USE SAME WEBEX INFO FOR PDP AOP CUSTOMER MEETING (10am PDT) & BCP MASTER SCHEDULE CUSTOMER MEETING (11:30am PDT) Law, Diane (CONTR) From: To: Gonzalez, Xavier Subject: FW: [EXTERNAL] WebEx meeting invitation: PDP annual customer meeting Date: Thursday, May 3, 2018 6:55:49 AM WebEx_Meeting.ics Attachments: webex instructions.docx Hi Diane, Please see the attachment for claiming the host role. This will allow you to take the host role after you have joined as a participant and remove the need to contact WITCC to have the host role passed on to you. If you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to reach out to us. Have a great day. Host key: 232337 Thanks, Monica Hobson | Call Center Vision Technologies Contractor to Western Area Power Administration | Headquarters (O) 720.962.7385 Hobson@wapa.gov Diane M. Law | Administrative Support/Team Lead MIRACORP on contract to Western Area Power Administration | Desert Southwest Region (O) 602.605.2664| (F) 602.605.2410 Join us on Twitter From: WAPA DOE1 [mailto:messenger@webex.com] Sent: Thursday, May 3, 2018 6:29 AM To: Law, Diane (CONTR) <Law@WAPA.GOV> Subject: [EXTERNAL] WebEx meeting invitation: PDP annual customer meeting Hello, WAPA DOE1 invites you to join this WebEx meeting. PDP annual customer meeting Thursday, May 31, 2018
Parker-Davis Project ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN PRESENTATION Updates For Hydrology & Annual Operating Plans May 31, 2018 Subject, Office or event
Agenda • Introduction • Hydrology Update • FY 2017 AOP Estimates Presented 5/31/17 & Final FY 2017 Results • Status of FY 2018 Annual Operating Plan • DSW Federal Project Integration • Preliminary FY 2019 Annual Operating Plan • FY 2019 Purchase Power Estimates 2 Subject, Office or event Parker‐Davis Project Annual Operating Plan Presentation 5/31/18
24.32 MAF 26.12 MAF 1.81 MAF .62 MAF 3
Lower Basin Colorado River Management Objectives • Provide flood control and river regulation • Meet water demands • Generate hydropower • Enhance and maintain ecosystem habitat • Recover and protect endangered species • Provide recreation 4
Water Year Snowpack and Precipitation 1 as of May 29, 2018 126% of Median Colorado River Basin above Lake Powell Water Year 2018 74% of Median Precipitation (year-to-date) 71% of average Current Snowpack 39% of median 5 1 Percent of normal precipitation is based on an arithmetic mean, or average; percent of normal snowpack is based on the median value for a given date.
Hydrology Update Actual WY 2017 Results & WY 2018 Current Forecast WY 2017 WY 2018 Lake Powell (maf) % (maf) % Unreg Inflow (Norm=12.1) 11.9 98% 5.5 45% Apr-Jul Unreg Inflow (Norm=7.2) 8.2 114% 3.0 42% Storage (Max=24.3) 14.7 60% 11.6 48% Releases to Lake Mead (Norm=8.23) 9.0 109% 9.0 109% (ft.) (ft.) Max Lake Elev. 3635 (Jun) 3627 (Oct) Min Lake Elev. 3594 (Feb) 3598 (Sep) Year-End Lake Elev. 3628 3598 Subject, Office or event 6 Parker‐Davis Project Annual Operating Plan Presentation 5/31/18
Lake Powell & Lake Mead Operational Diagrams and Current Conditions 12.84 3,611 5/28/18 5/28/18 1,081 10.07 5/28/18 5/28/18 7
Lake Powell Capacity 3,700 ft 24.3 maf Equalization Tier Equalization Elevation (WY 2018) 3,654 ft 17.7 maf 89 ft Upper Elevation Balancing Tier 12.84 maf 3,611 ft (53% of Live Capacity) 3,575 ft 9.5 maf Mid-Elevation Release Tier 121 ft 5.9 maf 3,525 ft Lower Elevation Balancing Tier 4.0 maf 3,490 ft Minimum Power Pool 3,370 ft 0.0 maf Dead Pool 8 Not to scale As of May 28, 2018
1,111.00 1111 1,110.00 1110 WY 2014, WY 2015, WY 2016, WY 2017, WY 2018 1,109.00 1109 1,108.00 1108 1,107.00 1107 LAKE MEAD DAILY ELEVATIONS 1,106.00 1106 1,105.00 1105 1,104.00 1104 1,103.00 1103 1,102.00 1102 1,101.00 1101 1,100.00 1100 1,099.00 1099 1,098.00 1098 1,097.00 1097 1,096.00 1096 1,095.00 1095 1,094.00 1094 1,093.00 1093 1,092.00 1092 1,091.00 1091 1,090.00 1090 1,089.00 1089 1,088.00 1088 1,087.00 1087 1,086.00 1086 1,085.00 1085 1,084.00 1084 1,083.00 1083 1,082.00 1082 1,081.00 1081 1,080.00 1080 1,079.00 1079 1,078.00 1078 1,077.00 1077 1,076.00 1076 1,075.00 1075 1,074.00 1074 1,073.00 1073 1,072.00 1072 1,071.00 1071 1,070.00 1070 Subject, Office or event 9 Parker‐Davis Project Annual Operating Plan Presentation 5/31/18
1000 900 LAKE POWELL TOTAL RELEASES 800 700 600 WY2017 POWELL RELEASES WY2018 POWELL RELEASES 500 WY2017 MEAD SIDE INFLOW FY2018 MEAD SIDE INFLOW 400 ‐‐‐‐‐ FORECAST 300 LAKE MEAD TOTAL SIDE INFLOW 200 100 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Subject, Office or event 10 Parker‐Davis Project Annual Operating Plan Presentation 5/31/18
Hydrology Update Actual WY 2017 Results & WY 2018 Current Forecast WY 2017 WY 2018 Lake Mead (maf) % (maf) % Side Inflow (Norm=1.3) 1.0 77% .7 54% Storage (Max=26.1) 10.2 39% 10.1 39% Downstream Releases 9.3 -- 8.8 -- (ft.) (ft.) Max Lake Elev. 1089 (Feb) 1088 (Feb) Min Lake Elev. 1076 (Oct) 1077 (Jul) Year-End Lake Elev. 1082 1078 Subject, Office or event 11 Parker‐Davis Project Annual Operating Plan Presentation 5/31/18
Lake Mead Capacity 1,219.6 ft 26.1 maf Surplus Conditions 1,145 ft 16.2 maf 139 ft Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions 1,081 ft 10.07 maf 1,075 ft 9.6 maf (39% of Live Capacity) 131 ft Shortage Conditions 950 ft 2.0 maf Minimum Power Pool 895 ft 0.0 maf Dead Pool 12 Not to scale As of May 28, 2018
WY 2019 Lower Basin Hydrology Forecast (Based on May 2018 24-month Study) Powell % Mead % Upper Elev Norm/Intent Operating Crit. Balancing Created Tier Surplus 1/1/19 Elev (ft) 3590.4 1078.6 Unreg/Side Inflow (maf) 10.6 88 .79 61 Apr-Jul Unreg Inflow (maf) 7.2 100 -- -- Releases (maf) 9.0 109 9.6 -- EOY Storage (maf) 12.0 49 9.3 36 Max Elev (ft) 3608 (jul) 1083 (feb) Min Elev (ft) 3580 (mar) 1070 (jul) EOY Elev (ft) 3603 1072 13 Subject, Office or event Parker‐Davis Project Annual Operating Plan Presentation 5/31/18
Colorado River Basin Storage (as of May 28, 2018) Storage Percent Elevation Reservoir Full (Feet) (MAF) Lake Powell 53% 12.84 3,611 Lake Mead 39% 10.07 1,081 Total System 51% 30.58 NA Storage* *Total system storage was 53% or 31.56 maf this time last year 14
Percent of Traces with Event or System Condition Results from April 2018 MTOM/ CRSS 1,2,3,4,5 (values in percent) Event or System Condition 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Equalization Tier 2 15 17 20 24 Equalization – annual release > 8.23 maf 2 15 17 20 22 Equalization – annual release = 8.23 maf 0 0 0 0 2 Upper Upper Elevation Balancing Tier 96 51 53 52 45 Basin Upper Elevation Balancing – annual release > 8.23 maf 76 44 44 43 35 – Upper Elevation Balancing – annual release = 8.23 maf 19 6 8 9 9 Lake Upper Elevation Balancing – annual release < 8.23 maf 0 1 1 0 1 Powell Mid-Elevation Release Tier 3 34 21 16 18 Mid-Elevation Release – annual release = 8.23 maf 0 0 0 1 2 Mid-Elevation Release – annual release = 7.48 maf 3 34 21 15 16 Lower Elevation Balancing Tier 0 <1 8 11 13 Shortage Condition – any amount (Mead ≤ 1,075 ft) N 52 64 68 65 Shortage – 1 st level (Mead ≤ 1,075 and ≥ 1,050) 0 51 43 38 29 Lower Shortage – 2 nd level (Mead < 1,050 and ≥ 1,025) 0 1 21 23 24 Basin Shortage – 3 rd level (Mead < 1,025) – 0 0 <1 6 12 Lake Surplus Condition – any amount (Mead ≥ 1,145 ft) 0 0 3 6 10 Mead Surplus – Flood Control 0 0 0 1 2 Normal or ICS Surplus Condition 100 48 33 26 25 1 Reservoir initial conditions based on results from 35 simulations of December 31, 2018 conditions using the Mid-term Probabilistic Operations Model. MTOM uses the April 3, 2018 unregulated inflow forecast from the CBRFC. 2 Each of the 35 initial conditions were coupled with 110 hydrologic inflow sequences based on resampling of the observed natural flow record from 1906-2015 for a total of 3,850 traces analyzed. 3 Percentages shown may not sum to 100% due to rounding to the nearest percent. 4 Percentages shown may not be representative of the full range of future 15 possibilities that could occur with different modeling assumptions. 5 The chance of a Lower Basin Shortage in calendar year 2019 is negligible.
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