Future G HG and Air-pollutant emission range consistent with the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

21th AIM International W orkshop, NIES Future G HG and Air-pollutant emission range consistent with the SSP in East Asia region Chan Park, Dong Kun Lee, Jin Han Park, M i Jin Lee, Tae Yong Jung, Yongwon M o, Junghyun W oo 14 Nov., 2015

 Hot-spot area of climate change Cur urrent nt M id id ter erm Long ong t term Area ea Cat atego gory (1986 1986- 2005) 2005) (2046 2046- 2065 2065) (2081 2081- 2100) 2100) Korea ea pe peni nins nsul ula 11.3 11. +2. 2.3 (+3. 3.3) 3) +3. 3.0 (+5. 5.9) 9) Average age East st Asi sia - +1. 1.9 - +2. 2.4 - erature ( ℃ ) tem emper Globa obal - +1. 1.4 (+2. 2.0) 0) +1. 1.8 (+3. 3.7) Korea ea pe peni nins nsul ula 1144. 1144.5 +13% 13% +21% 21% +20% 20% (+18% 18%) Precip ipit itatio ion East st Asi sia +7% 7% S ource: CM IP5 results based on RCP4.5 ( ) means RCP8.5 result  South Korea's climate change laws - Framework Act on Low Carbon G reen G rowth / 2010 - Act on the allocation and trade of greenhouse gas emissions rights / 2012 - Act on the Creation and Facilitation of Use of Smart G rids / 2011

 "No Regrets" Approach to Decision-M aking against climate change - Characterizing Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change and impact - Integrated assessment modelling coupled with Regional characteristic Hanaoka manicbeancounter Hu et al., 2013 Socio-economic scenario M odelling (LLG HG , SLCP) Cost  To develop an integrated evaluation system for climate policy by interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models (emission and impact), and climate models

Regional Scale Global Scale Downscaling Climate Model Climate Model CCSM WRF NIER/SNU- OFF/ON Line ICAMS OFF/ON Line Coupling Coupling Global Scale Regional Scale Regional emission OFF/ON Line Coupling scenario Air Quality Air Quality Model Model (based on SSP, RCP) Downscaling CMAQ GEOS-Chem Theme 1 (Today topic) Regional Climate Regional Air- scenario Quality scenario Climate/air-quality Policy Assumptions M itigation + M itigation cost Adaptation cost Adaptation cost Supported Decision- M aking

 To Present emission scenarios of Long-lived G HG (LLG HG ) and Short lived Climate Pollutant (SLCP) (East Asia region) for climate modeling Socio-eco So conomic c Par aram am. CREA EATE/ E/CAPS PSS GAIN INS-Globa obal CC CC-AQ P Polic licy & T T ech. e (No Non-Asi sian bas asey eyear ear EI EI) (Asi sian bas asey eyear ear EI EI) Mosaic EI EI ME S S S S A AGE –Chi hina na (Glo lobal l bas asey eyear ear EI EI) AIM –Ko Korea EC ECLIPS PSE E RC RCP 4 4.5 AIM -J ap apan an (Fut utur ure Proj ojection on (Fut utur ure Proj ojection on F actor f r for A r Asia) ) F actor or f for or non non-Asi sia) Fut utur ure ene nergy gy us use/Fue uel us use/non non- KU KU-E E P P S S S S M MOKE -As s i ia en ener ergy ac activities es • En End-of of-pi pipe pe cont ontrol ol meas easures es CM CMAQ- Read eady GEO EOS-Ch Chem- Fut utur ure E EIs Read eady F Future E e EIs Fut utur ure Proj ojection on (Regi giona onal, (Globa obal, 0. 0.5 5 deg eg F F a actor 54km km/18km km gr gridde dded, d, M Mont onthl hly, gridde gr dded, d, H Hour ourly, (China/ a/Korea/ ea/Jap apan) spec eciat ated ed) spec eciat ated ed)

 Time  2010 - 2100 - Base Year : 2010, Target Year : 2030, 2050, 2100  Sectors  Fuel combustion (Residential sector, Commercial sector, Transport sector, Industry sector (Steel, Cement, Other industries))  Industrial process, Agriculture, Waste (Residential sector, Commercial sector, Industry sector), Fuel mining, Others  Data  Population, G DP : OECD, IIASA, National Statistics  M itigation policy : National policy, Suggested policy from research  Technology : AIM Enduse[G LOBAL], G AINS-China  Discount rate: 5%  Energy price: W orld Energy Outlook  Emission factor: IPCC guideline  Climate scenario : RCP8.5, RCP4.5

High emission Scenario Low emission Scenario BAU emission Including Scenario mitigation policies

 Population  G DP Hanaoka

 M odel: AIM Enduse G lobal Hanaoka., 2015

SSP Scenarios SG- China Message model input CO2 Message Emissions -China Energy demand by sector CREATE Air inventory Pollutants Qiang Zhang (Tsinghua Univ)

SO2 NOx P M2. 5 V OC

 G lobal : ECLIPSE version 5  Regional : CREATE (NIER-KU)  Korea : CAPSS (NIER)

 Emission inventory : G HG (CO2, CH4, N2O), Air-pollutant (SO2, NOx, PM 10, CO, BC, TSP, VOC, NH3)  Sector’s Contribution to G HG : (2010) Building 21% , Transport16% , Industry 63% (2100) Building (13-18)% , Transport (26-28)% , Industry (56-59)%  Sector’s Contribution to Air-pollutant : (2010) Building 6% , Transport 63% , Industry 31% (2100) Building (8-11)% , Transport (55-66)% , Industry (26-33)%

 Emission inventory : G HG (CO2, CH4, N2O), Air-pollutant (SO2, NOx, BC)  Sector’s Contribution to G HG : (2010) Building 20% , Transport 24% , Industry 56% (2100) Building (17-25)% , Transport (7-32)% , Industry (51-68)%  Sector’s Contribution to Air-pollutant : (2010) Building 2% , Transport 82% , Industry 31% (2100) Building (1-2)% , Transport (74-93)% , Industry (6-23)%

 Emission inventory : G HG (CO2, CH4), Air-pollutant (SO2, NOx, PM 2.5, CO, BC) High BaU Low CO2 G t Qiang Zhang (Tsinghua Univ)

Gg/yr Low CO SO2 NOx High BaU CH4 PM 2.5 VOC Qiang Zhang (Tsinghua Univ)

Emission Contribution of Asia in 2010 Emission Contribution of East Asia in 2010 55% 60% 41% 44% 43% 32% 63% 59% 70% 55% 77% 46% + C O, C H4 divided by 5 * C O 2 unit: P g/y r Emission G AP NOx VOC

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