Global Shippers’ Forum Annual General Meeting (Colombo, Sri Lanka – 29 July 2016) Round Table Discussion Boubacar Djibo, Director Air Transport Bureau ICAO 1
World International Cargo Shipment Follow up the Meeting Between the GSF SG and the ICAO SG in Berlin, March, 2016 The two Secretary General addressed the safe transportation of lithium battery and the concerns of air cargo shippers in their discussion on the occasion of the 10 th World Cargo Symposium.
World International Cargo Shipment Volume of world international Value of world international cargo shipment cargo shipment Aviation Surface modes Aviation One third of the value of world trade is shipped by air Surface modes Source : Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), 2016 3
Value chain of air transport STATES (Regulatory framework) ANSPs Ground Airports MROs Airlines Handling Aircraft manufacturers Freight Fuel Travel agents & Lessors Seeks services from Forwarders suppliers GDS
Growth of air transport +1.7% 198 billion FTK growth rate vs. 2014 6.6 trillion RPK +7.1% growth rate vs. 2014 Scheduled commercial traffic Source : ICAO Annual Report of the Council 5 Total (international and domestic) services
Freight traffic distribution Domestic International AFR LAC EUR 0% 3% 4% EUR NA 31% 2005 MID LAC 18% 1% 3% AFR APAC Domestic 17% 2% NA 21% International 83% 71% MID APAC 8% 38% AFR EUR LAC 0% EUR 5% 3% 24% NA 2015 14% LAC MID 3% 0% AFR 2% Domestic 14% International 86% APAC NA MID APAC 33% 59% 16% 41% Source : ICAO Annual Report of the Council Scheduled commercial traffic measured in Freight Tonnes-Kilometres 6
Long- term Air Traffic Forecasts: “GATO” Scheduled Freight Traffic Source : Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO 7
Top belly-cargo international flows : 2030 (FTK share) Source : ICAO Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 – Cir 333 8
Air Freight Slowdown Continues Air freight growth vs. global export orders Air Freight and World Trade Challenges of Air Cargo Industry • World trade has been weak and the global economy has stagnated. • China’s rebalancing impacts commodity exporters and the US economy is recovering slowly. • A chronic over-capacity has been observed industrywide and the load factor for cargo carriers continued a steady drop over the last several years.
Intermodal competition Competition from Other Modes of Transportation • Air cargo and liner shipping carriers transport similar commodities but the price gap between sea freight and air freight causes shippers to switch from air to ocean • Railway transportation is gaining more market share. Rail freight makes a 17-day rail journey from China to Europe, at a lower fare than air freight
E-Commerce stimulates air cargo ICAO is cooperating with UPU and UNCTAD to share big data and research reports on e-commerce Aggregated Tonnage of Postal Shipments (in millions) total letter-post parcel- EMS post 2013 458 163 168 126 2014 567 214 189 164 2015 656 218 220 218 2015/14 15.8% 2.2% 16.6% 32.8% 2014/13 23.8% 31.0% 12.1% 30.3% Source: UPU Data on Postal Shipments • 2/3 of international postal transportation is by air • Global B2C e-commerce sales hit $1.5 trillion in 2015 • Double-digit annual growth in the e-commerce market • High frequencies of E-commerce transactions may improve the load factors of air cargo carriers
The Future of Air Cargo: Big Online Retailers? Drones ? • Amazon announced its drone delivery program “Amazon Prime Air” since Amazon: December 2013. Amazon has developed drones weighs less than 55 pounds and E-commerce giant Amazon has signed up to lease 40 freighters, 20 can carry up to a 5-pound payload. from Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings and another 20 from ATSG. Amazon • UAV manufacturer Matternet , announced its partnership with Swiss WorldCargo also registered a company in the U.S. as a non-vessel operating and Swiss Post on a project to test its drone aircraft as an automated cargo common carrier (NVOCC), which turned Amazon into a freight delivery system for small express packages. forwarder. • China’s S.F. Express has revealed it already has a fleet of aircraft flying 500 parcels a day to remote areas, and it is now looking to double the capacity. Alibaba: • Chinese online retailer JD.com has also tested drone deliveries to the remote Alibaba’s logistics arm, Cainiao Logistics, helped Alibaba rake in a countryside. staggering US$14.3 billion in a 24- hour period on 2015 “Singles Day”!
ICAO’s Role in Global Air Cargo Transport • Economic Development • Security and Facilitation • Dangerous Goods • Environment • International Cooperation
Economic Development CHICAGO CONVENTION Preamble THEREFORE, the undersigned governments having agreed on certain principles and arrangements in order that international civil aviation may be developed in a safe and orderly manner and that international air transport services may be established on the basis of equality of opportunity and operated soundly and economically; • Air Transport is an essential component of our global society, a powerful driver of economic, social and culture development and the safest and most efficient mode of mass transportation ever created. ICAO Council President Dr. Olumuyiwa Benard Aliu, 2014
Economic Development: Promoting the Value of Air Cargo Transport Promoting the Value of Air Cargo to the Global Economy ICAO is promoting the value of air cargo to its Member States and the industry through its website, publications and events, and therefore aptly reflects the core vision of the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs as the means to fulfilling its objectives. The pages addressing the impact of air ICAO held the First ICAO Air Cargo ICAO webpage on Air Cargo Economic Policy cargo services on economic development Development Forum, in Zhengzhou, 2-5, http://www.icao.int/Security/aircargo/Pages/Liberalizing-Market- in the ICAO-WCO Joint Brochure. September, 2014 Access-for-Air-Cargo-Services.aspx
Economic Development: Data Analysis Market Monitor: Air Transport Monitor Air Transport Monitor Based on the data provided by our Member States, ICAO produces an Air Transport Monthly and Yearly Monitor that provides a snapshot and analysis of economic and aviation indicators.
Economic Development: Data Analysis Data Sharing with Partners – OECD/UPU/UNCTAD UUII Portal Site is a data-sharing platform between ICAO, UPU,UNCTAD and ITF- OECD, where the four organizations share the research reports, as well as the statistics on air cargo transport, maritime shipping and postal services. This platform also provides a unique forum to undertake the research on e- commerce.
Economic Development: Cargo Liberalization Air Cargo Liberalization • ATConf/5 Air cargo and, in particular, all cargo operations should be considered for accelerated liberalization. • ATConf/6 There was broad support for ICAO to play a leadership role in facilitating further liberalization, and some support for ICAO to develop a multilateral agreement specifically focused on air cargo. • Guidance Material ICAO has developed guidance to facilitate air cargo liberalization, such as the model clauses for inclusion in air services agreements (in the form of an annex on air cargo). The model clauses, which were endorsed by ATConf/5, have been included in the ICAO Template Air Services Agreement (TASA) for optional use by States. • The Working Group (WG) of the Air Transport Regulation Panel (ATRP) The WG is tasked to develop an international agreement for the liberalization of market access and air carrier ownership and control. The expected outcome will cover an article on the liberalization of air cargo transport.
Economic Development: Cargo Liberalization Traffic liberalization (Pax and cargo) Regional framework Multilaterals Regional approaches (e.g. EU, YD) Market FREEDOMS OF THE AIR Access ICAN ICAO Air Services YD = Yamoussoukro Decision Bilaterals Negotiation Event EU = European Union 19
Economic Development: Cargo Liberalization Air Cargo Liberalization in Africa • Yamoussoukro Decision ICAO encourages all the Parties to implement the Yamoussoukro Decision in order to realize the full benefits of the Decision. • Meeting on Air Cargo Development in Africa ICAO held the First Meeting on Air Cargo Development in Africa in Lomé, Togo in 2014. The Meeting adopted the “Declaration on the Development of Air Cargo in Africa: Key Milestones” and the “ The Action Plan describing the follow-up work approved by the meeting ” • The State Air Transport Action Plan System (SATAPS) SATAPS is a tool to support States in the follow-up and implementation of strategic decisions formalized through: a) the ICAO Declaration on the Development of Air Cargo in Africa (7 August 2014) and b) the ICAO Declaration on the Sustainable Development of Air Transport in Africa (27 March 2015).
Economic Development: Cargo Liberalization Declaration on Air Cargo Development in Africa: Key Milestones 05/08/2016 Air Cargo Development in Africa 21
Economic Development: Cargo Liberalization Action Plan describing the follow-up work approved by the meeting 05/08/2016 Air Cargo Development in Africa 22
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