4/10/2017 Munib and Angela Masri Institute of Energy and Natural Resources American University of Beirut – April 2017 Geo-Science and Engineering Needs in the Energy Sector J. Carlos Santamarina KAUST Social Media (2017) American Petroleum Institute – Super Bowl BP - Biofuels Committed to better energy Exxonmobil – Biofuels Shell – ECO-marathon 1
4/10/2017 News Deepwater Horizon Explosion: 4/20/10 (@10 pm) Oil slick: 5/6/10 Sinks: 4/22/10 (~10 am) Contents Energy = Tera-Problem Energy Geo-Science & Engineering 2
4/10/2017 TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % Usage LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015 TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % Usage LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015 86% Fossil fuels 3
4/10/2017 TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % Usage LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015 Transition from C-economy to renewables: will be C-fueled ! TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % Usage LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015 Phase-out nuclear? Not yet… But: Waste? Onshore reserves? Risks? 4
4/10/2017 TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % Usage LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015 Transportation: Oil-based, and most inefficient! TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % Usage LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015 Efficiency AND conservation 5
4/10/2017 EIA 2015 Sources: Trends Note: ~ BP ~ MIT ~ OPEC Renewables: biomass, hydro, solar, wind Fossil fuels - Projection: decreased % of total … but, increased consumption Consumption - Worldwide 100% Cum. Power Consumption 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Power consumption [kW/pers] 6
4/10/2017 Consumption - Worldwide 100% Cum. Power Consumption 1000 times 80% 60% 40% 2000 cal 20% 0% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Power consumption [kW/pers] Pronounced differences worldwide Consumption - Worldwide 100% Canada Cum. Power Consumption USA 80% Rusia 60% Japan Germany 40% 20% China India 0% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Power consumption [kW/pers] 7
4/10/2017 Consumption - Worldwide Qatar Bahrain 100% UAE Kuwait Cum. Power Consumption 80% KSA 60% Oman 40% 20% 0% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Power consumption [kW/pers] Consumption - Worldwide 100% Cum. Power Consumption 80% 16% Population 56% Energy 60% 40% 84% Population 44% Energy 20% 5 0% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Power consumption [kW/pers] 8
4/10/2017 Consumption - Worldwide 100% Savings= Cum. Power Consumption 80% 1.8 T$ (2016) 2.5 T$ (2040) 60% 40% 20% 5 0% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Power consumption [kW/pers] “>5 spenders”: Efficiency + Conservation … But will we do with savings ?! Consumption - Worldwide 100% Cum. Power Consumption 80% sustainable 60% energy system 40% 2000 cal 20% 0% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Power consumption [kW/pers] Sustainable energy system 9
4/10/2017 Population Growth: 20,000,000 per year 6 countries > 4,000,000 5 Population Growth [%/yr] 4 3 2 1 0 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 -1 Data: CIA, UN -2 Power [W / Person] Reproductive choices future energy demands & individual’s C-footprint <1% 1.0-1.5% 1.5-2.1% 2.1-3.0% >3% Migration Population Growth No info 320 W/m 2 280 W/m 2 200 W/m 2 Human Development Index Insolation <120 W/m 2 Match: Solar! Distributed – Correlated with growing needs – Grid-independent ± 10
4/10/2017 Oil Reserves Big consumers … low producers Mismatch: Conflicts and migration – 14 M refugees – 1.8 T$/yr military expenditure Strategies: 2040 Horizon Conservation = reduce overspending Leapfrog-Tech Good governance 11
4/10/2017 Modern Cities & Infrastructure = Cheap Fossil Fuels Atlanta Paris 6M people 12M people 22,000 km 2 12,000 km 2 250 p/km 2 1000 p/km 2 Revolution in transportation … the technology is available Transportation Revolution 2013 Volkswagen 100 km/l 2017 Chevrolet Bolt 50 km/l Chevrolet Volt 2016 45 km/l (2 nd generation) 2015 BMW i3 51 km/l 12
4/10/2017 Energy Density [MJ/kg] Hydroelectric H=100m 0.001 Coal 23 Oil ~ gasoline 45 Hydrogen 140 Uranium (effective) 900,000 NOTE: 1.0 lt of gasoline = 10 m 2 of solar panels for 1 day Fossil fuels: very compact engineering Real-cost Pricing Lifetime Cost Energy Plant Type ¢ / kWh Offshore Wind 20.0 Coal & CCS 14.4 PV Solar 12.5 Gas & CCS 10.0 Nuclear 9.5 Coal 9.5 Hydro-electric 8.4 Gas 7.5 Land Based Wind 7.4 http://solarcellcentral.com Real-cost pricing proper techno-economical optimization 13
4/10/2017 10 12 Summary: TERA-problem Tera-dollars 100’s T$ infrastructure (optimized for cheap oil) 77 T$ global GDP 2014 >1 T$ for CCS 2.5 T$ savings “>5 spenders” 1.8 T$ military expenditure 6.6 T$ cost to Miami due to climate change Tera-watt 17 TW power consumption 8 TW increased demand 2040 Tera-kg 20 Tkg CO 2 emitted Summary: Sustainable Energy System Global: Reduce differences in P cons & QL Governments QL and P cons Real-cost pricing techno-$ optimization Developed Efficiency + Conservation (start with transport) Nations: Save > 1.8 T$/year with today’s technology How would affluent societies use savings? Developing Increase quality of life Nations: Leapfrog technology Most benefit from solar Energy Complex … Difficult choices … Urgency transition: Fueled by fossil fuels ! 14
4/10/2017 Contents Energy = Tera-Problem Energy Geo-Science & Engineering Time Scales O 2 atmosph 230-65 MYA: 2.5 BYA: 1.5 BYA: bacteria 3.5 BYA: dinosaurs plants coal & petrol 4.5 B 4 By 3 By 2 By 1 By 0 magnification: 2x10 6 -6000 yr -4000 yr -2000 yr 0 2000 yr Fossil Fuels = >400My solar energy … consumed in <400yr 15
4/10/2017 Length Scales earth radius: 6371 km google_earth atmosphere: 80% within 10 km Energy Geo-Science and Engineering FOSSIL FUELS (C-based) RENEWABLE Oil Gas Coal GeoT Hydro Wind Solar BioF Nuclear Site Characterization Properties of Geomaterials Reservoir Monitoring & Management Infrastructure Design Build, Retrofit, Decommission Geo-Storage Energy & Waste Geo-Environmental Remediation Efficiency and Conservation 16
4/10/2017 COAL 26% energy worldwide Sedimentary rock made of carbon ‐ Forms seams or beds Origen Recovery: shaft & underground mines or open pit World: 10 12 ton Reserves (China, USA, Pakistan, Russia, India, Australia) Electric power generation Consumption World: 8x10 9 ton/yr (China, USA, India) Energy density: 24 MJ/kg (Most efficient plant: 49%) Energetics Emitted CO 2 = 0.96 kg/kW.h Characterization: Stratigraphy. Faulting. Properties. Gas Mine design and operation: roof stability Geo ‐ Science Optimal extraction strategies & material handling Coal combustion products: Fly ash (USA: 130 10 6 tons/year) & Abandonment: Re ‐ use. Reclamation. Backfill Engineering Environmental impact: acid mine drainage, methane release Monitoring active and abandoned mines >130 10 6 ton/yr Coal Ash Contamination >1,000 operating ash landfills 100s "retired" disposal sites Contaminated Site Spill Contaminated & Spill http://earthjustice.org 17
4/10/2017 TVA Kingston Plant (22 December 2008) 34 ha, up to 22 m high ash disposal cell ~2.10 6 m 3 released OIL 34% energy worldwide Accumulation of organic matter in sedimentary basins Origin Maturation (P&T in “oil window”) Migration: source to reservoir (geoplumbing and traps) World: 1.5x10 12 barrels Reserves Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait World: 3.2x10 10 barrels/yr Primarely: transportation Consumption USA, EU, China, Japan, India Energy density: 46 MJ/kg (effective: ~15 MJ/kg) Energetics Emitted CO 2 at power plants: 0.88 kg/kW.h New reservoirs Locations: Deep (HT&HP). Arctic regions & Formations: weak, fractured, compressible, beneath salt Very viscous or immobile oils (oil sands and oil shales) challenges 18
4/10/2017 OIL 34% energy worldwide Characterization: Geo ‐ pluming, subsalt, u, ’, T Physical properties: permeability … and all others Drilling, completion, leaks, zonal isolation Production: inherently mixed fluid flow (water, oil, gas) Geo ‐ Science Fines migration and clogging … asphaltenes & Reservoir stimulation: HF, acid, steam, “smart water” Engineering Subsidence, fault reactivation, casing buckling/shear Monitoring: deformations, microseismicity, fluid pressure. Infrastructure (onshore and offshore) Waste reinjection (fluids and grains) Carbonates: 60% of Worldwide Reserves www.slb.com Foraminifera – Globigerinoides (Globigerinina) 19
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