?[˛‹ÿÔ‹�j¿w†Û— ‹G˜ÖÉœ˛ëıèCèôèÀÜ ÜÎû8>99‚?r˝È¸ßCœdœ&û˛¢˛ÀÆ/~¯’ Î ◊ Œ—ò— °óÚóìøm|•˝Í¿ÎØ €∆ ¬ ∆ -æ…x31^ÙV˚Ì ¡w‹wÔ£flO‰| #6 64

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