High-performance computation in hazard and risk research Friedemann Wenzel, Bruno Merz, Patrick Heneka, Thomas Hofherr, Joachim Miksat Karlsruhe Institute of Technology GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) Mission Risk Mapping Computational Challenges Winterstorm modelling Earthquake ground motion modelling International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
CEDIM History The Center of Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM, www.cedim.de) is a joint Center of Excellence of University of Karlsruhe (one of eight German Elite-Universities) and two large research institutions of Helmholtz Gesellschaft, the GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) Potsdam and the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (FZK). It has been established in 2002 by University of Karlsruhe and GFZ; FZK joined in 2007. Currently 30 scientists of the three institutions work under CEDIMs umbrella. International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
CEDIM Mission Successful risk reduction requires risk assessment and analysis, risk communication and risk management. • CEDIM creates scientific knowledge, technologies and intelligent tools in these fields by developing synergies between the expertise of its supporting institutions. • CEDIM co-operates closely with national risk and crisis managing agencies but also contributes to key international challenges such as the impact of disasters on megacities and under climate change conditions. • As Center of Excellence of a university CEDIM communicates its experience into the academic sector with the aim of mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in education. International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Partners and key expertise Engineering: Structural, Electrical, Mechanical, Communication Water Ressource Management Economic engineering Logistics Engineering Geological Hazards Geological Hazards Early Warning Systems Satellite Technology Flood Risk Meteorology and Climate Research Decision Support Sustainability Analysis Emergency Medicin International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Institutes • Institute for Meteorology und Climate Research (IMK) • Institute for Hydromechanics (IFH) • Institute for Water and River Basin Management (IWG) • Geophysical Institute (GPI) • Institute of Concrete Structures and Construction Material Technology (IFMB) • Lehrstuhl für Versicherungswirtschaft (LVW) • Institut für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Verkehrsnetzwerke (IWW) • Institute for Industrial Production (IIP) • Institute for Communications Engineering (INT) • Geological Institute (AGK) • Remote Sensing (Sektion 1.4) • Institute for Technology and Management in Construction (TMB) • Earthquake Risk and Early Warning (Sektion 2.1) • Geodetic Institute (GIK) • Earth's Magnetic Field (Sektion 2.3) • Seismology (Sektion 2.4) • Deformation und Rheology (Sektion 3.2) • Engineering Seismology (Sektion 5.3) • Engineering Hydrology (Sektion 5.4) • Institute for Meteorology und Climate Research (IMK-TRO) • Atmospheric Trace Constituents and Remote Sensing (IMK-ASF) • Atmospheric Environmental Research Division (IMK-IFU) • Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies - Accident Consequence Group (IKET-UNF) • Institute for Technology Assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) • Medical Department (MED) International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
CEDIM – Risk Map Germany scientific groups: – asset estimation – earthquake synopsis – flood earthquake – winter storm flood – man-made-hazards storm – synopsis man-made – GIS / data management hazards GIS / data management asset estimation International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability and Risk Source: Merz, B. / Thieken, A. (2004): Flood Risk Analysis: Concepts and Challenges, Österreichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft 56/3-4 International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Regionalization of Values Regionalization of population and assets based on CORINE landuse data International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
CEDIM-Riskmaps Storm Floods Earthquakes T = ca. 500 a T = 475 a T = 2 a … T = 500 a T = 50 a T = 200 a (IKSR-Scenario) Damage to residential buildings Reference: 2000 International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Risk Comparison Probable maximum loss (PML) Damage frequency curve Annual probability of exceedance (at a given time period) 0.01 0.01 0.001 0.001 100-year flood 1000-year EQ loss loss (euro) loss (euro) Average annual loss (AAL) Risk can be compared through these Risk can be compared through these three functions/curves three functions/curves 0.01 Risk can also be compared in a spatial Risk can also be compared in a spatial manner through maps, e.g., mapping manner through maps, e.g., mapping 0.001 the maximum losses at 100 year event the maximum losses at 100 year event for each hazard in each community for each hazard in each community loss International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Comparison of risks for Saxony � Hazard with highest damage potential for residential buildings � Comparison of damage per capita � Returnperiods EQ475, ST200, HW200/300 International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Storm Risk Method Risk Map • Storm Hazard: exceedance probability of Risk calculation maximum wind speed (grid size: 1km x 1km) Vulnerability of • Vulnerability: technical and natural structures storm damage function in respect of building structure, exposition, wind speed etc. Storm hazard • Storm Damage Risk: statistical expected loss per Orography zip code for specific levels of Wind climate exceedance probability Definition of Risk: Risk = Storm Hazard x Vulnerability x Value The assests are taken from the work of the CEDIM Asset Estimation Group. International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Storm Risk Storm damage risk model Method: 1) selection of the strongest storm event per year 2) numerical simulation of the wind field pattern 3) development of a storm damage function 4) adaption to an extreme value distribution function 5) risk map International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan ECMWF Storm Maps
Storm Maps – Hazard Curves International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Storm Hazard Model architecture KAMM: K arlsruhe A tmospheric M esoscale M odel Developed at the Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research 'synoptic scale' observation prediction equation of motion balance equations energy equation of the reactive species 'KAMM' 'DRAIS' soil- deposition model vegetation model chemical model terrain height 'RADM2 (modified)' landuse data aerosol model 'MADEsoot' biogeníc emissions photolysis rates anthropogenic emissions 'STAR' wind, temperature, humidity, turbulence, radiation, concentrations, deposition, aerosols International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Storm Hazard Physics equations of motion: first law of thermo- dynamics: conservation of mass: ideal gas law: input data: orography, land use data, large- scale synoptic weather conditions, initial values for the wind and temperature field output data: 3-dim. fields of wind speed, temperature, humidity, pressure, shear stress etc. International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Storm Hazard Implementation The Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe is operating HPC vector systems since 1986 starting with IBM 3090VF-600 and Fujitsu VP50. Last year the two running vector systems VPP5000-8 and SX-5/8 are substituted by a SX-8R vector system (8 vektorprocessors archiving 36 GFlop/s peak and offer 256 GB shared memory). International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Storm Hazard Example: Gale Lore, January, 28 1994 wind field simulation by KAMM (1km x 1km) characteristics: • the North is more affected than the South • modification of the wind field pattern due to the Karlsruhe complexe terrain • differences in surface roughness are visible Stuttgart Freudenstadt Lahr 3-dim. grid with terrain following coordinates: 320 x 320 x 50 grid points x 50.000 time steps → Calculating the complex differential equations: ~5*10 9 times International Symposium on Grid Computing 2008 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
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