Impli licatio ions s of of climate e change on on glacier r touri rism d demand in Iceland Johannes T. Welling, University of Iceland Responsible Tourism in Destinations Jyväskylä, Finland - 9-10 Jun 2016
Photo by Ville Miettinen
“Current glacier extents are out of balance with current climatic conditions, indicating that glaciers will continue to shrink in the future even without further temperature increase (high confidence)” (IPCC AR5 WG1, 2013)
Research framework Goal & Methodology 1 . Identify climate change induced impacts on glacier tourism and adaptive responses on regional scale Method : glacier site observation + interviews glacier Examine the implications of tour operators (9) climate change for future glacier visitation in Iceland . 2 . Develop future exploratory scenarios of glacier sites Source : regional glacier volume development scenarios 3 . Assess potential impact of glacier tourism demand in near future Method : Visitor Questionnaire (N=574)
Study area: Vatnajökull region Nr. Glacier sites Main recreation activities Visitors (2015) 1 Skaftafellsjökull Sightseeing, educational hikes 50.430 2 Svínafellsjökull Sightseeing, glacier hikes, ice-climbing 88.471 4 Fjallsárlón Sightseeing, boat tours 157.907 6 Jökulsárlón Sightseeing, boat tours 510.827 8 Heinabergsjökull Sightseeing, glacier hikes, kayak tours 6.710 10 Hoffellsjökull Sightseeing, ATV tours 20.368
Climate change impacts: Glacier thinning and recession
Climate change impact: pro-glacial zone extension Source: Magnússon et al. 2012
Impacts on glacier tourism 1. Accessibility Distance to glacier Steepness Blocking routes 2. Hazards Rock-fall Moraine landslides
Impacts on glacier tourism 3. Scenery degradation Glacier coverage glacier view ‘disappearance’ 4. Recreation opportunities Glacier lake boat tours Geomorphological heritage (geomorphosites)
Adaptation measures 1. Technical means: bridges, transport vehicles 2. Rerouting and changing sites 3. Diversification: extending or changing tour portfolio
Quantitative research: Visitor survey (N=574)
Results: activities conducted at glacier sites (N=574) Performed activity Respondents % Period of performance Sight-seeing glacier 425 74% All year around from distance Guided hike on glacier 204 36% All year around Glacier lake boat tour 85 15% Summer Ice cave tour 63 5% Winter Ice climbing 38 3% Summer Snow-mobile tour 28 2% Summer Super jeep tour 28 2% All year around
Respondents’ motivations to visit glacier sites Motivation to visit glacier site N=570 Personal spiritual values A story to tell Visit glacier before disappears Friends and Family Experience peace and calm Change from everyday life Thrilling experience Be close to nature See glacier in real-life Experience new things 0 1 2 3 4 5 Likert scale: 1 =not important at all – 5 = very important
Respondents’ attitudes towards climate change I am concerned about climate change (%) Climate change is happening now (%) 50 70 45 69 60 40 50 35 37 34 30 40 25 30 20 21 20 15 21 10 10 1 1 8 5 0 3 5 Totally Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree 0 disagree Totally disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree
Respondents’ attitudes towards climate change Climate change is a result of human activity Climate change is result of natural causes (%) (%) 60 50 45 50 52 40 35 40 30 32 25 30 24 20 28 20 20 15 10 13 15 11 10 5 2 3 0 0 Totally Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree Totally disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Totally agree disagree
How willing are you to visit a glacier site if……. (N=568) you have to walk 1,5 hrs to come to the glacier margin you could not come within 150 m of the glacier Not willing Not willing 23 % Willing Willing 28 % 42 % 50 % Neutral Neutral 27 % 30 %
How willing are you to visit a glacier site if……. (N=568) the glacier was for a big part covered with sand it is necessary to take a guided tour for a safe and stones passage to and on the glacier Willing 21 % Not willing Willing 31 % Not willing 41 % 47 % Neutral 32 % Neutral 28 %
How willing are you to visit a glacier site if……. (N=568) you have to cross a lake with a commercial boat to it is only possible to come to the glacier margin by come to the glacier margin commercial truck or jeep Willing Willing 23 % 28 % Not willing Not willing 42 % 52 % Neutral Neutral 25 % 30 %
Conclusions and further research • Climate change has already and can have considerable impacts on future visitation of the glacier sites. • Disclaimer: - multiple factors - to say is not the same as to do
Thank you for your attention!
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