Global- -M Mso so et son Impact sur la Prvision et son Impact sur - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global- -M Méso éso et son Impact sur la Prévision et son Impact sur la Prévision Global Moyenne- -Échéance Échéance au Canada au Canada Moyenne Stéphane Bélair (MRB) Stéphane Laroche ( MRB ) Michel Roch (MRB) Anne-Marie Leduc (CMC) François Lemay (CMC) Jean-Marc Bélanger (CMC) Paul Vaillancourt (MRB) Environnement Canada

Objectif du Projet Objectif du Projet Fournir à CMC CMC- -Opérations Opérations une nouvelle une nouvelle Fournir à version de GEM qui permet d’améliorer version de GEM qui permet d’améliorer la prévision météorologique à moyenne moyenne- - la prévision météorologique à échéance au Canada au Canada échéance Environment Canada

Current Operational Operational Configuration Configuration Current DYNAMICS PHYSICS • Solar and infrared radiation interactive • Hydrostatic primitive equations with water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone • Implicit two time-level semi-Lagrangian and clouds (Garand + Fouquart and scheme; time step = 2700 sec Bonnel) • 3D finite elements • Surface processes with simple force- restore system • periodicity in the horizontal • TKE scheme for PBL vertical diffusion, • No motion across top and bottom diffusion coefficients based on stability surfaces and kinetic energy • Global uniform lat-lon grid with • Simple diagnostic clouds in PBL with computational poles rotated with respect impact on stability (and vertical diffusion) to geographic poles. • Surface layer based on Monin-Obukhov • 0.9° horizontal resolution similarity theory • 400 X 200 grid points in the horizontal • Kuo-type deep convection scheme 28 η levels, top at 10 hPa • • Sundqvist condensation scheme for ∇ 6 horizontal diffusion on momentum • stratiform precipitation variables. • Gravity wave drag (MacFarlane 1987) • Stratospheric sponge • Low-level blocking (Lott and Miller) Environment Canada

Dicton Populaire Dicton Populaire Tu prends le global Tu prends le global T’augmentes la résolution T’augmentes la résolution Tu mets plus de niveaux Tu mets plus de niveaux Tu prends la physique du régional Tu prends la physique du régional … et that’s it !!! … et that’s it !!! Environment Canada

Main Features of Global- -Meso Meso Main Features of Global • Increased horizontal and vertical resolution • 800x600x58L (33 km) compared to 400x200x28L (100 km) • Numerical poles at geographic locations • Representation of clouds and precipitation • Shallow convection with Kuo Transient • Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch • Modified Sundqvist scheme for grid-scale condensation • Bougeault-Lacarrère for the turbulent mixing length • Constant thermodynamic roughness length over water in the Tropics • ISBA land surface scheme with sequential assimilation of soil moisture (based on OI) Environment Canada

Meteorological Performance Performance Meteorological (If it looks good, it must be good…) (If it looks good, it must be good…) OP MESO RADAR 60-h forecasts of instantaneous precipitation rates valid at 1200 UTC 25 Feb. 2001 using the current operational model and the proposed configuration. The black and white image shows the radar reflectivities valid at the same time Environment Canada

MESO OP Environment (Michel Roch) Canada

Vers une Implémentation Méso- -4D 4D Vers une Implémentation Méso Modifications à l’analyse : • Analyses faites sur les 58 niveaux du Global-Méso • Nouvelles statistiques d’erreurs (méthode NMC, 58 niveaux) • Optimisation du code du modèle et du variationnel • Moins d’itérations de la boucle interne (55 au lieu de 70) rendu possible par l’utilisation d’une matrice Hessienne enrichie X b X Δ X 0 Δ X 1 Deux cycles d’assimilation X Été : du 8 juillet au 10 septembre 2004 Hiver : du 8 décembre 2004 au 3 février 2005 Environment Canada

Northern Hemisphere 96-h forecasts RMSE and BIAS 101 WINTER cases Blue : Operational model Red : Global Meso

Southern Hemisphere 96-h forecasts RMSE and BIAS 101 WINTER cases Blue : Operational model Red : Global Meso

Tropics 96-h forecasts RMSE and BIAS 101 WINTER cases Blue : Operational model Red : Global Meso

Northern Hemisphere 96-h forecasts RMSE and BIAS 110 SUMMER cases Blue : Operational model Red : Global Meso

Southern Hemisphere 96-h forecasts RMSE and BIAS 110 SUMMER cases Blue : Operational model Red : Global Meso

Tropics 96-h forecasts RMSE and BIAS 110 SUMMER cases Blue : Operational model Red : Global Meso

Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlations Anomaly Correlations Geopotential Height – 500 hPa Southern Hemisphere Northern Hemisphere 24h 48h 72h 96h 120h 24h 48h 72h 96h 120h 101 Winter (DJF 2005) Cases Environment Canada

Error Spectra Error Spectra MESO OP

Filtered (red) vs non-filtered (blue) Northern Hemisphere 96-h forecasts Filtered Meso (red) vs Filtered OP (blue) RMSE and BIAS 101 WINTER cases

Meso- -4D will be Born During the 4D will be Born During the Meso Year of the Dog Year of the Dog Loyal, faithful, and honest Trouble trusting others Trustworthy, except for occasional little « white lies » Excellent listener Narrow-minded and stubborn Possibly temperamental Happy when physically active Environment Canada

Objective Evaluation of Precipitation Objective Evaluation of Precipitation SHEF US surface stations Precip 48-72h NEW Bias OP NEW ETS OP 55 summer 2004 cases Environment Canada

Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I /I Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM WINTER (Paul Vaillancourt)

Radar Echoes for Hurricane Rita Radar Echoes for Hurricane Rita Environment (Michel Roch) Canada

Hurricane Rita: MESO vs OP Hurricane Rita: MESO vs OP Observed trajectory MESO Other models OP Environment (MR) Canada

Systematic Evaluation of Systematic Evaluation of Hurricanes and Typhoons Hurricanes and Typhoons EXAMPLE: KATRINA Central Pressure Trajectory OP MESO OP MESO OBS OBS Environment (Anne-Marie Leduc) Canada

The Cost of Global- -Meso Meso The Cost of Global Δ t ni nj nk x 600 x 58 * NEW 800 x 45 OP 400 x 200 x 28 x 15 2 x 3 x 2-3 x 3 = 30-60 Estimation: around 380 CPUs will be required to produce 10-day forecasts in about 100 min (wallclock) Size of output files : at least 40 Gb for a 10-day forecast (compared to 2 Gb for the current operational system) Impact on development and future implementations Environment Canada

Pendant ce temps … Ailleurs … Pendant ce temps … Ailleurs … NCEP T382 (35 km) L64 Summer 2005 3 Feb. 2006 T799 (25 km) L91 ECMWF 432 x 325 (60 km) x L38 UK Met Office 2001 640 x 320 (60 km) x L40 Japan Met Agency Environment Canada

Nous et les Autres Nous et les Autres ~ 12 m De combien allons-nous réduire le gap? Environment Canada

Calendar Calendar Late Jan. Final assimilation cycles and 10-day integrations are on the way Mid to End of Proposition to CPOP March Spring Parallel run Early Operational Implementation Summer Environment Canada

Future Developments Future Developments • Stratospheric version of GEM (model + assimilation) (CHARRON, DUGAS) • New radiation code with improved optical properties of clouds (VAILLANCOURT) • Improvement in the representation of grid-scale and subgrid-scale orography, together with improved representation of subgrid-scale roughness and low-level blocking effect of mountains (ZADRA, BELAIR) • First version of the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (MAHFOUF, BELAIR, DEBLONDE) • Off-line modeling of sea-ice (PELLERIN, BEAUDOIN) • Further improvements to clouds and precipitation (BELAIR, MAILHOT, LEDUC) • Second version of CaLDAS (assimilation of L-band data + possibility of CLASS) (MAHFOUF, BELAIR, DEBLONDE) Environment Canada

Backup Charts Backup Charts Environment Canada

Ceux qui ont Contribué Ceux qui ont Contribué (liste non exhaustive) (liste non exhaustive) Maryse Beauchemin Stéphane Laroche Stéphane Bélair Anne-Marie Leduc Jean-Marc Bélanger Vivian Lee Bernard Bilodeau Louis Lefaivre Bruce Brasnett Francois Lemay Gilbert Brunet Jean-François Mahfouf Mark Buehner Jocelyn Mailhot Corinne Burlaud André Méthot Cécilien Charrette Josée Morneau Martin Charron Alain Patoine Yves Chartier Pierre Pellerin Luc Corbeil Paul Pestieau Jean Côté André Plante Michel Desgagné Abdessama Qaddouri Bernard Dugas Lise Rivard Pierre Gauthier Michel Roch Claude Girard Donald Talbot Jacques Hallé Monique Tanguay Carol Hopkins André Tremblay Pierre Koklas Paul Vaillancourt Manon Lajoie Michel Valin Ervig Lapalme Gilles Verner Ayrton Zadra Environment MERCI a TOUS Canada