G20 Seminar on Employment Policies, Phili Philippe Egger, Paris, April 2011 E P i A il 2011
Employment to Employment to Population Ratio pulation Ratio Second Semester 2010 Second Semester 2010 and and 2009 2009 (Base 2nd (Base 2nd Semester 2007=100) Semester 2007=100) 108 106 Better than 2007 and 2009 TUR 104 45º Line BRA* IDN 102 ARG* DEU RUS 100 100 AUS 2010 FRA mester 201 Worse than 2007 but better than 2009 KOR GBR 98 MEX CAN me JPN 96 96 2nd Se Se ITA 2nd 94 USA 92 92 ZAF 90 Worse than 2007 and 2009 ESP 88 86 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 2nd 2nd Seme 2nd 2nd Seme Semester 200 emester 200 2009 2009 Note: Size of the bubbles represents the number of total employment. Data for Argentina and Brazil are urban. International Labour Office (ILO) 2
Growth and Variati Growt and Variation in n in Unem Unempl ploym oyment Rates - nt Rates - 2010 2010 2.5 2 5 ESP 2 Economic Contraction and Increase in and Increase in Unemployment 1.5 ZAF n pp) n pp) Linear Trend 1 10 (in ITA Economic growth and increase in unemployment 2010 (i USA 0.5 GBR on 2 FRA iation KOR JPN MEX riat 0 0 CAN CAN ployment Var mployment V -1 0 1 2 3 DEU 4 5 6 7 8 9 AUS IDN -0.5 RUS ARG* Unem Une -1 BRA* -1.5 Economic growth and decrease in unemployment g p y TUR -2 -2 5 2.5 Note: Size of the bubbles represents the number of unemployed persons. Gro Growth Rat Rate 201 2010 (in (in %) %) Labour data for Argentina and Brazil are urban. Data for Unemployment in 2010 correspond to the average of data available. Data for Growth is the annual forecast of the WEO International Labour Office (ILO) 3
� Growth cluster: expanding domestic and external � Growth cluster: expanding domestic and external demand; growth in labour-intensive sectors; rising real wages, including minimum wage; g g , g g ; expanding social protection; structural challenges remain. � Lacklustre growth cluster: low investment and business confidence; subdued domestic demand; low labour intensity of growth; shifts in sectoral activity require time (construction); rising long ti it i ti ( t ti ) i i l term unemployment; many structural challenges. International Labour Office (ILO) 4
World World GDP GDP (1999 (1999 =100), =100), working working poor poor (US$ 2 (US$ 2 a a day) day) and and wage wage employm employment as nt as % % of of total total employme employment nt 60 140 World GDP 130 55 working poor 120 50 110 45 100 100 wage employment 40 90 35 80 1999 2003 2009 International Labour Office (ILO) 5
International Labour Office (ILO) 6
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0 1 0.1 0 Sources: OECD STAT Database, 2010; World Bank development Indicators, 2010 S OECD STAT D t b 2010 W ld B k d l t I di t 2010 International Labour Office (ILO) 7
� Leaders agreed: � “To launch a framework that lays out the policies and the way we act together to li i d th t t th t generate strong, sustainable and balanced global growth We need a durable recovery global growth. We need a durable recovery that creates the good jobs our people need.” International Labour Office (ILO) 8
� Accelerate job creation to ensure a sustained recovery and � Accelerate job creation to ensure a sustained recovery and future growth; � Strengthen social protection systems and promote inclusive h l d l active labour market policies; � Place employment and poverty alleviation at the centre of national and global economic strategies; � Improve the quality of jobs for our people; � Prepare our workforces for future challenges and opportunities. International Labour Office (ILO) 9
Broad-based growth: strong, sustainable, balanced, strong middle of income distribution, very low to no poverty, Social protection, education and training, Investment, enterprise development, employment, rising productivity, rights at l t i i d ti it i ht t l b labour force participation, equal f ti i ti l work, collective bargaining, opportunities wage/productivity linkages International Labour Office (ILO) 10
Employment/GDP Employment/GDP < 0.30 0.30 ‐ 0.66 > 0.66 0.6 Japan, Germany, India, Italy Italy low wage low wage < 0 Turkey Indonesia, US tivity .5 Australia, Brazil, Australia Brazil Wage /product 0.55 ‐ 1. China France, Korea, Rep., Canada South Africa, UK > 1.5 Mexico, Russia Argentina high wage Saudi Arabia low employment high employment Sources: OECD STAT Database, 2010; World Bank development Indicators, 2010 International Labour Office (ILO) 11
Active fiscal and monetary policies Unemployment benefits � � Employment services Employment services Real economy investments Real economy investments, � � � � Active inclusive labour market including infrastructure and � policies and programmes “green” economy Skills development and training Support to SMEs (credit, R&D, pp ( , , � � ( (see G20 Training Strategy) G20 T i i S ) institutional) and sustainable School-to-employment transitions, � enterprises including apprenticeships Sectoral and regional investment � Extension of basic social Extension of basic social � � and development policies protection Collective bargaining broadly Targeted employment � � aligning productivity and wages programmes Fundamental principles and rights F d t l i i l d i ht Minimum wage policies Mi i li i � � at work and other relevant labour Hiring subsidies (targeted, � standards temporary) Tax policies favourable to T li i f bl t � employment International Labour Office (ILO) 12
� “Countries should give consideration as Countries should give consideration, as � appropriate, to the following: ◦ B uilding adequate social protection for all, g q p , drawing on a basic social protection floor including: access to health care, income security for the elderly and persons with disabilities, child f h ld l d h d b l h ld benefits and income security combined with public employment guarantee schemes for the public employment guarantee schemes for the unemployed and working poor” ◦ A Global Jobs Pact, adopted by the International A Global Jobs Pact, adopted by the International Labour Conference on 19 June 2009 International Labour Office (ILO) 13
� Lower � Higher � Consumption � Morbidity Employment of � Poverty y working age adults ki d lt � Child labour � Productivity � Income Volatility y � Gender equality � Gender equality � Precautionary savings � School enrolment International Labour Office (ILO) 14
35 30 2000 latest year 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: ILO, 2010, World Social Security report International Labour Office (ILO) 15
� “ � …in seeking to maintain the link between in seeking to maintain the link between social progress and economic growth, the guarantee of fundamental principles and guarantee of fundamental principles and rights at work is of particular significance in that it enables the persons concerned, to that it enables the persons concerned, to claim freely and on the basis of equality of opportunity, their fair share of the wealth opportunity, their fair share of the wealth which they have helped to generate, and to achieve fully their human potential; …” y p ; International Labour Office (ILO) 16
Country Country Freedom of Association Freedom of Association Elimination of forced labour Elimination of forced labour Elimination of discrimination Elimination of discrimination Abolition of child labour Abolition of child labour and collective bargaining and compulsory labour (employment and occupation) Convention 87 98 29 105 100 111 138 182 Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany India Indonesia Italy Japan Korea, Rep. of Mexico Russian Fed. Saudi Arabia South Africa Spain Turkey United Kingdom United States Ratifications = Ratifications 14 14 13 13 16 16 17 17 19 19 18 18 14 14 19 19 International Labour Office (ILO) 17
� Policies to combat child labour; forced labour; � Policies to combat child labour; forced labour; discrimination in employment and occupation; � Policies to promote full, freely chosen and productive employment; � Policies and institutions to facilitate social dialogue and collective bargaining on wages dialogue and collective bargaining on wages, working time, occupational safety and health, social protection. p � ILO assistance to countries that seek to gradually, step by step, bring their legislation and practice in conformity with the principles of d i i f i i h h i i l f fundamental conventions. International Labour Office (ILO) 18
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: ILO and United Nations International Labour Office (ILO) 19
� Employment and social protection policies are � Employment and social protection policies are essentially a national responsibility � Yet, in a globalized economy, each country has Y t i l b li d h t h an interest in seeing others achieve high levels of productive employment and social protection with rights at work (decent work) h h k (d k) � Employment and social protection policies and � Employment and social protection policies and outcomes are a shared interest within a framework of strong, sustainable and balanced growth growth International Labour Office (ILO) 20
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