ICES advice for 2017: widely distributed pelagic stocks Carmen - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ICES advice for 2017: widely distributed pelagic stocks Carmen Fernández, ICES ACOM vice-chair For PelAC (The Hague, October 5, 2016)

Basis of ICES Advice Management Plan / Strategy Basis for ICES Advice Consistent with Precautionary Approach & agreed by competent authorities as potential basis for advice No ICES MSY approach No ICES PA approach

Basis of ICES Advice Stock categories (based on available knowledge) Advice basis 1 Stocks with an accepted analytical assessment MSY approach and forecast 2 Stocks with an analytical assessment and forecast MSY approach accepted for trends only 3 Stocks with abundance or biomass indices indicative Precautionary approach trends MSY approach being developed 4 Stocks with reliable catch and biological data Precautionary approach MSY approach being developed 5 Only landings available Precautionary approach 6 Only landings available and largely discarded Precautionary approach

ICES MSY approach (Category 1 stocks)  Maximize long term average yield  Safeguard against low SSB  Stay within precautionary boundaries (WKMSYREF 2, 3 & 4, 2014-15) ICES MSY Advice Rule (AR): F MSY B trigger more caution F MSY below B lim SSB at start of advisory year

Advice framework for stocks in categories 3-6  Implemented since 2012  Various approaches depending on available information  Advice Rules providing quantitative advice are available for all stock categories ICES MSY approach for Category 1 stocks

Category 3 (stocks with abundance index) Advice based on previous advice [or recent catch or landings], ICES MSY approach modified according to index information; typically last 5-year index trend: average of index in last 2 years Advice = previous advice x average of index in 3 previous years also incorporating: 1. Uncertainty cap (20% change limit, to dampen noise) 2. Precautionary buffer (20% reduction if status in relation to reference points unknown --- exceptions if significant increases in stock size or reductions in exploitation) o Advice normally does not change every year

Advice framework for stocks in categories 3-6  Now in the process of developing MSY proxy reference points for stocks in categories 3 & 4  Done for stocks in Western Waters (EU special request, 2016) ICES MSY approach for Category 1 stocks  Work for stocks in other regions to follow shortly

Catch advice o ICES advice: ICES MSY approach A. if discards can be quantified  catch advice B. if discards unknown (possibly qualitative information)  catch advice if information indicates discard rate < 5% (discards negligible in the context of precision of advice)  landings advice if information very uncertain or discard rate considered to be > 5%

Terminology: Wanted & Unwanted catch For stocks starting EU landing obligation: ICES MSY approach To provide clear linkage to previous advice on catch and landings the advised catches are split into two components, termed wanted catch and unwanted catch. o “Wanted catch” is used to describe fish that would be landed in the absence of the EU landing obligation o “Unwanted catch” refers to the component that was previously discarded. This split, based on the past performance of the fishery, is expected to evolve and the relative magnitude of the components will change, e.g. after some years of LO data, we may have: landings wanted, landings unwanted, discards

Advice format New structure of advice: For each ecoregion: o Stock advice (new format implemented last year: shorter and more directly focussed on the catch advice) o Fisheries advice / overviews (being developed) o Ecosystem advice / overviews (being developed)

All advice available online at: http://www.ices.dk Click on Follow Advisory process  Latest advice In addition to advice items, “Introduction to ICES Advice” document describes principles and advice basis For advice release dates, follow link: Follow Advisory process  Advice requests and advice release dates Email contact (e.g. to enquire about workshops, registration to workshops...): advice@ices.dk

Widely distributed stocks

Blue whiting in Subareas 1-9, 12, 14 Advice for 2017, MSY approach: Catch ≤ 1 342 330 t * SSB increasing since 2011, above MSY B trigger * F above F MSY * Recent recruitment above average Inter-Benchmark in 2016: o Some changes to model settings o Now includes preliminary catch data from assessment year (2016) o Assessment results consistent with last year’s o Reference points re-evaluated, Fishing pressure Stock size 2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 2017 resulting in changes to: MSY Maximum F MSY Above Above trigger sustainable yield F lim (0.88), F pa (0.53), F MSY (0.32) B trigger Harvested Full reproductive Precautionary F pa , B pa , B lim approach F lim sustainably capacity - NEAFC request to evaluate HCR Management plan F MGT - - Not applicable SSB MGT - - - Not applicable

Blue whiting in Subareas 1-9, 12, 14 Catch 2015: 1.396 million t  Discard ratio is < 0.5 %  Landings: 98% pelagic trawl, 2% bottom trawl From WGWIDE report: Main fisheries target spawning and post-spawning fish. ~ 90% of catch taken in first two quarters of the year The bulk of the catch is caught with large pelagic trawlers, some with capacity to process or freeze on board. The remainder is caught by RSW vessels.

Blue whiting in Subareas 1-9, 12, 14 Assumptions 2016: Catch = 1.147 million t (based on declared quotas and expected uptake)  SSB(2017)= 6.80 million t > MSY B trigger (2.25 million t) F % SSB change % Catch Rationale Catch (2017) Basis SSB (2018) 2017 2018 vs 2017 change * MSY approach 1342330 F MSY = 0.32 0.32 6700746 −2 17 0 F = 0 0 7984004 17 −100 793663 F = 0.18 0.18 7225455 6 −31 875482 F = 0.20 0.20 7147053 5 −24 956118 F = 0.22 0.22 7069836 4 −17 1074904 F = 0.25 0.25 6956183 2 −6 Other options 1152681 (~1147 kt) Catch 2017 = Catch 2016 0.27 6881829 1 0 1582620 F (2016) 0.39 6471736 −5 38 2070268 F pa 0.53 6008626 -12 80 3077862 F lim 0.88 5059556 −26 168 6159997 SSB 2018 = B pa 2.88 2257026 −67 437 7039918 SSB 2018 = B lim 4.16 1507999 −78 514 * Catch(2017) relative to estimated catch in 2016 (1.147 million t) Big increase in catch advice for 2017 compared to last year’s advice for 2016, mainly due to:  Recruitment (age 1) in 2014 and 2015 now estimated to be much larger than assumed last year  Upwards revision in F MSY (from 0.30 to 0.32)

Blue whiting: NEAFC request to evaluate LTMS Harvest Control Rule : Btrigger = Bpa (2.25 million t); Blim = 1.5 million t; F MSY = 0.32 If SSB(Jan 1 TAC yr) ≥ Btrigger  20% interannual TAC limit 10% interannual quota flexibility (suspended if SSB forecast to be < Btrigger at end of TAC yr) HCR evaluated via stochastic long-term simulation, including variability (and SSB(Jan 1 TAC yr) autocorrelation) in recruitment and uncertainty in assessment and advice Advice:  HCR is precautionary  HCR precautionary both with and without the 20% TAC change limits above B pa  20% TAC change limits can lead to the TAC being lowered significantly if the stock is estimated to be below B pa , while limiting how quickly the TAC can increase once the stock is estimated to have recovered above B pa  Including a 10% interannual quota flexibility had an insignificant effect on the performance of the HCR. Lower target F (F applied above Btrigger) would lead to less interannual variability in TAC (higher SSB and more robust to assessment uncertainty)

Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Subareas 1, 2, 5, & Divisions 4a, 14a) Advice for 2017, EU, Faroes, Iceland, Norway MP: Catch ≤ 646 075 t * SSB declining, now close to MSY B trigger * F below F MSY * Last large recruitment (age 2) was 2006 Benchmark in 2016: o New assessment model that takes better account of error structure in observations Declining trend in SSB less pronounced and estimates of SSB in recent years higher than in last year’s assessment. Estimates from exploratory runs with other models were within confidence intervals of Fishing pressure Stock size 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 current assessment MSY Maximum F MSY Appropriate At trigger sustainable yield B trigger Harvested Full reproductive Precautionary F pa In autumn 2016: Re-evaluation of reference B pa , B lim approach sustainably capacity Management plan F MGT Appropriate SSB MGT At trigger points and LTMP

Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Subareas 1, 2, 5, & Divisions 4a, 14a) Catch 2015: 329 kt  Discarding negligible  Landings: ~51% purse seine, ~49% pelagic trawl From WGWIDE report: 2015 fishery had similar pattern to recent years Q1: Fishery began in January on Norwegian shelf (overwintering, pre-spawning, spawning and post-spawning fish) Q2: fishery insignificant Q3: Faroese and Icelandic waters and north to Jan Mayen and Svalbard Q4: Central part of Norwegian Sea and overwintering area in fjords and oceanic areas north of Tromsø 58% of catches taken in Q4