The Science of Global Hydrology: Lessons from the U.S. Northeast Corridor Charles J. Vörösmarty & the UNH Water Systems Analysis Group Fall Water Institute Seminar Series University of Florida 6 November 2007
Goals for This Discussion • Describe chief forces shaping the contemporary and future water system -- the globe, the U.S., the region • Highlight contributions from Earth system science & technology to strategic water assessment and forecasting • Announce a NE corridor community-based hydro-synthesis effort
For the Global Climate Challenge A Scientific Data Set That Has Mobilized the Politics of a Planet
Sanitation and access to Global “Engineered” clean water water Water Resource Challenges Water for development Food security Pollution Maintaining aquatic Weather extremes ecosystem services
Contributions from Earth System Science • In situ networks • Operational satellite-based monitoring of the hydrosphere • Simulation models and data analysis tools ( NWP- 4DDA, GCMs, RCMs, ESMs ) • Geo-referenced social science data …are creating new ways to view the “global water crisis” …to inform policy and improve management
Humans Interacting w/ the Global Water Cycle-- The Picture Today Social Science Data The Geophysical Picture High resolution mapping shows ca. 20% 84% 16% of population population w/ no access to renewable water supply Wettest half Driest half •Importance of upstream source areas: note Amazon/S. Asian contrast •Dry half to experience increasing Vörösmarty et al. (2005), Millennium Assessment, Conditions & TrendsWorking Group pressure on water resource base •
• Climate Change only part of our water resource worries • Population growth and economic development another critical issue
More People, More Development, Means More Water Engineering • Widespread Hydrological Alterations Arising from – Irrigation – Dams and Reservoirs – Interbasin Transfer/Flow Diversion • Benefits & Concerns • Often These are Costly Supply-side Solutions
Irrigation & Urban Water Use in Excess of Sustainable Supplies Documentary evidence and simulations now converging U.S. High Plains Aquifer Great Man-Made GRACE Δ storage for Mississippi Groundwater Declines under Beijing River Project, Libya -- 4 Decades -- Western US Basin Transfers
Physical Tele- Forced by Connections: Inter- food security Basin Transfers & Flow issues Diversions • Costly ‘hard path’ • Engrain patterns of overuse • Creates a biodiversity teleconnection on both nature & economies 35,000 km of hydrovias…. direct links to globalization & food trade
PANDEMIC ENGINEERING OF SURFACE WATERS Distortion of Natural Hydrographs • 700% increase in water held by river systems • Several years of residence time change Stored Runoff in many basins < 2% annual flow 2 • Tripling of river runoff 10 25 travel times globally 50 (from 20 up to 60 100 >100 days) • Substantial impact on aquatic biodiversity • Interception of 30% of continental TSS flux Framing Committee/GWSP 2004, Eos AGU Transactions
Deltas Under Threat Major Sources of Chronic RSLR: Eustatic Sea Level Rise Only Part of the Story Global Sample of 40 Basins Sources of Change: -- 5 Eustatic Sea Level Rise -- 8 Groundwater/petroleum extraction -- 27 Upstream sediment trapping & diversion Ericson et al., 2006, Global and Planetary Change
Water Supply-- Doubling of Global Nitrogen Pollution Obvious consequences on: water resources, aquatic biodiversity, human health Terrestrial Loading % Change in River Fluxes Green et al. 2004; Biogeochemisty
( GWSP Theme 3 ) RESILIENCY STUDIES Status of aquatic biodiversity ? Links to hydrology and environmental flows? Pollution? Poor governance?
Provision of Clean Water and Sanitation: A Millennium Development Imperative & Destabilizing Force 1.1 billion people lack clean drinking water 2.6 billion people lack basic sanitation • 1.7M deaths from water-related diarrheal disease • Annual losses of $85 billion globally from health costs and decreased labor productivity WHO/UNICEF 2004
NSF-CUAHSI Pilot Synthesis Center Activities (2007-2010) “Humans Transforming the Water Cycle: Community-Based Activities in Hydrologic Synthesis” Central Goal: To quantify widespread alteration of hydrologic systems over local-to-regional domains focusing on the North East corridor of the United States over a 500-yr period (1600 to 2100) ……..“The 500-year Challenge” CUAHSI
Strategic Transformations of Environmental Systems in the NE Historical trends of land use and land cover for the Chesapeake region (modified from Brush 1994) Time Frame Period Land-use/landcover characterization 10,000 - 5,000 B.C Pre-human Boreal type forest succeeded by hemlock into enclosed canopy mixed conifers-deciduous forest 5,000 B.C.- A.D. 1600 Pre-European Oak-hickory, closed canopy forest 1600-1800 Early settlement 20-40% land cleared for tobacco, grain, small farms, iron furnaces, colonial towns and construction 1800-1900 Agrarian to industrial 60-80% land cleared for large farms, transition introduction of deep plough and guano-based fertilizers, metropolitan expansion 1900-25 Industrial urbanization Chemical-based fertilizers, "inter-urban" rail feeding industrial suburbs 1925-50 Automotive urbanization Increased fertilizers, large farm operations, wetlands drainage, suburban expansion 1950-75 Highway urbanization Modern highway connections, drive-in commerce, mega-suburbs encroaching upon farmlands, wetlands, forest 1975-90 Modern urban sprawl Decrease in cultivated land and forest, urban expansion forms, megalopolis The future Post-industrial Regional ecosystem management, climate change, US energy policy carbon mitigation/sequestration, pollution management
Ipswich River (MA) Transboundary Water Engineering • Net 20-25% streamflow exported • Complex time series • Induced seasonal water shortages Claessens et al. 2005
History of US Dam and Reservoir Construction How and why did hydraulic engineering evolve in the …emblematic of water development globally NE corridor? And what is its likely trajectory into the future? Source : National Inventory of Dams
Atmospheric Sources Join Point and Non-Point Sources to Generate Regional Aquatic Chemical Loads and Potential Limits on Available Water Resources Total Nitrogen Yield New England Sparrow Model (USGS)
Addressing the 500-year Challenge for methodological continuity 1600 Contemporary 2100 Hindcasts Nowcasts Forecasts and Scenarios Regional Earth System Modeling Unified “vertically” Large Drainage Basin Models Virtual Watersheds Indicators of Hydro-System State Unified “horizontally” for temporal continuity
From: Weiskel et al. 2007, WRR INTERACTIONS HUMAN-WATER TYPOLOGIES OF
hsB(Troch et al.) Some Candidate Virtual Watershed Models tRIBS (Bras et al.) Potential Testbed Basins: Neuse, Baltimore, Boston Metro, Connecticut River, NYC
The Baltimore-Washington Regional Collaboratory Land-Use History Research Program Timothy W. Foresman, U. Maryland-Baltimore County, foresman@umbc.edu Urban density in Baltimore- Washington region 1792-1992 1792 1850 1900 1925 1953 1972 1982 1992 Population density by county 1800, 1890, 1990
Human Development and Water Infrastructure Modeling Correlated Percolation Model (CPM) Courtesy: C. Zevenbergen, UNESCO-IHE Delft
Operational Ecosystem Surveillance e.g. Terrestrial C Flux GPP (g/m2-d) 16 Sept. 2007 Precip. (mm/d) Solar Irr. (W/m2)
The Day Has Arrived Where We Need to Think of Regional Carbon Inventories and Regional Ecosystem Management
Conclusions • Humans increasingly defining the mechanics of the hydrologic cycle • Recent S&T developments enable a new interdisciplinary science of water, but require social science perspectives • Regional-scale gives “ground-truth” to global patterns ……global patterns give context to regional change • N.E. emblematic of patterns globally: rich set of synthesis topics & opportunities for environmental surveillance
• Join the regional CUAHSI and NOAA hydro-system partnership ( www.wsag.unh.edu ) • Summer Synthesis Institutes: – 6-8 Weeks in residence Boston Metro Area – Team-oriented work driven by graduate students & several mentors – Topic for 2007 Water in the Northeast: The 16th and 17th Centuries
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