Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation The Hawthorn Club - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global Trends in Clean Energy and Transportation The Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series The Interweb, 23 June 2020 Michael Liebreich Founder and CEO Liebreich Associates

​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Global clean energy investment and capacity installations 2004 – 2019 197 GW 600 200 179 GW “Spend the same, “Spend more, get more” 147GW get more” 500 150 $360 billion 400 $413bn $402bn $383bn $378bn 91GW $369bn 100 $358bn $350bn 300 $324bn $320bn $302bn $258bn 50 $240bn 36GW 200 $228bn $181bn 100 $121bn $95bn 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Includes large hydro. Source: BNEF, IRENA Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 1 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2016 Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Chile Country: Morocco Country: Denmark Bidder: Solarpack Bidder: Enel Green Power Bidder: Vattenfall Signed: August 2016 Signed: 2016 Signed: 2016 Construction: 2019 Construction: 2018 Construction: 2022 US$ 5.3 c/kWh US$ 2.91 c/kWh US$ 3.0 c/kWh Note: images are illustrative only Source: Various manufacturers and project developers Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 2 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2018 Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Mexico Country: Mexico Country: Denmark Bidder: Enel Bidder: Neoen Bidder: Vattenfall Signed: Nov 2017 Signed: Nov 2017 Signed: 2016 Construction: 2018 Construction: 2019 Construction: 2022 US$ 5.3 c/kWh US$ 1.97 c/kWh US$ 1.77 c/kWh Note: images are illustrative only Source: Various manufacturers and project developers Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 3 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2019 Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: UAE Country: Mexico Country: Germany Bidder: ACWA Bidder: Neoen Bidder: Dong/ENBW Signed: October 2019 Signed: Nov 2017 Signed: 2016 Construction: 2021 Construction: 2019 Construction: 2024 US$ 4.9 c/kWh US$ 1.69 c/kWh US$ 1.77 c/kWh Note: images are illustrative only Source: Various manufacturers and project developers Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 4 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2020 Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Qatar Country: Mexico Country: Germany Bidder: Total/Marubeni Bidder: Neoen Bidder: Dong/ENBW Signed: Jan 2020 Signed: Nov 2017 Signed: 2016 Construction: 2021-2022 Construction: 2019 Construction: 2024 US$ 4.9 c/kWh US$ 1.57 c/kWh US$ 1.77 c/kWh Note: images are illustrative only Source: Various manufacturers and project developers Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 5 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

RE proportion of power generation 2007 – 2017 UK China Germany Canada 66% 61% 33% 36% 27% 15% 14% 5% Japan 17% 9% Spain US Italy 34% 19% Australia 52% 17% 8% 16% Brazil 88% 81% India 20% 8% 19% 18% Wind & solar Other renewables Note: Calculated as GWh renewable production / GWh consumption Source: Liebreich Associates; BNEF; BP Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 6 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Global share of power generation by source 1971 - 2019 Source: Liebreich Associates, IEA, BP, World Bank Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 7 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Wind and solar are not taking over the world Today, solar and wind make up just 0.8% of global energy. In a quarter century, solar and wind will produce less than 4% of global energy Bjørn Lomborg visiting professor at the Copenhagen Business School President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center 4 February 2018 Image: Lomborg.com Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 8 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Trump on US coal July 2017 And you know all the people that were saying the mining jobs? Well we picked up 45,000 mining jobs in a very short period of time. Donald Trump US President Image: Mark Lyons/Getty Images Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 9 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Fact-checking – US coal mining monthly employment Jan 1995 – May 2020 President Clinton President GW Bush President Obama President Trump Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 10 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

UK daily coal share 2012 – 2020 67 days, 22 hours and 55 minutes without coal >50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Gridwatch.uk, Liebreich Associates Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 11 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Quarterly EV sales by region Q1 2012 – Q4 2019 APAC EMEA AMER CAGR 66% CAGR 57% CAGR 40% Source: BNEF Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 12 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

BNEF electric vehicle outlook to 2040 Annual global passenger vehicle sales Global passenger vehicle fleet % Share of global fleet Million sales Billion vehicles on the road 100 2.0 100% 80 80% 1.5 60 60% 1.0 40 40% 0.5 20 20% 0 0.0 0% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ICE PHEV BEV Source: BNEF EVO 2019 Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 13 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

US transportation trends 1970 – 2019 Vehicle miles travelled Vehicle miles travelled per person ? billion miles billion miles billion miles ? 4,000 4,000 4,000 ? 3,000 3,000 3,000 ? 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 0 1970 1970 1970 1980 1980 1980 1990 1990 1990 2000 2000 2000 2010 2010 2010 Note: Miles reported as moving 12 month average; data up to June 2019 Source: Liebreich Associates; FRED Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 14 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Innovation in heat is cool Images: Naked Energy; Climeon; Danfoss; SaltX; Sonnen; Radbot; Optiwatt; PassivSystems; Sunamp; Solidpower Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 15 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Paris The world must achieve greenhouse gas neutrality some time in the second half of the century Paris Agreement December 2015 Image: UNFCCC Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 16 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Beyond the Three-Third World Manufacturing Shipping/air/freight Chemicals Agriculture Energy access Heat Images: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica; Wikipedia Commons Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 17 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Global share of power generation by source 1971 - 2019 First they Then they Then they fight Then Covid-19 you… ignore you… laugh at you… comes along Source: Liebreich Associates, IEA, BP, World Bank Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 18 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Chinese energy companies during the pandemic China state refiners run rates Major power generators coal consumption BloombergNEF, China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 19 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Electricity demand in Europe and in Asia Europe Asia Note: average daily electricity load from each week in 2020 with the corresponding week from 2019 for peak hours (08:00-18:00). Percentages are adjusted for differences in temperature.. Source: Bruegel Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 20 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Flights in Europe 2019-2020 75% decrease y/y Source: Eurocontrol Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 21 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

US oil demand Source: EIA Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 22 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Road congestion in selected cities Note: TomTom Congestion Index data Source: BloombergNEF, TomTom Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 23 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis

Congestion levels in selected Chinese cities Source: TomTom Index Note: Weekly averages. Figures are percentages of an equivalent week in 2019 Hawthorn Club Virtual Global Thought Leadership Series: 24 23 June 2020 @mliebreich Covid-19 - The Low-Carbon Crisis