How Will Climate Change Affect Brewing? Steve Bertman Professor of the Environment and Sustainability Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo
Brewing is inherently resource intensive. Many breweries know that conserving resources and minimizing consumption can make good business sense.
Climate change will affect ALL aspects of brewing resource management. • Supply chain • Brewhouse • Tap room/restaurant • Distribution
Climate change is the symptom, trapped heat is the cause. Global temperature increased ~1.8°F since 1900 Temperature Change (relative to 1951-1980 average) https://climate.nasa.gov
The last time Earth’s temperature was lower than the 20 th century average was in 1976. Global Land and Ocean January-December Temperature Anomalies 1.00°C 1.80°F 0.80°C 1.44°F 0.60°C 1.08°F 0.40°C 0.72°F 0.20°C 0.36°F 0.00°C 0.00°F -0.20°C -0.36°F -0.40°C -0.72°F -0.60°C -1.08°F 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2019 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201913
What is climate? Weather is daily description of environmental Temperate continental conditions. Climate is a 30-year Humid continental average of weather data for a specific region. Temperature and Humid subtropical precipitation are the most important components of climate.
Climate movement can be quantified. • Eastward in dust bowl years • Northward in recent years; 5 miles per year since 1980 2010 • Likely movement will be faster 1980 in the future 1940 1925 http://www.cbs.umn.edu/climatetracker/ Courtesy of Kevin Smith, U. Minnesota
Climate in brewing-important areas is predicted to shift. Present Future Humid subtropical climate shifts northward into Great Lakes Continental Mediterranean climate in PCNW shifts to warm Mediterranean Beck, et al,. Sci Data 2018 , 5 (1), 215–12.
Current warming is faster than any time in the last 800,000 years. Virtually all modern global warming is due to humans increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. • Fossil fuel combustion ~80% • Deforestation ~20%
CO 2 is the most important greenhouse gas, responsible for 64% of global warming. • 15% increase in one generation My daughter graduates HS I graduate HS https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/full.html
Half of all human-caused CO 2 has been emitted in the last 20 years! 3 35x10 7000 CO 2 Emissions (millions of metric tons) World Population (millions of people) 30 st Century CO 2 21 6000 25 5000 20 st Century CO 2 Pre-21 4000 15 3000 Population 10 2000 5 1000 0 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Global Carbon Project - https://www.globalcarbonproject.org
Crops pull CO 2 out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis and emit other heat-trapping gases, such as nitrous oxide (N 2 O). CO 2 N 2 O Poore & Nemecek, Science, 360 , 987, (2018)
Not all gases trap the same amount of heat. 20 year GHG Typical sources GWP Factor Global Warming Energy combustion, Potential (GWP) CO 2 1 chemical/biochemical reactions Animal agriculture, CH 4 86 decomposition, fracking Fertilizers, car emissions, N 2 O 268 manufacturing Aluminum smelting; PFC 7,390 – 12,200 semiconductors HFC 124 – 14,800 Refrigerants, industrial gases IPCC AR5, WG1 Chap. 8
Think of CO 2 as “global warming currency” ($$) 1 kg CO 2 + 1 kg N 2 O = 1 eq + 268 eq = 269 kg CO 2 equivalents (CO 2 e)
Although N 2 O is present in lower levels than CO 2 , it still contributes to warming. Emissions (GtCO 2 e/yr) IPCC 5 th Assessment Report
Agriculture is the major contributor of N 2 O.
The Northwest is most important for brewing. Barley growth is shifting north 75% of American barley grown in four states Pacific NW grows > 95% of hops in the US.
Some impacts will influence brewing by affecting yields and quality of supply chain (hops & barley). • Changes in temperature more extreme heat warmer, drier summers • Changes in precipitation reduced snowpack more drought more floods • Shifts in growing season • Elevated CO 2 • Increased pests and pathogens
Temperature has risen in almost all parts of the US since the middle of the 20 th century. Temperature difference [AVE(1986–2016) - AVE(1901–1960)] https://science2017.globalchange.gov/
Frequency and duration of high temperatures and drought are on the rise. Extreme temperatures in the contiguous US projected to increase even more than averages https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ Fig. 6.5
Recent advances in computing power have enabled more regional predictions. • Washington predicted to have increased heat wave frequency • Greater in the Yakima valley than other parts of the state Salathé et al., Climatic Change (2010) 102:51–75
Growing season length has already increased. https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/10/ (Fig 10.3)
Little change in precipitation in PCNW during Fall, Winter, Spring, but significantly less in Summer. • More rain, less snow • Smaller snowpack • Drier summers - drought • Estimated crop losses of 10’s of billions $$ https://science2017.globalchange.gov/; https://www.drought.gov/
More precipitation is coming in extreme events. • Changes differ by region • Flooding • Erosion • Crop selection https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/heavy-precipitation
This is predicted to become more common. 4th National Climate Assessment - https://nca2018.globalchange.gov; https://science2017.globalchange.gov/
Protein content in barley is predicted to decrease 13-18% under elevated CO 2 . Barley (20) Rice (14) Wheat (120) Soybean (56) Potato (18) − 20 − 15 − 10 − 5 0 5 Percent change in protein concentration under elevated [CO 2 ] Taub et al., Global Change Biology (2008) 14, 565–575
Climate modeling predicts decreases in barley yield by the end of the century. 80° N d 60° N +10% 40° N 0 Global yield change –3% 20° N –10% –20% 0° –30% 20° S –40% 40° S RCP2.6 180° 150° W 120° W 90° W 60° W 30° W 0° 30° E 60° E 120° E 150° E 90° E Mean yield change –50% –10% 0 +10% +50% +90% –90% Xie et al., Nature Plants, 4, 964-973 (2018)
We are not used to dealing with change occurring as fast as is happening. By accepting the challenges and thinking ahead, the brewing industry can adjust.
Barley is susceptible to the combination of heat and drought Seed yield decreased by 95% when subjected to heat and drought during the heading stage Sugar and protein content are highly variable Not all strains responded identically Physiologia Plantarum 165: 131–133 & 277-289. (2019)
Hops cone yield decreases significantly under drought conditions. Renee Eriksen, unpublished results
Alpha and beta acid levels in hops drop significantly after drought. % reduction of acid levels Some varieties are more susceptible than others Renee Eriksen, USDA, unpublished results
Hops varieties show different levels of heat tolerance. Southern Brewer Cascade Willamette Eriksen et al., HortScience 55 , 403–409 (2020)
What should be done? • Be prepared to be experimental, to be innovative, to be able to work with different feedstocks, perhaps new tastes. • Corporate breweries are working with growers to adjust farming methods and develop strains that can better tolerate future conditions. AB Inbev: “Climate change is the most pressing issue confronting our planet with far-reaching consequences on our supply chain, operations and communities.” - 2018 annual report • Collectively, and through the efforts of the BA, smaller brewers are also working to chart a course for the future to ensure supply, quality, and variety.
Takeaway lessons and recommendations • Climate will become warmer and less predictable. • Hard to say exactly how historical brewing practices will be challenged, but they will be. • Variability of traits appears to offer opportunities for selective breeding of varieties with properties that can withstand the threats of climate change. • Work already started! Need to continue and ramp up . . . soon! • Collaboration will be key for the craft industry. • Make friends with Canadians!
Extensive observations and predictions are available. IPCC unprecedented international scientific collaboration Scope: global US National Climate Assessment NOAA lead agency Scope: national
Questions? Acknowledgements Renee Eriksen Kevin Smith Dave Karowe Chris Swersey Walker Modic
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