for the Post-Kyoto World ISDC 2009 John D. Sterman Jay W. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Copenhagen Climate Exercise: 
 Negotiating a Global Agreement for the Post-Kyoto World ISDC 2009 John D. Sterman Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management Professor of Engineering Systems Director MIT System Dynamics Group MIT Sloan School of Management Kris Wile Systems Thinking Collaborative

Agenda • Introduction and schedule • Roles • The COP15 Copenhagen Negotiation • Debrief and your feedback

C-ROADS Development Team 
 ( Climate Rapid Overview And Decision Support) – Dr. Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems – Travis Franck, MIT (Ph.D. student) – Andrew Jones, Sustainability Institute – Dr. Phil Rice, Sustainability Institute – Dr. Beth Sawin, Sustainability Institute – Dr. Lori Siegel, Sustainability Institute – Dr. John Sterman, MIT System Dynamics Group

Partners and Financial Supporters

With Partners in the Climate Action Initiative, C-ROADS Has Already Impacted Global Decisions • US State Department Deputy Special Envoy for Climate Change Jonathan Pershing presented C-ROADS slides in his plenary to the UNFCCC in Bonn – April 2009 • Senator John Kerry quotes C- ROADS results and shows graphs in Congress – January 2009 • European Environment Agency head, Dr. Jacqueline McGlade, uses C-ROADS. • Increasing press coverage

To Meet the Overwhelming Demand, We Created C-Learn as Globally-Accessible Online Freeware And we will share: 1. All equations 2. Simulation in Vensim software (with a GPL license) 3. Code to the xhtml interface (with a GPL license) 4. Graph sets with data behind them Launched May 2009 Available at: www.climateinteractive.org

Process • Break into negotiating blocs • Introduce yourselves to members of your bloc • Complete initial questionnaire • Read Briefing Memo for your bloc

Roles • Developed Nations US, EU, Japan, Russia/FSU/ Eastern Europe, South Korea , Australia/NZ, Canada • Rapidly Developing Nations (Developing A) China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore • Less Developed Nations (Developing B) Small Island Nations and “Least Developed Countries”, representing Other Small Asia, Central/ South America, Middle East, Most of Africa

“I Can Most Identify With…” 1. The island nations, Africa, less-developed Asia and the global lowest income people who deal day to day with the effects of climate change 2. The industrialized nations that struggle with making the biggest changes in their economies, energy infrastructure, and habits of life in order to reduce CO 2 emissions 3. The less-developed nations that have the possibility of raising living standards and addressing widespread poverty at home, and look to the developed world to begin significant emissions reductions.

Welcome Delegates 
 UNFCCC COP15 
 UN Climate Summit

Copenhagen Climate Conference • UNFCCC created at Rio “Earth Summit” conference, 1992 • Commits signatories to take action avoiding “dangerous anthropogenic interference” in the climate system • ≈ 190 signatory nations (“the parties”) • Negotiated Kyoto Accords • Now negotiating towards a post-Kyoto agreement • Failed to reach agreement in Bali, Dec 2007 • COP15 (Copenhagen, December 2009)

Emissions now exceed the IPCC Worst-case Scenario. Fossil Fuel Emissions (GtC/yr) (IPCC Worst-Case)

Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Growth in Atmospheric CO 2 Atmospheric CO 2 1970-79: 1.3 ppm/year Concentration, 2007: Accelerating 1980-89: 1.6 ppm/year 385 ppm 1990-99: 1.5 ppm/year 37% above pre-industrial 2000-07: 2.0 ppm/year 2007: 2.2 ppm/year Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.pdf

Impacts of Projected 5.2 °C 3.5 °C 4.5 ° C 7.4 °C 1.5 ° C IPCC Range IPCC Range 9.4 °F Warming by 2100 8.1 °F 6.3 ° F 2.7 °F 13.3 °F (IPCC AR4) MIT Joint Program on Global Change Study (Sokolov et al. 2009, Journal of Climate) Projected mean temp increase by 2100 under BAU: 5.2 °C ( 9.4 °F ) 90% range: 3.5 – 7.4 °C (6.3 – 13.3 °F)

Our Global Task Manage the Unavoidable and Avoid the Unmanageable

Your Goals • Achieve emissions reduction commitments to stabilize GHG levels by 2100 between 350-450 ppm by 2100 • Agree on a deal to share costs of mitigation and adaptation fund

Developed Nations: 
 Steady Growth in Emissions 12 B 9 B tonsC/year 6 B 3 B Developed 0 1908 1928 1948 1968 1988 2008 Source: CDIAC, WEO, C-ROADS

Developing A Nations: 
 Emissions Rising 12 B 9 B tonsC/year 6 B 3 B Developed 0 1908 1928 1948 1968 1988 2008 Source: CDIAC, WEO, C-ROADS

Developing B Emissions Rising 12 B 9 B tonsC/year 6 B 3 B Developed 0 1908 1928 1948 1968 1988 2008 Source: CDIAC, WEO, C-ROADS

Fossil Fuel and Global Deforestation 12 B 9 B tonsC/year 6 B 3 B Developed 0 1908 1928 1948 1968 1988 2008 Source: CDIAC, WEO, C-ROADS

IPAT Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology Example: CO 2 = Population * Income * Emissions 
 Emissions Capita Dollar 
 Tons = People * $/Year * Tons 
 year Person $

35 World Carbon Emissions 2 /Year 30 From Fossil Fuel Use 25 Billion Tons CO Impact 
 20 15 10 = 
 5 Source: DOE EIA 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 7 World Population 6 Billion Population 
 5 Source: US Census Bureau 4 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 * 
 6000 1990 $/Year/Person 5000 4000 Affluence 
 3000 2000 World Average Income/Person 1000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 * 
 2 /Thousand Real $ 1.5 Carbon Intensity of the Economy 1.0 Technology 0.5 Tons CO Source: DOE EIA 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

50 World Carbon Emissions Billion Tons CO 2 /Year 40 From Fossil Fuel Use Impact 
 30 20 = 
 10 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 10 World Population 9 8 Billion Population 
 7 6 5 Source: US Census Bureau 4 * 
 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 10000 1990 $/Year/Person 8000 Affluence 
 6000 4000 World Average Income/Person 2000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 * 
 Tons CO 2 /Thousand Real $ 1.5 Carbon Intensity of the Economy 1.0 Technology 0.5 Assumes decline at historical average (-1.1%/year) 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Projections to 2050 Population: 2009 2050 Developed 1.35 B 1.55 B (+0.20 B; 15%) Developing A 3.45 B 4.50 B (+1.05 B; 30%) Developing B 1.90 B 2.87 B (+0.97 B; 51%) World Total 6.70 B 8.92 B (+2.22 B; 33%) Source: United Nations

World per Capita Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels 2 /Person/Year 5 4 Metric Tons CO 3 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: DOE/EIA

World per Capita Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels 2 /Person/Year US (-3%) 20 15 Metric Tons CO 10 Europe (-10%) 5 World (+6%) China (+176%) India (+153%) 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: DOE/EIA

Per Capita Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels 2 /Person/Year 5 4 China 3 Metric Tons CO 2 India 1 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: DOE/EIA

Data

Data

Cumulative CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Use Less-Developed Developing Developed

C-ROADS Model Structure User Input (3, 7, or 15 blocs) Other GHGs Total fossil Specific fuel CO 2 Carbon Sea country Climate emissions GHGs Temp cycle Level rise emissions in atm Net CO 2 emissions from forests Deforestation Forests Afforestation User Input

21 st Century Warming Scenarios: 
 AR4 Ensemble of Models IPCC AR4 Fig. SPM.5

C-ROADS Projections 
 compared to AR4 Ensemble 4 * * 3 DegreesC * * * 2 * 1 0 * = C-ROADS IPCC AR4 Fig. SPM.5

C -ROADS Scientific Review Panel • Dr. Robert Watson Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and former chair, IPCC • Mr. Eric Beinhocker McKinsey Global Institute • Dr. Klaus Hasselmann Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie • Dr. David Lane London School of Economics • Dr. Jørgen Randers Norwegian School of Management (BI) • Dr. Stephen Schneider Stanford University • Dr. Bert de Vries Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RIVM

Conclusion of Scientific Review Panel The C-ROADS model • “reproduces the response properties of state-of- the-art three dimensional climate models very well” • “is a sensitivity tool, rather than a tool to provide precise quantitative estimates of projected emissions, CO 2 concentrations, and temperature and sea level responses.” • “Given the model ʼ s capabilities and its close alignment with a range of scenarios published in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC we support its widespread use among policy makers and the general public.”

Business as Usual

Task 1 • Each bloc will set its own fossil fuel emissions targets – You will set: • What year will emissions in your group stop growing (if any)? • (If desired), at what rate will emissions fall? 
 (as a % per year) • Starting in what year? • Developing A and B will set future deforestation – On a scale of 0 to 1, the current level is 1. – Choose 1 to continue BAU deforestation path, 0 to gradually eliminate deforestation over coming decades, or somewhere in the middle.