GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2015/2016 Development Goals in an Era of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2015/2016 Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change

Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016 PART 1: Monitoring Global Development Progress PART 2: Development in an Era of Demographic Change

Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016 PART 1: Monitoring Global Development Progress • Development progress • Key challenges • Policy priorities

Development Progress: Income Poverty For the first time, the extreme poverty rate may have reached single digits. Yet, the number of poor remains unacceptably high. 1959 2,000 40 1752 37.1 35 Number of poor, millions Poverty rate, percent 1,500 30 29.1 25 983 1,000 20 897 702 15 14.1 12.7 500 10 9.6 5 0 0 1990 1999 2011 2012 2015* Note: Based on the $1.90 poverty line and 2011 PPP. * Forecast 3

Development Progress: Non-Income Dimensions While income poverty fell rapidly during the MDG-era, a large unfinished agenda remains for the SDGs with respect to non-income goals.

Challenge #1: Depth of Remaining Poverty With extreme poverty concentrating in Sub-Saharan Africa, more focus is needed on the poorest among the poor 60 Share of the world's poor (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1999 2011 2012 2015* East Asia and Pacific South Asia Sub-Saharan African Rest of the World Note: Based on the $1.90 poverty line and 2011 PPP. * Forecast

Challenge #2: Unevenness of Shared Prosperity Prosperity needs to be better shared with the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution, especially in high-income countries

Challenge #3: Disparities in Non-Income Dimensions Widespread inequality of opportunity transmits poverty across generations and erodes the pace and sustainability of shared prosperity Share of students demonstrating basic competency in PISA math test, 2012 Tunisia Indonesia Bulgaria Brazil Argentina 10 30 50 70 90 Bottom 40% of the population Top 20% of the population

Policies: Sustain Broad-Based Growth With the outlook less buoyant at the start of the SDG period, policies to sustain broad-based economic growth will be key

Policies: Invest in People, Insure against Risks Sustainable progress requires investing in the human potential of the bottom 40 and protecting the poor and vulnerable against risks

Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016 PART 2: Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change • Patterns of demographic change • Country-level policy implications • Global policy implications

Patterns: Global Demography at a Turning Point The global working-age share has peaked, the global population is growing much more slowly, and it is aging at record speed.

Patterns: Stark Diversity across Countries Underneath global trends lies stark diversity, with countries facing different opportunities to capture demographic dividends.

Patterns: Stark Diversity across Countries (continued) The world can be divided into pre-, early-, late- and post-dividend countries GMR 2015/2016 13

Country-Level Policies: Pre- and Early-Dividend Countries Key priorities are to (1) facilitate demographic transition to slower population growth and (2) accelerate job creation to absorb the rising youth bulge

Country-Level Policies: Late- and Post-Dividend Countries Key priorities are to (1) sustain productivity growth and (2) adapt policies and institutions to rapid population aging.

Global Policies: Centers of Poverty, Engines of Growth Demographic fault lines separate centers of global poverty needing further development and engines of global growth facing rapid aging.

Global Policies: Freer Flows of Capital, Trade and People Along with trade and investment flows, migration offers a global opportunity to arbitrage demographic diversity across countries.

Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016 The report is available on: www.worldbank.org/gmr Thank you.

Disparities across Countries: Population Growth Cumulative change in population, 2015-50

Policy Priorities for Centers of Global Poverty Early-dividend countries Pre-dividend countries further along in demographic lagging in human transition development outcomes Sparking demographic transition Accelerating job creation • • Improve maternal and child Invest in human capital • health Enhance labor market mobility • • Expand education without Reduce barriers to female labor letting girls fall behind force participation • • Empower women Strengthen conditions • conducive to savings & job Improve access to creation comprehensive family planning services

Policy Priorities for Engines of Global Growth Post-dividend countries with Late-dividend countries with shrinking proportions of 15- shrinking proportions of 15- 64 population & aging well 64 population & aging underway accelerating Adapting to aging Sustaining productivity growth • • Reform welfare systems for Continued mobilization of fiscal sustainability while savings for productive ensuring social protection investment • Raise labor force participation • Ensure public policies across rates & productivity of everyone, encourage labor force at all ages participation of both sexes • Pursue policies that encourage • Design cost-effective, fertility rebound, including sustainable welfare systems measures to reconcile childcare & work

Policies Relevant for Everywhere: Reducing Gender Gaps Labor force participation rate 2010, percent 100 Female Male 80 60 40 20 0 Pre-dividend Early-dividend Late-dividend Post-dividend

Country Spotlight: Ethiopia Improving education, accelerating savings, and improving productivity can all help capture demographic dividends Annual growth rate of GDP per capita 2016-30, percent 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Baseline Improved Higher Higher total Combination education savings factor productivity

Country Spotlight: Japan Fertility rebound and migration could help sustain population growth and reduce dependency ratios in the long run Total dependency ratios Population, millions 150 100 130 90 110 80 Baseline Baseline Increased fertility Increased fertility 90 70 Increased migration Increased migration Combination Combination 70 60 2015 2032 2049 2066 2083 2100 2015 2032 2049 2066 2083 2100

Policies to Leverage Migration Reducing burden of brain Promoting legal migration drain in sending countries flows • • Formulate clear policies Develop comprehensive and • Enforce minimum wage laws targeted policies to retain and • Provide adequate information to attract talent • migrants on rights/obligations Encourage return migration • Facilitate contribution to and benefits from social protection/public services • Sanction abusive firms

Policies to Leverage Trade Promote foreign Health services Support comparative provision of exports to aging advantage education countries. • • Ease visa Address restrictions • Streamline customs, requirements on border and transit students/academics a) physical presence of performance • Address qualification foreign suppliers; • Improve logistics and recognition issues b) foreign equity transport services • Reduce limits on ceilings; and • Extend physical foreign ownership c) barriers on cross- infrastructure • Transparent border movement of • Tackle tariff and education regulations health care nontariff barriers on professionals. goods trade

Policies to Leverage Capital Flows Reduce challenges Support investment in Attract capital to from capital flow younger countries younger countries volatility • • Introduce Provide investment • Create favorable macroeconomic guarantees or investment climate; policies to address technical assistance. • Strengthen risks from volatile macroeconomic capital inflows: stability, financial • Supervision sector, and • Regulation governance • Strong institutions • Relax investment barriers at the domestic, regional, and global level