Global changes in atmospheric concentrations of HFCs and HCFCs: assessing the effects of international policy S.A. Montzka 1 , B.R. Miller 1,2 , L. Hu 1,3 , C. Siso 1,2 , F. Moore 1,2 , B.D. Hall 1 , J.W. Elkins 1 1 NOAA/ESRL/GMD, Boulder, CO, USA 2 CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO USA 3 NAS/NRC, Washington D.C., USA. Acknowledgements: Many other NOAA colleagues... NOAA & cooperative site personnel from: Chinese Meteorological Administration CSIRO, Australia Environment Canada Harvard Univ. National Science Foundation SCRIPPS/Humboldt Univ. US Forest service Univ. of Bristol, U.K. Univ. of Colorado INSTAAR Univ. Wisconsin, Madison Weizmann Institute, Israel M. McFarland, Dupont, USA D. Fahey, NOAA/CSD D. Godwin, US EPA G. Velders, RIVM, Netherlands NOAA’s Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Program and its Climate Program Office.
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer Set phase-out schedules for potent ozone-depleting gases (e.g., CFCs) The transition from HCFCs to HFCs is currently underway… This transition was accelerated by the 2007 Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol: Ozone Depletion Potential 1) Capped HCFC production in CFCs developing countries for the first time (as of 1 Jan 2013) 2) Could lead to large increases in hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) , particularly in developing countries HCFCs (Velders et al ., 2009), and radiative forcing… HFCs 0 How have concentrations and emissions of HCFCs and HFCs Global Warming Potential changed in response?
Halocarbon Surface and Aircraft Sampling Network • 90 Flasks • ALT • 240 • SUM HFC-134a low alt HCFC-22 NOAA GCMS 80 BRW • NOAA GC-MS flask data high alt. NOAA GC-MS MHD 220 (Montzka et al.) • spo Remote site 70 LEF Daily Remote site • • • WLG cgo THD 200 • flask record • HFM flask record spo WIS 60 • Bi-wkly NWR smo HFC-134a (ppt) HCFC-22 (ppt) cgo • 180 • (Aircraft) smo mlo MLO 50 mlo KUM kum kum 160 Remote Atmosphere Sampling: 40 nwr Plus: nwr Eight sites typically brw Oceanic cruises • 140 ~3 sample flask pairs/month on average brw 30 alt TROICA up to 22 year-long records SMO global alt HIPPO (2009-2011) 120 20 CARVE global • 100 CGO 10 80 0 PSA • 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 SPO •
Global Surface Mixing Ratios WMO Despite the 2007 Adjustments: 250 250 Scenario HCFC concentrations are still increasing …as is total chlorine and radiative 200 200 HCFC-22 forcing from these chemicals 150 150 Global surface mixing ratio (ppt) Growth rates have changed as production 100 100 shifted from developed to developing countries (~2004)… 50 50 Inst A Inst B 0 0 But: WMO Increases since 2007 compared to WMO 25 25 Scenario scenario are: 20 20 HCFC-141b * slower for HCFC-22 and -142b, 15 15 * as projected for HCFC-141b 10 10 HCFC-142b 5 5 0 0 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 (WMO Scenarios from Velders and Daniel et al., 2011)
Global EMISSION rates derived from global changes 500 500 500 Since 2007: WMO HCFC-22 Scenario Global emissions have: 400 400 400 - remained constant for HCFC-22 - decreased for HCFC-142b 300 300 300 - increased for HCFC-141b Global EMISSIONS (Gg/yr) 200 Compared to the WMO Scenario: 200 200 2007 Actual emissions were US only - smaller for HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b 100 100 100 - similar for 141b US EPA Hu et al. 0 0 0 US HCFC-22 emissions (EPA and Hu et al .): 80 80 80 HCFC-141b WMO * increased in the past… decreasing now? Scenario 70 70 70 60 60 60 Are decreases in developed countries now 50 50 50 offsetting increases in developing countries? 40 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 HCFC-142b 0 0 0 1990 1990 1990 1995 1995 1995 2000 2000 2000 2005 2005 2005 2010 2010 2010 2015 2015 2015 Hu et al.: following talk
Summed Global HCFC EMISSIONs Since 2007 when the Adjustments to Summed HCFC Emissions the Montreal Protocol were 700 agreed to: Global EMISSIONS (Gg/yr) 600 Global HCFC emissions have remained nearly constant 500 …even though global production 400 limits applied only after Jan 2013 300 Ozone and climate benefits… 200 Potential implications for HFCs: Earlier transition to HFCs? 100 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Global atmospheric changes for HFCs: NOAA data 90 90 Global surface mixing ratio (ppt) 80 80 HFC-134a 70 70 60 60 50 50 NOAA data 40 40 20 HFC-125 30 30 From ongoing 18 Global mean mixing ratio (ppt) HFC-152a flask samples Inst A 16 20 20 HFC-143a Inst B HFC-32 14 10 10 HFC-365mfc 12 0 0 HFC-227ea 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 8 From archived CFC-12 replacement air samples 6 4 2 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Global CO 2 -equivalent emissions of HFCs: 400 400 Velders et al . Sum of HFC-134a (2009) 2 -eq/yr) 350 2 -eq/yr) 350 Velders et al . other HFCs: (2009) 300 300 Global emission (MtCO Global emission (MtCO 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 * Global HFC emissions are increasing, consistent with Velders et al. projection— Includes: HFC-125, HFC-143a , HFC-32 but will this increase accelerate after 2012? HFC-152a, HFC-227ea, & HFC-365mfc …but not HFC-23
Global CO 2 -equivalent emissions of HFCs: 400 400 Velders et al . Sum of HFC-134a (2009) 2 -eq/yr) 350 2 -eq/yr) 350 Velders et al . other HFCs: (2009) 300 300 Global emission (MtCO Global emission (MtCO 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 UNFCCC UNFCCC 50 50 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 * Global HFC emissions are increasing, consistent with Velders et al. projection— but will this increase accelerate after 2012? * 40-50% of global HFC-134a emissions are missing from UNFCCC compilations. Either: Transition from ODSs to HFCs is well underway in developing countries Large inaccuracies exist in UNFCCC reporting from developed countries
Conclusions: For HCFCs: Atmospheric increases have been slower overall since 2007 than projected. HCFC-22 emissions have been constant since 2007 , …decreases in developed country emissions may be offsetting increases expected from developing countries. Summed global HCFC emissions have not increased substantially since the 2007 Adjustments to the Montreal Protocol were agreed to, … and have likely reached their peak . For HFCs: Velders et al . (2009) projections for HFC emissions are very good through 2012. Reduced releases of HCFC have not caused larger than expected HFC emissions, though large increases are projected for the future… And: Discrepancies with emissions reported to the UNFCCC may suggest that the transition from HCFCs to high-GWP HFCs is well underway in developing countries…
HCFC production in the Montreal Protocol: As of 2007: ...phased out in different countries Developed countries (non-A5): with different schedules Decreasing, below max. 60 Reported HCFC production, 2007 50 ODP-ktons (sum, HCFCs) max allowed (non-A5) 40 Prod non-A5 Non-A5 30 Series12 countries Series1 20 10 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year
HCFC production in the Montreal Protocol: As of 2007: ...phased out in different countries Developed countries (non-A5): with different schedules Decreasing, below max. 60 60 60 Developing countries (A5): Reported HCFC production, 2007 HCFC production Increasing rapidly, ...after 2007 Adjustments ? no limit until 2015. 50 50 50 to the Montreal Protocol The 2007 MP Adjustments: ODP-ktons (sum, HCFCs) ODP-ktons (sum, HCFCs) ODP-ktons (sum, HCFCs) max allowed (non-A5) Global total 40 40 40 * non-A5 lower in 2010 * A5: Limited as of Jan 2013 Prod_A5 Global Prod Prod_A5 Prod non-A5 Prod_A5 based on 2009-2010 levels Non-A5 Prod non-A5 Prod non-A5 Series10 30 30 30 Series12 Series10 Series12 countries Series12 Series9 Series1 Production since 2007: Series9 Series1 Globally stable, 20 20 20 10 10 10 A5 countries 0 0 0 1985 1985 1985 1990 1990 1990 1995 1995 1995 2000 2000 2000 2005 2005 2005 2010 2010 2010 2015 2015 2015 2020 2020 2020 Year
HCFC production in the Montreal Protocol: As of 2007: ...phased out in different countries Developed countries (non-A5): with different schedules Decreasing, below max. 60 Developing countries (A5): WMO scenario Increasing rapidly, Global no limit until 2015. 50 The 2007 MP Adjustments: ODP-ktons (sum, HCFCs) Global total 40 * non-A5 lower in 2010 * A5: Limited as of Jan 2013 Global Prod Prod_A5 based on 2009-2010 levels Prod non-A5 Non-A5 30 Series10 countries Series12 Series9 Production since 2007: Series1 Globally stable, though 20 could have increased… How about emissions? 10 A5 countries implications for HFCs? 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Peak ODS production in late 1980s was ~1500 ODP-Kt
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