From Big Picture to Taxes Auke Hoekstra 16-5-2017 PAGE 0 About me - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

From Big Picture to Taxes Auke Hoekstra 16-5-2017 PAGE 0

About me  My mission is to accelerate the transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles by providing knowledge to decision makers.  Senior advisor smart mobility TU/e where I am the resident expert on EV (after prof Steinbuch) and help with starting new research projects and lead the ABCD model.  Strategic consultant ElaadNL, Alliander, FET, NKL & province of Brabant (100k EV plan and Fuse).  Linking pin to parliament / economic affairs (study with Ecofys)  auke@aukehoekstra.nl / @aukehoekstra / 06-51614294 16-5-2017 PAGE 1

Solar and wind are quickly becoming the cheapest sources of energy 16-5-2017 PAGE 2

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Main advantage of EV is the motor 16-5-2017 PAGE 5

Motor is 3x more efficient: less energy cost Motor does not require maintenance: less cost ICE Electrische motor 1,6 kW/kg 4,3 kW/kg 3x power 0,4kW/lr 13,6 kW/lr 40x smaller 20-25% efficient 90-98% efficient 3-4x efficiency Maintenance free 1 moving part Many moving parts Leuk! 16-5-2017 PAGE 6

Overall picture PV 20% Transport + charge EV 14% 17% Photosynthesis Rerinary, transport Fuel car 0,38% & filling up 0,16% 0,03% 16-5-2017 PAGE 7

Battery prices are main driver for adoption 16-5-2017 PAGE 8

Battery prices are main driver for adoption 1400 1200 Price $/kWh 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 16-5-2017 PAGE 9

Battery degradation is under control 16-5-2017 PAGE 10

Many charging speeds 16-5-2017 PAGE 11

What Physical Standard will Win? 16-5-2017 PAGE 12

Inductive Charging? 16-5-2017 PAGE 13

Charging while driving? 16-5-2017 PAGE 14

How do we trade energy in a flexible system that optimizes renewable energy use and spares the grid? 16-5-2017 PAGE 15

ABCD model Agent-based Buying Charging Driving model Auke Hoekstra Senior advisor smart mobility TU/e Strategic consultant ElaadNL, Alliander, Urgenda, FET & NKL E-mail: auke@aukehoekstra.nl Twitter: @aukehoekstra The ABCD model Phone: 06-51614294

EV is an interrelated area • Battery and drive-train prices determine the succes of EVs and the success of EVs determines battery and drive train prices • The succes of EVs is determined by available models and available models are determined by the succes of EVs • Driving behavior determines how interesting an EV is, where you need charge points and what room you have for smart charging. • The availability of charge points co-determines the desirability of EVS which co-determines the need for charge points (chicken-egg problem). 16-5-2017 PAGE 17

The developments play on different levels so we need a multi-level model • (Inter)national to model climate problems and technological advances (batteries, drivetrains, renewable energy generation) • Regional to model driving to and from destination and the required charge points • Individual to simulate buying/charging decisions and model the load on the grid 16-5-2017 PAGE 18

Agent-based modeling? People first, equations later. • Bottom-up without imposing the structure of the system in advance (no pre-determined feedback loops) • Ability to divide the complexity into self contained "agents" makes it manageable (linear instead of exponential growth of compexity when you add variables) • Using recognizable agents and a bottom-up approach means we can enlist the help of domain experts 16-5-2017 PAGE 19

Multi-layer with buildings, roads, EVs, chargepoints and electricity grid. 16-5-2017 PAGE 20

Overall model 16-5-2017 PAGE 21

Ecofys + TU/e study for Economic Affairs TCO model Adoption Charging Infra > > • TCO developments show Analyse driving behavior Customer groeps fast adoption • Car classes (A, C, E) • > Drive trains Prioritize infra: • New/second hand – Autonomous – Home • Developments in – Work • Battery – • Public Motor – • Incentives Fast • Energieprices 16-5-2017 PAGE 22

Conservative Scenario http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2016-eindrapport- toekomstverkenning-elektrisch-vervoer.pdf 16-5-2017 PAGE 23

Recommendations • Stimulate work charging (no tax incentives needed) • Facilitate public charging (Energy Tax + CPO incentives) • Create a good network of fast chargers (could be stimulated more than currently with e.g. feed in tarriff) • Good TCO education! (saves lots of money) • Facilitate smart charging (decentralized renewable energy, grid costs, social cohesion) • Promote autonomous driving and thus car sharing 16-5-2017 PAGE 24