Pathways for decarbonizing the road transport sector – the example of Germany Broghan Helgeson, Simon Paulus and Jakob Peter 15 th IAEE European Conference 2017 | 3 rd to 6 th September, 2017 Hofburg Congress Center | Vienna, Austria The work was partially carried under the research project “ Virtuelles Institut Strom zu Gas und Wärme ” financed by the Ministry for Innovation, Science and Research for the State of North Rhine-Westphalia (Ministerium für Innovation, Wissenschaft und Forschung des Landes NRW). Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft | Energiewirtschaftliches Institut der Universität zu Köln
Content 1. Introduction and Research Question 2. Literature and Methodology 3. Model Approach 4. Results 5. Conclusion & Further Research 2
Introduction and Research Question -9% vs. 2005 Sectors in the ETS -0,5% vs. 2005 Sectors not in the ETS Source for icons: thenounproject; Figure based on Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen (2015); Data taken from UBA (2012, 2015) 3
Research Questions • What is the cost-optimal decarbonization pathway in the German and European road transport sectors under a sector-specific CO 2 target? • What are the implications of the decarbonization of the road transport sector on the electricity sector? What role could sector-coupling technologies such as power-to-gas and electric vehicles have in a low- carbon fuel economy? 4
Literature and Methodology • Extensive literature exists that examine … Decarbonization via sector-coupling in a European (e.g., Knaut et al., 2016) and national context (e.g., Palzer and Henning, 2014) Energy modelling (e.g., Richter, 2011) and scenarios (e.g., Söderholm et al., 2011) Powert-to-X and synfuels (e.g. Brynolf et al., 2017) Transformation of the road transport sector for Europe (e.g., Schmidt et al., 2016) and nationally (e.g., Van Vliet et al., 2011; Romejko and Nakano, 2016) • We analyze the European road transport sector with complete interaction with the European electricity (and district heating) sectors using a cost- minimizing linear investment and dispatch model All investments are endogenous (including the corresponding electricity prices) as the cost function is minimized such that the equilibrium constraint is held at all points in time 5 Source: Richter (2011)
Model Extensions to DIMENSION: Sector coupling Power-to-X module (EU invest & dispatch) DIMENSION (EU electricity market invest & dispatch model) Road transport module (EU invest & dispatch) 6
Sector coupling – PtX technologies • Feed-in into gas grid limited by %- threshold for gas injections • H 2 usage within road transportation sector • H 2 usage within industrial sector (i.e. chemical industry) • Feed-in into gas grid limited by %- threshold for gas injections • H 2 or CH 4 storage within available infrastructure • Reconversion of H 2 or CH 4 to electricity • H 2 ,CH 4 or O 2 usage in road transportation sector and within selected industries • Gasoline or diesel used for conventional combustion engines or hybrids • O 2 may be sold to industries The PtX-technologies are modelled using various vintage classes based on technological progress (efficiency) and learning rates 7
Sector coupling – Road Transport Sector * H2: Hydrogen Gas, LH2: Liquid Hydrogen, CNG: Compressed Natural Gas, LNG: Liquid Natural Gas Note: Non-plug-in hybrids with gasoline, diesel and natural gas use a battery to assist the car in accelerating, braking and other non-driving features The model is coupled with the electricity sector and accounts for all carbon emissions for fuel transformation, fuel transport and combustion as well as costs for fuel production, fuel distribution, vehicles and infrastructure . 8
Scenario Definition 2020 2030 2050 EU-ETS CO 2 Cap -21% vs. 2005 (2020 -43% vs. 2005 (2030 climate -80% vs. 1990 (2050 low- climate & energy package) & energy framework) carbon economy) Country- and 2020 2030 2050 Sector-Specific -7% vs. 2005 (based on EU -38% vs. 2005 (based on EU -80% vs. 1990 (2050 low- Mobility CO 2 Cap effort-sharing decision) effort-sharing decision) carbon economy) 9
Results Germany: Road Transport Sector No emissions (TTW) Emissions (TTW) 10
Results Germany: Sector-Coupling 2 GW in 2030, 6 GW in 2045 electrolysis produces H 2 to be fed into natural gas grid (at 10%-vol limit) 11
Conclusions (for Germany) and further research • Natural gas and natural gas hybrids serve as a transition technology for passenger and light-duty vehicles • Gasoline hybrids will continue to use existing infrastructure in order to decarbonize the current passenger vehicle segment • Long-term, electric vehicles dominate passenger and light-duty vehicle segment • Power-to-hydrogen fed into natural gas grid is used in Germany in 2050 to reduce carbon emissions of natural gas hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles • Heavy-duty vehicles use liquid hydrogen starting in 2050, before that LNG • Electricity consumption due to sector-coupling increases by about 110 TWh in 2015 • Marginal CO 2 -abatement costs of road transport sector are at least 5 times higher than in the electricity sector • If WTT emissions (e.g., from gas reforming to produce H 2 ) are included in the EU- ETS, the cost-optimal decarbonization pathway for the road transport sector in the short- and medium- term is mainly conventional, but less carbon-intensive, fuels • Further research avenues include: Scenarios investigating further decarbonization policies Effects of infrastructure costs on investment decisions Long-term storage of PtX-products via higher spatial and temporal resolution Accounting for other environmental targets such as No x emissions, etc. Accounting for behavioral aspects 12
Thank you for your attention! Broghan Helgeson ewi Energy Research & Scenarios Alte Wagenfabrik Vogelsangerstraße 321 D-50827 Köln
Overview Data: Example of Road Transport Parameter Unit Description Total driving Demand for each segment per billion km distance per year year (ca. Annual driving 13,800 km/a (PPV), km/vehicle per Vehicle Technology distance per 21,800 km/a (LDV) year vehicle per year 70,000 km/a (HDV) 14 years (PPV), Vehicle lifetime years 10 years (LDV, HDV) Varies by vehicle technology Purchase price Euro/km and segment over time Varies by vehicle technology O&M costs Euro/km and segment over time Measures efficiency, varies by Fuel kWh/km vehicle technology and consumption segment over time kg CO2-eq/ CO 2 released upon CO 2 factor kWh-fuel combustion Fuel Type „Well -to- Tank“ kg CO2-eq/ CO 2 released from fuel CO 2 factor kWh-fuel production and distribution Fuel price Euro/kWh-fuel Varies by fuel and over time Transformation of fossil fuels Production costs Euro/kWh-fuel for use in road transport sector Infrastructure Capital costs Euro/vehicle Varies by fuel type over time O&M costs Euro/vehicle Varies by fuel type over time Distribution costs Euro/vehicle Varies by fuel type over time Infrastructure years 14 years lifetime 14
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