GS: Needs, challenges and further research GSIA, Network Facilitator, Leverhulme Trust Research Group Dr. Meng Lu 09-08-2016 De Montfort University, Leicester
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Grey system overview • Grey system was initiated by J. Deng in 1982 in CN; provides an approach for abstract modelling of systems for which the information is limited, incomplete and characterised by random uncertainty, initially applied in systems and control. o Deng pioneered a unique theory for modeling, and decision when the data is sparse. o His contribution is greatly appreciated. This does not imply that we accept everything developed by him or his school. o Grey theory does not have solid mathematical foundations yet like probability theory, fuzzy theory (based on Credibility Measure) and others. Theoretical studies have been investigating in the past decades. • The first major breakthrough of Grey System (after the initiation of Deng) was made recently by Yang [2014], who determined grey numbers and grey sets, and also distinguished these with fuzzy sets and rough sets. 4
Pending issues need to be (further) studied and convincingly clarified • What are the relationships between grey numbers/sets and GM, and GRA respectively? • What are the relationships between GM and GRA based on the definitions of grey numbers and grey sets? • What is the main objective or scope of grey system, e.g. limited data vs. big data? why? how to determine the scope? • What are the unique usefulness and contribution of grey system in application that are different from other methods? 5
Uncertainty modeling topics in traffic and transport • Uncertainties in world trade and impacts on logistics market (forecasting) • Dynamic traffic management and control (nodes, links, network) • Shock waves and traffic jams mitigation (especially on highway) • Estimated Arrival Time • (Dynamic) route guidance (all modes) 6
Conclusion • Grey system has a multidisciplinary character to cope with the uncertainty of a system by using elements of relational analysis, operational research, system control, system modelling, system forecasting • Most distinguished methods: GRA and GM • Theoretical foundations are missing o Grey system or grey systems? In the latter case, what are the systems? o Relationships between grey number and grey system(s), GRA and GM? • Usefulness/value of the grey methods is unclear o What are the unique contribution of grey method(s), e.g. other methods (such as traditional systems and control, fuzzy set and fuzzy logic, other normalisation based evaluation methods) cannot do better? o In practice, why and how grey methods can better handle uncertainties? How these have been validated? 7
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