Growth in a Changing Economy Jan. 9, 2017 3 Key Economic - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Growth in a Changing Economy Jan. 9, 2017

3 Key Economic Trends/Myths • Shift from making stuff to coming up with ideas • What is a strong economy? • The rise of the “winner take all” economy

U.S. Employment Share by Sector 1960 2015 Production, 16.1% Services, 34.4% Production, 39.5% Trade, 19.4% Services, 64.5% Trade, 26.1% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

U.S. GDP growth rates have slowed . 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 2010's -2% -3% Annual Growth Rate 10 Year Moving Avg.

Employment and GDP are no longer attached. GDP and Employment Growth Trends 135 130 125 Growth Index (2000=100 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Employment GDP

The Rise of the “Winner Take All” Economy – Traditional Economy

The Rise of the “Winner Take All” Economy – Digital Economy

So, where does Kansas City fit in?

Kansas City Economy Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Kansas City MSA Employment 2016 Employment 2016 Health Care and Social Assistance 147,895 Retail Trade 113,930 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 90,043 Accommodation and Food Services 89,401 Manufacturing 76,340 Educational Services 76,123 Administrative and Support 71,897 Finance and Insurance 58,918 Construction 54,640 Transportation and Warehousing 54,239 Other Services (except Public Administration) 48,346 Wholesale Trade 47,696 Public Administration 47,654 Management of Companies and Enterprises 31,985 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 21,748 Information 20,176 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 17,549 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 7,191 Utilities 7,077 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 840 - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Kansas City Specializations KC MSA Location Quotients Management of Companies and Enterprises 1.66 Finance and Insurance 1.39 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1.29 Transportation and Warehousing 1.22 Utilities 1.21 Wholesale Trade 1.11 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1.04 Other Services (except Public Administration) 1.01 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 0.98 Administrative and Support 0.98 Retail Trade 0.97 Health Care and Social Assistance 0.97 Information 0.96 Accommodation and Food Services 0.93 Construction 0.93 Public Administration 0.91 Educational Services 0.86 Manufacturing 0.86 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 0.45 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0.18 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

KC Economy Specializations KC Employment by Industry 2001-2015 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Health Care and Information Finance and Transportation Prof., Scientific, Trade Social Insurance and and Technical Assistance Warehousing Svcs. Source: Jobs EQ

Some strengths lift, others pull down Employment Change in Last 5 Years Management of Companies and Enterprises 15,246 Computer Systems Design and Related Services 8,385 Motor Vehicle Manufacturing 3,819 Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting… 3,466 Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services 3,029 Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related… 2,823 Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component… 2,802 Freight Transportation Arrangement 1,665 General Freight Trucking 1,151 Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers 977 Rail Transportation 86 Insurance Carriers (678) Printing and Related Support Activities (857) Depository Credit Intermediation (1,552) Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing (3,195) Wired Telecommunications Carriers (7,434) (10,000) (5,000) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

What KC Does for the world

10,000,000 Population Growth 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 0 Chicago Dallas Houston Washington Philadelphia Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Phoenix Riverside Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa Denver St. Louis Baltimore 2015 Population Charlotte Portland Orlando San Antonio Pittsburgh Sacramento Cincinnati Las Vegas Kansas City Cleveland Columbus Austin Indianapolis San Jose Nashville Virginia Beach Providence Milwaukee Jacksonville Oklahoma City Memphis Louisville Raleigh Richmond New Orleans Hartford Salt Lake City Birmingham Buffalo Rochester Grand Rapids Tucson

(100,000) Population Growth 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 - Houston Dallas New York Los Angeles Washington Miami Atlanta Phoenix San Francisco Seattle Austin Denver Orlando Riverside Numeric Population Growth 2010-15 San Antonio Boston Charlotte San Diego Tampa Minneapolis Las Vegas Portland Nashville Raleigh San Jose Sacramento Columbus Oklahoma City Jacksonville Philadelphia Indianapolis Baltimore Chicago Salt Lake City 73,768 Kansas City New Orleans Richmond Grand Rapids Virginia Beach Louisville Cincinnati Tucson St. Louis Milwaukee Memphis Birmingham Detroit Providence Rochester Buffalo Hartford Pittsburgh Cleveland

Components of Population Change Components of Population Change 2014-15 Intl. Migration, 4,280 Domestic Migration, 779 Natural Growth, 11,071

Net Domestic Migration 2014-15 < -9,000 -9,000 to -4,454 -4,453 to 2,429 2,430 to 24,901 > 24,901

10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 0.0% Educational Attainment Kansas City ranks towards the top in overall edcuational attainment relative to its peers. Source: ACS 2015 1-year Las Vegas Memphis San Antonio Oklahoma City Louisville Cleveland Tampa Jacksonville Providence Virginia Beach Nashville Indianapolis Cincinnati St. Louis Orlando Sacramento Milwaukee Charlotte Richmond Columbus Pittsburgh 43.5% Kansas City San Diego Baltimore Portland Austin Denver Seattle Minneapolis-St. Paul Raleigh San Jose

Educational Attainment 2015 Percent of Adult Population with at least and Associate’s Degree <38.2% 38.2% to 40.5% 40.6% to 42.5% 42.6% to 46.5% >46.5%

Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Kansas City Net In-Flow Population 25+ with at least a Bachelor's degree 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Net Inflow of the Population with at Least a Bachelor's Degree -2015 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 3,129 2,000 - (2,000) (4,000) (6,000)

$100,000 $120,000 Household Income $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $- San Jose Washington Kansas City sits towards the middle of the pack in terms of median household income San Francisco Boston Seattle Baltimore Hartford Minneapolis Denver New York San Diego Austin Salt Lake City Raleigh Philadelphia Portland Chicago Sacramento Los Angeles Dallas Houston Richmond $60,502 Kansas City Atlanta Virginia Beach Providence Columbus Nashville Cincinnati St. Louis Milwaukee Riverside Phoenix Grand Rapids San Antonio Charlotte Indianapolis Pittsburgh Rochester Detroit Jacksonville Louisville Oklahoma City Buffalo Las Vegas Birmingham Orlando Cleveland Miami Tampa Memphis New Orleans Tucson

Household Income Kansas City MSA Median Household Income $63,000 8.0% $62,000 6.0% $61,000 4.0% $60,000 $59,000 2.0% $58,000 0.0% $57,000 $56,000 -2.0% $55,000 -4.0% $54,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $53,000 -6.0% Real Median Household Income (Left Axis) Annual Rate of Change (Right Axis)

10.0% 12.0% Household Income -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Nashville 2014 and 2015. Kansas City saw one of the greatest increases in median household incomebetween Birmingham Atlanta San Francisco 6.0% Kansas City Portland Memphis Orlando Milwaukee San Jose Seattle Austin Providence Raleigh Hartford Denver Rochester Salt Lake City Philadelphia Sacramento San Antonio Tampa Boston Jacksonville Miami Phoenix Indianapolis Louisville/Jefferson County Dallas Pittsburgh Buffalo Los Angeles New Orleans Columbus Riverside Minneapolis Tucson Chicago New York Charlotte Cleveland Houston Washington Detroit Virginia Beach Grand Rapids Cincinnati St. Louis San Diego Baltimore Las Vegas Richmond Oklahoma City

Lee’s Summit’s Role

Lee’s Summit is a high income community. Median Household Income 2010-15 $90,000 $81,144 $80,242 $80,000 $75,020 $70,000 $60,502 $60,000 $50,259 $48,212 $50,000 $42,229 $41,255 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- Lee's Summit Jackson County Kansas City Olathe Overland Park Independence Kansas City MO Kansas City, MSA 2010 2015

Median home values have topped $200,00 Median Home Value 2015 $300,000 $249,000 $250,000 $207,700 $200,300 $200,000 $164,700 $138,400 $150,000 $130,800 $100,200 $100,000 $87,600 $50,000 $- Lee's Summit Jackson County Kansas City Olathe Overland Park Independence Kansas City Kansas City, MSA