Global Agricultural Weather Outlook Black Sea Grain Conference Kyle Tapley, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist April 11, 2019 – Kyiv, Ukraine Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Radiant Solutions: Who we are • Radiant Solutions is the global leader for weather and remote sensing technology • Trusted by the agricultural commodities industry for more than 40 years • Global coverage • Provider of historical and forecast weather data • Proprietary crop yield and production estimates • Crop identification using satellite imagery • Unique analytical tools • 24/7/365 support from our Weather Desk team of meteorologists Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
COMING SOON: 3000+ New Weather Stations in GWI! • 3,017 new stations to be added to GWI in the coming weeks, increasing total number of stations to nearly 10,000 • New and improved regions Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
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Agenda • Expectations for El Niño/La Niña • Black Sea Growing Season Outlook • EU Growing Season Outlook • U.S. Growing Season Outlook • South America Recap • Tour of Other Global Weather Hotspots Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
El Niño and La Niña Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • Cycle involving changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric pressures across the tropical Pacific • Impacts weather patterns by altering the global atmospheric circulation Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Monitoring and Classifying El Niño El Niño ño • Boxed area is called Niño 3.4 region, which is used to classify ENSO events by NOAA • In El Niño , sea surface temperatures Neut utral ral are more than 0.5 ° C warmer than normal in the Niño 3.4 region • In La Niña , sea surface temperatures La Niña ña are more than 0.5 ° C cooler than normal in the Niño 3.4 region Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
ENSO Through the Years Niño 3.4 Region Temperature Anomalies 3 2,5 2 Monthly Niño 3.4 Region SST Anomaly (° C) Strong El Niño 1,5 Moderate El Niño 1 Weak El Niño 0,5 0 -0,5 Weak La Niña -1 Moderate La Niña -1,5 Strong La Niña -2 -2,5 -3 Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Current ENSO Situation • Water temperatures decreased some earlier this year, but have since warmed again to 1.1 ° C warmer than normal, reaching weak to moderate El Niño levels • Large area of warmer than normal water remains below the surface Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
IRI/CPC ENSO Model Forecasts Mid-March 2019 ENSO Model Plume (IRI/CPC) • Currently in weak El Niño NASA GMAO NCEP CFSv2 JMA BCC_CSM11m SAUDI-KAU LDEO AUS/POAMA ECMWF UKMO KMA SNU IOCAS ICM COLA CCSM4 MetFRANCE SINTEX-F CS-IRI-MM GFDL CM2.1 CMC CANSIP GFDL FLOR • Models in good PSD-CU LIM NTU CODA BCC_RZDM CPC MRKOV CPC CA CSU CLIPR UBC NNET FSU REGR UCLA-TCD AVERAGE 2 agreement that weak El 1,5 Niño will persist for at least the next few 1 months 0,5 • Average of models shows 0 weak El Niño persisting -0,5 through the end of the -1 year • No models show La Niña -1,5 -2 DEC JAN FEB MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
ENSO Conclusions • El Niño conditions to persist for at least a few more months • Weak El Niño conditions most likely for summer • La Niña very unlikely for Northern Hemisphere growing season Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Why it matters- El Niño precip correlation • Map shows typical rainfall deviations during El Niño events • Nearly the opposite of La Niña • Regional effects can still overwhelm the El Niño signal, however Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Black Sea Weather Outlook Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Black Sea Winter Recap (December through February) Winter Winter Temperature Precipitation Departure % of Normal • Warmer than normal winter across southern Russia and Ukraine, with no significant winterkill threats • Wetter than normal in Ukraine and southern Central Region Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Black Sea Spring to Date (March 1-April 10) Mar 1-Apr 10 Mar 1-Apr 10 Temperature Precipitation Departure % of Normal • Warmer than normal in most areas, especially Kazakhstan and western Siberia • Below normal precipitation across Ukraine, especially southern areas • Above normal precipitation across southern Russia, Volga Valley, Urals Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Black Sea Soil Moisture • Dryness across south central and western Ukraine and Belarus • Still some minor lingering dryness in southern Russia • Above normal soil moisture in Central Region and Volga Valley Subsoil Moisture Departure Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Black Sea 15 Day Forecast 15 Day 15 Day Temperature Precipitation Departure % of Normal • Cooler than normal temperatures expected in eastern Ukraine and western Russia • Below normal precipitation for Ukraine and northwestern Russia • Above normal precipitation for Kazakhstan Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Black Sea 3 Month Outlook Radiant Temperature Forecast May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Radiant Precipitation Forecast May 2019 Jul 2019 Jun 2019 Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Europe Weather Outlook Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Europe Winter Recap (December through February) Winter Winter Temperature Precipitation Departure % of Normal • Warm winter across most of Europe • Dry winter in the UK, Spain, southern France, Italy, and Hungary Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Europe Spring to Date (March 1-April 10) Mar 1-Apr 10 Mar 1-Apr 10 Temperature Precipitation Departure % of Normal • Central and eastern Europe remained warm • Dryness continued across southern Euope Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Europe Soil Moisture • Extensive dryness across southern Subsoil Moisture Europe, especially in Spain and Departure Hungary • Favorable soil moisture in the UK, northern France, Germany, and western Poland Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Europe 15 Day Forecast 15 Day 15 Day Temperature Precipitation Departure % of Normal • Cooler across southern and western Europe • Some improvement possible in Spain and Italy, but dry elsewhere Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Europe 3 Month Outlook Radiant Temperature Forecast Jun 2019 May 2019 Jul 2019 Radiant Precipitation Forecast May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
U.S. Weather Outlook Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
U.S Winter Recap (December-February) • Wetter than normal winter across most of the U.S., with record February snowfall in the north central U.S. • Some dryness across western Texas, however • Warm winter in the Southeast, but cold across the northern Plains Winter Winter Temperature Precipitation Departure % of Normal Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
U.S. Spring to Date (March 1-April 10) • Cold month nationally, especially early in the month • Wet weather and rapid snowmelt led to historic flooding in eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota • Wetter weather eased dryness in western Texas Mar 1-Apr 10 Mar 1-Apr 10 Temperature Precipitation Departure % of Normal Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Midwest Flooding • Rapid snowmelt and heavy rainfall in mid-March led to historic flooding in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa • Platte and Missouri Rivers saw the most extreme flooding • More than 500,000 acres flooded, including more than 438,000 acres where either corn or soybeans were cultivated last year • Flooding also occurring in the northern Plains, but not as severe due to slower snowmelt Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
Current Soil Moisture Situation • Soils much wetter than normal across the northern and central Plains and the western Midwest • Drying out in the Delta, but no significant areas of drought in the major crop areas Subsoil Moisture Departure from Normal Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential
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