Ho How w Fue uel l Cel ells ls Coul uld d Impact pact Vehi hicl cles, es, Bui uildings ings & Ut & Utiliti ties es May 23, 2019
The Wilton lton E. Scott ott Insti titute tute for r Energ rgy y Innovation ovation at Carneg egie ie Mello llon n Univ iversit ersity y addresses the world’s most important energy -related challenges by enabling collaborative research, strategic partnerships, public policy outreach, entrepreneurship, and education. As one of CMU’s only university -wide institutes, we seek to optimize energy resources, reduce the environmental impacts of energy production and use, and develop breakthrough technologies and solutions that will have meaningful global impact.
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Expert Assessments of Fuel Cell Cost, Durability, and Viability Supported by: Shawn wn Litst tster , Professor Inês L. Azevedo do, Professor Mich chael ael M. Whiston on , Postdoctoral Researcher Mechanical Engineering Engineering and Public Policy Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Carnegie Mellon University Carnegie Mellon University Kate e S. Whit itef efoo oot , Assistant Professor Jay y F. Whitac acre re , Professor Cons nsta tantin ntine Samar maras , Associate Professor Mechanical Engineering Engineering and Public Policy Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering and Public Policy Materials Science and Engineering Carnegie Mellon University Carnegie Mellon University Carnegie Mellon University
Outline Fuel l cells ls and DOE targe gets ts Expert ert Elicita itatio tion Interview Solid id Oxid ide e Fuel l Cell l As Asse sess ssments ments Fue uel l Cell l Vehi hicle cle As Assess sessments ments 2
Outline Fuel l cells ls and DOE targe gets ts Expert ert Elicita itatio tion Interview Solid id Oxid ide e Fuel l Cell l As Asse sess ssments ments Fue uel l Cell l Vehi hicle cle As Assess sessments ments 3
What is a fuel cell? “Stack” Fuel cells generate electricity Electricity Fuel Vehicle or building Air ▪ Efficient icient, , quiet: No combustion or moving parts (uses an electrochemical reaction) ▪ Scalable lable: Produce energy for small and large applications 4
Research focus: PEMFCs and SOFCs ▪ Proton oton excha change nge membra brane ne fuel l cells ls (PEMFCs) Low-temperature (<100 ° C), fast start-up, compact ▪ Energy rgy security curity and envir vironmen onment t (hydrogen) ▪ Marke rket t for FCEVs: EVs: Toyota, Honda, Hyundai (3 – 5 minute refueling, 350+ mile range) (Honda, 2019) ▪ Solid id oxide de fuel cells ls (SOFCs) OFCs): : Temperatures > 600 ° C, power and heat, fuel-flexible ▪ Contin tinuous, uous, clean, an, distrib tributed uted power (Bloom Energy) ▪ “Bridge” from fossil ssil to low-carbon carbon fue uels ls; new jobs 5
PEMFC challenges: Cost and durability “ Cost st and dur urabi ability lity are the major challenges to fuel cell commercialization.” (DOE, MYRD&D Plan, 2017) ▪ Cost st = System cost/power output ($/kW) Compressor ▪ Status tus (2017) 7) = $53/kW (James et al., 2017) Humidifier ▪ Target rget = $30/kW (compete with ICEVs) (DOE, 2017) Precoooler Excludes H 2 storage, power electronics, electric drive, battery ▪ Durabi ability lity= Time until 10% power reduction Stack testing ▪ Status tus (2015) 5)= 2,500 hrs (DOE, 2017) ▪ Targe rget t = 8,000 hrs (150,000 miles) (DOE, 2017) 6
SOFC challenges: Cost and degradation rate “…efficient, low-cos cost electricity with intrinsic carbon capture capabilities….” (Vora, SOFC Project Review Meeting, 2018) ▪ Cost st = system cost/power output ($/kW) HXs, CHP ▪ Status tus (2013) 3) = $12,000/kW (Iyengar et al., 2013) Air blowers ▪ Target rget = $900/kW (compete with internal Electronics combustion engines and microturbines) (Vora, 2018) ▪ Degra gradat dation ion rate te = Reduction in stack voltage ▪ Status tus (2017) 7) = 1 – 1.5%/1.000 hrs (Vora, 2018) Voltage ▪ Targe rget t = 0.2%/1,000 hrs (Vora, 2018) 7
Outline Fuel l cells ls and DOE targe gets ts Expert ert Elicita itatio tion Interview Solid id Oxid ide e Fuel l Cell l As Asse sess ssments ments Fue uel l Cell l Vehi hicle cle As Assess sessments ments 8
Research questions Questions for experts Cost and Funding and Barriers performance policies ▪ What are the current and anticipated future ure cost sts and durabili ability ty of fuel cell technologies? ▪ What are the major or barr rriers iers to improving cost and performance? ▪ How much RD&D &D funding ng and what policies cies are needed? 9
Expert elicitation ▪ Formal and systematic procedure for gathering experts’ assessments Upper bound Mitigate biases ses Best guess 95% CI and heuristics ristics Lower bound ▪ Previou evious s studies dies used expert elicitation to assess: Solar Wind Carbon capture (Curtright et al., 2008) (Wiser et al., 2016) (Baker et al., 2009) Biofuels Gas turbines Nuclear (Fiorese et al., 2013) (Bistline et al, 2014) (Abdulla et al.,, 2013) 10
Project timeline 2018 2018 Elici citat tation ion workshops rkshops 2016 2016 Group discussion Project oject launch unch 16 PEMFC experts Literature review 21 SOFC experts Protocol development 2017 2017 2019 2019 Individual ividual inter erviews iews Diss ssemina eminatio tion 64 interviews (in-person, phone) CMU Energy Week PEMFC: 18 yrs experience Policy Briefing SOFC: 19 yrs experience 11
Outline Fuel l cells ls and DOE targe gets ts Expert ert Elicita itatio tion Interview Solid id Oxid ide e Fuel l Cell l As Asse sess ssments ments Fue uel l Cell l Vehi hicle cle As Assess sessments ments 12
Cost and durability targets met by 2035 – 2050 (Whiston et al., 2019a) (Whiston et al., 2019a) ▪ Cost st: 51% of experts said target met by 2050 (median = $30/kW) ▪ Durabi ability: lity: 48% said target met by 2050 (median = 7,500 hrs) 13
Pt loading, instability, and sintering are barriers (Whiston et al., 2019a) (Whiston et al., 2019a) ▪ Reducing cing cost st: Platinum loading, bipolar plate manufacturing, coating cost ▪ Improv proving ing durabili ability: ty: Pre-leaching, annealing, particle size 14
Governmental actions to advance FCEV viability Manufacturing R&D Hydrogen storage R&D Regulatory policies Hydrogen delivery R&D (e.g., ZEV mandates, low- carbon fuel standards) Hydrogen production R&D PEMFC R&D Incentive-based policies ▪ Hyd ydrogen ogen stora orage: ge: Compressed gas viable in 2035; 44% experts anticipated material storage by 2050 ▪ Refuel ueling ing stat ations ons: : 500 stations by 2030 and 10,000 by 2050 15
Outline Fuel l cells ls and DOE targe gets ts Expert ert Elicita itatio tion Interview Solid id Oxid ide e Fuel l Cell l As Asse sess ssments ments Fue uel l Cell l Vehi hicle cle As Assess sessments ments 16
Cost and degradation rate targets met by 2035 – 2050 (Whiston et al., 2019b) (Whiston et al., 2019b; Ghezel-Ayagh, 2011) ▪ Cost st: 25% of experts said target met by 2035; 52% said target met by 2050 (median = $800/kW) ▪ Degra gradat dation: ion: 36% said target met by 2035; 58% said target met by 2050 (median = 0.2%/1,000 hrs) 17
Stack cost and chromium poisoning considerable (Whiston et al., 2019b) (Whiston et al., 2019b) ▪ Reducing cing stack ack cost st: Operating temperature, production volume ▪ Chr hromium mium poiso isonin ning: g: Chromium getters, interconnect coatings 18
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