ICES Widely (1 Oct. 2010) Advisory Drafting Group (ADG) - PDF document

Advisory Process Advisory Process Pelagic RAC – London, 11 October 2010 Advisory Committee (ACOM) Approve draft advice; consistency assurance WCWIDE Advice ( 1 scientist from each of the 20 ICES (30 Sep. 2010) Release member countries + chair & 4 vice-chair ) ICES Widely (1 Oct. 2010) Advisory Drafting Group (ADG) Distributed Stocks ADGWIDE Draft the advice, based on the peer 15-17 Sept. 2010 reviewed assessments ( scientists & reviewers ) Advice Review Group (RG) Review the work carried out by the EG; RGWIDE quality assurance & peer review ( scientists independent of the EG ) Reidar Toresen ACOM Member WGWIDE ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework ICES MSY Harvest Control Rule (HCR) Based on an F MSY and a biomass safeguard against low spawning stock biomass F MSY is the fishing mortality that in the long- F advice term will maximize yield MSY B trigger F MSY MSY B trigger is a biomass reference point that triggers a cautious response: “A cautious biomass triggering action to maintain a stock within a desirable stock size range” SSB SSB x F MSY /MSY B trigger ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework MSY Transition MSY Transition Moving from Current F to MSY in 2015 in 5 steps. F MSY-HCR-transition values are capped at F pa to maintain consistency with the PA F transition (2011) = Transition to MSY takes into account the general (0.8 • F (2010) ) + (0.2 • F MSY-HCR(2011) ) understanding that managers want a gradual transition But no higher than F pa However, ….

ICES MSY framework ICES MSY framework Advice summary table MSY Transition – September updates ….there may be situations where a gradual Management Objective (s) Landings (2011) transition is not appropriate because the stock is Less than XX T • Transition to an MSY approach at a low level (e.g., below B lim ) and the outlook is with caution at low stock size for a further decline (e.g., as a result of recruitment failure) unless fishing mortality is • Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment Less than X T ( Precautionary Approach ) reduced more rapidly. • Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment and Y t In such cases, ICES may advise on a more rapid achieve other objective(s) of a management plan (e.g., catch stability) transition or application of F MSY-HCR as soon as possible. ICES Widely Distributed Stocks Advice Norwegian spring-spawning herring Latest advice available: Norwegian spring-spawning herring http://www.ices.dk/advice/icesadvice.asp Norwegian spring-spawning herring Blue whiting (Combined stock) Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic Horse mackerel (Western stock) Horse mackerel (Southern stock) Horse mackerel (North Sea) Norwegian spring-spawning herring Norwegian spring-spawning herring F 2007 2008 2009 Management Objective (s) Landings in 2011 12000 2009 MSY approach F MSY below at F MSY at F MSY 10000 Less than 1.17 million with caution at low stock size tonnes 8000 SSB in 1000 t F PA /F lim below at F pa at F pa 6000 Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment Less than 1.17 million ( Precautionary Approach ) 4000 tonnes 2000 Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment SSB 2008 2009 2010 0 and achieve other objective(s) of a Less than 0.988 million 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 management plan (e.g., catch stability) tonnes MSY Fishing Mortality (ages 5-14) above above above B trigger B PA /B lim above above above

Norwegian spring-spawning herring Norwegian spring-spawning herring Landings Recruitment (age 0) 2000 500 Recruitment in billions 400 Landings in 1000 t 1500 SSB ('000 tonnes) Fishing mortality: 5-14 Recruitment. Age: 0 300 14000 0.30 600 1000 Billions 200 12000 0.25 500 500 100 10000 0.20 400 0 0 8000 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 0.15 300 6000 Fishing Mortality Fpa Spawning Stock Biomass Blim 0.10 200 0.25 12000 4000 FMSY Bpa 10000 0.20 0.05 F weighted (ages 5-14) 100 MSYBtrigger 2000 8000 SSB in 1000 t 0.15 0 0.00 0 6000 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.10 4000 0.05 2000 0.00 0 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Norwegian spring-spawning herring Blue whiting (Combined stock) Landings Recruitment (age 0) 2500 800 2000 Recruitment in billions 600 Landings in 1000 t 1500 400 1000 200 Blue whiting (Combined stock) 500 0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Fishing Mortality Fpa Spawning Stock Biomass Blim 4.0 15000 FMSY Bpa F weighted (ages 5-14) MSYBtrigger 3.0 10000 SSB in 1000 t 2.0 5000 1.0 0.0 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Blue whiting (Combined stock) Blue whiting (Combined stock) Management Objective (s) Landings in 2011 50 700 to 223 000 for transition Transition to an MSY approach 8000 to the MSY framework by F 2007 2008 2009 2009 with caution at low stock size 7000 2011 and 2015, respectively F MSY Above Above Above 6000 SSB in 1000 t F PA /F lim Between Between Between 5000 4000 Cautiously avoid impaired Zero landings 3000 SSB 2008 2009 2010 recruitment 2000 MSY B trigger Above Below Below ( Precautionary Approach ) 1000 B PA /B lim Above Between Below 0 Cautiously avoid impaired 40 100 tonnes 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 recruitment and achieve other Fishing Mortality (ages 3-7) objective(s) of a management plan (e.g., catch stability) For the advice related to the transition to an MSY approach, the lower end of the range reflects concerns with the current status of the stock and indications of recruitment failure.

Blue whiting (Combined stock) Blue whiting (Combined stock) Landings Recruitment (age 1) 3000 70 SSB ('000 tonnes) Fishing mortality: 3-7 Recruitment. Age: 1 60 2500 Recruitment in billions Landings in 1000 t 50 8000 0.70 70 2000 Billions 40 7000 1500 0.60 60 30 1000 6000 20 0.50 50 500 10 5000 0.40 40 0 0 4000 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 0.30 30 3000 Fishing Mortality Flim Spawning Stock Biomass Blim 0.20 20 2000 0.6 8000 Fpa Bpa 0.5 0.10 10 1000 FMSY 6000 MSYBtrigger 0.4 SSB in 1000 t 0 0.00 0 F(ages 3-7) 0.3 4000 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.2 2000 0.1 0.0 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Blue whiting (Combined stock) Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic 0.6 mean F 0.4 Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic 0.2 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 8000 6000 SSB (1000 t) 4000 2000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 60000 Recruitment (10^6) 40000 20000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic ICES advises that the existing measures to protect the North Sea spawning component should remain in place. Management Objective (s) Total catch in 2011 These are: Transition to an MSY approach Less than 672 000 tonnes with caution at low stock size There should be no fishing for mackerel in Divisions IIIa and IVb,c at any time of the year; Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment Less than 672 000 tonnes ( Precautionary Approach ) There should be no fishing for mackerel in Division IVa during the period 15 February–31 July; Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment and Between 592 000 and achieve other objective(s) of a management 646 000 tonnes The 30 cm minimum landing size at present in force in plan (e.g., catch stability) Subarea IV should be maintained.

Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic Landings Recruitment (age 0) 1000 10 2009 800 8 4500 Recruitment in billions Landings in 1000 t F 2007 2008 2009 4000 600 6 F MSY Above Above Above 3500 400 4 SSB in 1000 t 3000 F PA Above Above At Fpa 200 2 2500 0 0 2000 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 SSB 2008 2009 2010 1500 1000 MSY Fishing Mortality Flim Spawning Stock Biomass Blim Above Above Above 500 0.50 3500 B trigger Fpa Bpa 0 3000 0.40 FMSY MSYBtrigger B PA Above Above Above 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 2500 SSB in 1000 t F(ages 4-8) 0.30 Fishing Mortality (ages 4-8) 2000 1500 0.20 1000 0.10 500 0.00 0 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic Horse mackerel (Western stock) SSB ('000 tonnes) Fishing mortality: 4-8 Recruitment. Age: 0 3500 0.50 10 Billions 0.45 9 3000 0.40 8 Horse mackerel (Western stock) 2500 0.35 7 0.30 6 2000 0.25 5 1500 0.20 4 0.15 3 1000 0.10 2 500 0.05 1 0 0.00 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 Horse mackerel (Western stock) Horse mackerel (Western stock) 2009 Management Objective (s) Landings in 2011 F 2007 2008 2009 5000 4500 MSY approach Less than 229 000 F MSY Below Below Below 4000 with caution at low stock size tonnes F PA /F lim 3500 Undefined Undefined Undefined SSB in 1000 t 3000 Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment na 2500 ( Precautionary Approach ) 2000 SSB 2008 2009 2010 1500 MSY 1000 Undefined Undefined Undefined 500 B trigger Cautiously avoid impaired recruitment 181 000 tonnes 0 B PA /B lim 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 and achieve other objective(s) of a Undefined Undefined Undefined Fishing Mortality (ages 1-10) management plan (e.g., catch stability)