Emissions Concentrations Impacts Climate (GtC/yr) (ppmv) Sea-level rise ( ℃ ) • Heat waves • Drought • Extremes • etc. •
Emissions Concentrations Impacts Climate (GtC/yr) (ppmv) Sea-level rise ( ℃ ) • Heat waves • Drought • Extremes • etc. • Climate Sensitivity ( ℃ /ppmv) • Cloud feedbacks • Non-linear • Depends on timescale!
Emissions Concentrations Impacts Climate (GtC/yr) (ppmv) Sea-level rise ( ℃ ) • Heat waves • Drought • Extremes • etc. • Carbon Cycle Climate Sensitivity • Ocean uptake ( ℃ /ppmv) • Land uptake • Cloud feedbacks • Feedbacks etc. • Non-linear • Depends on timescale!
Carbon-Climate Response ( ℃ /GtC) Function of cumulative emissions • Basis for carbon budget, Paris, etc. • Emissions Concentrations Impacts Climate (GtC/yr) (ppmv) Sea-level rise ( ℃ ) • Heat waves • Drought • Extremes • etc. • Carbon Cycle Climate Sensitivity • Ocean uptake ( ℃ /ppmv) • Land uptake • Cloud feedbacks • Feedbacks etc. • Non-linear • Depends on timescale!
Solomon 2009, PNAS Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Year
Solomon 2009, PNAS Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Ocean heat content/thermal expansion Year
Solomon 2009, PNAS Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Ocean heat content/thermal expansion Temperature response Year Year
Solomon 2009, PNAS Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Ocean heat content/thermal expansion Temperature response Year Year + = Ocean carbon uptake Ocean heat uptake Constant temp. response!
Solomon 2009, PNAS Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Ocean heat content/thermal expansion Temperature response Year Year + = Ocean carbon uptake Ocean heat uptake Constant temp. response! Ceasing emissions today will fix surface temperatures at today’s values, for hundreds of years.
Solomon 2009, PNAS Atmospheric CO 2 concentration Ocean heat content/thermal expansion Temperature response Year Year + = Ocean carbon uptake Ocean heat uptake Constant temp. response! Ceasing emissions today will fix surface temperatures at today’s values, for hundreds of years. (sea level and deep ocean temps, however, will continue to rise)
Value of CCR ? CCR ( ℃ /1000 GtC) Williams 2017, Journal of Climate CCR for model ensemble under emissions consistent with 1%/yr CO 2 increase Year
Carbon-Climate Response ( ℃ /GtC) Function of cumulative emissions • Basis for carbon budget, Paris, etc. • Timescale-independent • Accounts for carbon cycle • Emissions Concentrations Impacts Climate (GtC/yr) (ppmv) Sea-level rise ( ℃ ) • Heat waves • Drought • Extremes • etc. • Carbon Cycle Climate Sensitivity • Ocean uptake ( ℃ /ppmv) • Land uptake • Cloud feedbacks • Feedbacks etc. • Non-linear • Depends on timescale • Ignores carbon cycle
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