GEO-IV 28-29 November 2007 GEO-IV 28-29 November 2007 The Socio-Economic and Environmental Benefits of a Revolution in Weather, Climate and Earth-System Prediction Document 22: Task CL-07-01 White Paper prepared under Co-Leadership of
GEO-IV 28-29 November 2007 The Socio-Economic and Environmental Benefits of a Revolution in Weather, Climate and Earth-System Prediction Melvyn Shapiro, Jagadish Shukla, Brian Hoskins, John Church, Kevin Trenberth, Michel Béland, Guy Brasseur, Mike Wallace, Gordon McBean, Jim Caughey, David Rogers, Gilbert Brunet, Leonard Barrie, Ann Henderson-Sellers, David Burridge, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Martin Miller, Philippe Bougeault, Rick Anthes, Zoltan Toth and Tim Palmer Representing academic and operational-services communities
A Weather, Climate and Earth-System Prediction Project for the 21st Century
A Weather, Climate and Earth-System Prediction Project for the 21st Century • Increase our capacity to mitigate and adapt to socio-economic losses arising from high- impact weather and climate • Realize the full benefits from the observation, prediction and early-warning system components of Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS)
The proposed Project is comparable to the International Space Station and Hubble Telescope
with a socio-economic benefits-to-cost ratio that is much higher
PROJECT ELEMENTS • Decision Information to mitigate and adapt to the impact of weather and climate hazards • High-Resolution Forecast Models of the atmosphere, ocean, land, bio-geochemical and socio-economic processes • Advanced Data-Assimilation Systems that enhance the use of observations from space, land and ice surfaces, and oceans • Science and Technology Transition into operational products and services • Education, Science and Technology Projects to enhance government and public awareness of the value and utilization of weather, climate, environmental and socioeconomic information
Other sectors---other uses Other sectors---other uses
Driving Principles for Managing with Environmental Information • Regulatory • Decision Accountability/Shareholder Value • Safety of Life and property • Market Economics & Competitive Advantage • Risk reduction • Reliability, Efficiency, Sustainability • Corporate Social Responsibility- Indices
Energy Operations Aided by Energy Operations Aided by • Sales/earnings forecasting Sales/earnings forecasting • Energy storage replenishment strategies Energy storage replenishment strategies Reductions in Environmental Reductions in Environmental • “Flexible” energy production and delivery “Flexible” energy production and delivery • Storage requirements needs assessment Storage requirements needs assessment • Storage logistics planning Storage logistics planning Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty • Regional Energy Regional Energy mngt mngt. planning . planning • Stockpile planning Stockpile planning • Seasonal demand forecasts Seasonal demand forecasts • Delivery rate setting Delivery rate setting • Hydo Hydo regional water regional water mngt mngt. Strategy . Strategy • Compliance projections estimates Compliance projections estimates Forecast Forecast Years Years Seasons Seasons Uncertainty Uncertainty Months Months Forecast Uncertainty 8 – 14 Days 8 – 14 Days Forecast Uncertainty • Customer billing service Customer billing service • Pump load forecasting Pump load forecasting 6 – 10 Days 6 – 10 Days • Fuel supply forecasting Fuel supply forecasting • Energy switching strategy Energy switching strategy • Distributed Distributed generat generat. . mngt mngt. • Infrastructure design Infrastructure design Days Days • Maintenance scheduling Maintenance scheduling • Regional infrastructure plan Regional infrastructure plan • Sequestration timing Sequestration timing • New storage capacity plans New storage capacity plans • Inventory management Inventory management • Mitigation strategy design Mitigation strategy design • Tariff calling Tariff calling Hours Hours • Pipeline throughput Pipeline throughput mngt mngt. • Plant/ infrastructure siting Plant/ infrastructure siting • Utility grid management Utility grid management • Energy grid adaptation plans Energy grid adaptation plans • Wind generation dispatch Wind generation dispatch • Energy policy setting Energy policy setting • Hydo Hydo supply management supply management Minutes Minutes • Ship/tanker routing Ship/tanker routing • Refining operations Refining operations mngt mngt. • Load balancing Load balancing • Pipeline laying logistics Pipeline laying logistics • Electricity pricing/ trading Electricity pricing/ trading • Outage/surge Outage/surge mngt mngt. Forecast Lead Time Forecast Lead Time • “Intelligent” infrastructure “Intelligent” infrastructure Critical forecast periods • “Net metering” “Net metering” Sub day, 2-4 day, 90 day • Dispatch management Dispatch management • Hazard response Hazard response • Platform operations Platform operations
Water Operations Aided by Water Operations Aided by • Sales/earnings forecasting Sales/earnings forecasting • • Water storage replenishment strategies Water storage replenishment strategies • Reductions in Weather/Climate Reductions in Weather/Climate • “Flexible” water production and delivery • “Flexible” water production and delivery • Storage requirements needs assessment Storage requirements needs assessment • • Storage logistics planning Storage logistics planning • Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty • Regional Water • Regional Water mngt mngt. planning . planning • Stockpile planning • Stockpile planning • Seasonal demand forecasts Seasonal demand forecasts • • Delivery rate setting Delivery rate setting • • Hydo • Hydo regional water regional water mngt mngt. Strategy . Strategy • Compliance projections estimates Compliance projections estimates • Forecast Forecast Years Years Seasons Seasons Uncertainty Uncertainty Months Months Forecast Uncertainty 8 – – 14 Days 14 Days Forecast Uncertainty 8 • Customer billing service • Customer billing service • Water supply forecasting Water supply forecasting • 6 – – 10 Days 10 Days 6 • snowmelt snowmelt • • • Maintenance scheduling Maintenance scheduling • Inventory management Inventory management • • Infrastructure design Infrastructure design • Days Days • Pipeline throughput Pipeline throughput mngt mngt. . • • Regional infrastructure plan • Regional infrastructure plan • • Pump load determination Pump load determination • • New storage capacity plans New storage capacity plans • Mitigation strategy design Mitigation strategy design • • • Utility network Utility network Hours Hours • Plant/ infrastructure siting Plant/ infrastructure siting • management management • • Water policy setting Water policy setting • Hydo • Hydo supply management supply management • Pipeline laying logistics • Pipeline laying logistics Minutes Minutes • Water rate setting Water rate setting • • Boil water “ orders Boil water “ orders • Forecast Lead Time Forecast Lead Time • Demand forecasting Demand forecasting • • Shortage/drought management • Shortage/drought management • “Intelligent” infrastructure “Intelligent” infrastructure • • Dispatch management Dispatch management • • • Hazard response Hazard response
Water Temperature Prediction for Fish Species Management
Present and Future Observing Systems
Data Assimilation Machine Charlie
The Earth Simulator Center Data assimilation utilises the laws governing atmospheric and oceanic motion, thermodynamics, and composition to integrate diverse observations for monitoring and prediction of the Earth System.
REQUIREMENTS • Dedicated High-Performance Computer Facilities with capacities 10,000-times that of today linked to a global network of research, forecast and early-warning centres” • Research to improve the performance and application of forecast models and user products • Maintaining and Enhancing Observing Systems to support present and future prediction, monitoring and early-warning systems • Information Communic ation Systems with rapid high-band- width data access and visualization of weather, climate events, forecasts, warnings and impacts • National and International Support for the Project development and implementation
Global Societies will Project Outcomes Will Include:
Projections of the Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events in a Changing Climate Asian Regional Committee, Seoul, Korea Asian Regional Committee, Seoul, Korea 24 March 2004 24 March 2004 7 Tropical Cyclones Winter Storms Floods Heat Waves
112%
Maximum Daily Ozone Concentration: red dots 180 pphm/vol EXTREME 50 - 99 Sensitive people may experience irritation when breathing and possible lung damage when physically active; people with heart/lung disorders at greater risk; damage to some plants. 100 or over Serious respiratory effects, even during light physical activity; people with heart/lung disorders at high risk; more vegetation damage. 850 mbTemperature, shaded
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