for Sustainable Development arnulf gruebler@iiasa.ac.at IIT Bombay, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Technological Innovations for Sustainable Development arnulf gruebler@iiasa.ac.at IIT Bombay, January 22, 2018

101 of Technological Change • Technological change is a process involving multiple steps and feedbacks • Uncertainty pervasive at all stages of tech life cycle • Technology = combination of disembodied and embodied knowledge. Embodied TC only via (costly) investments. Learning by technology users AND producers • Technology System = Hardware + Software + “ Orgware ” • Significant costs downstream “R” (research): Development dominates “R&D”, Deployment investments dominate R&DD • “Value” of technology increases downstream also: Value of patent < private RoR < social RoR of innovation RoR = Rate of Return = Return on Investment

The “black box” of Technology Public Sector incentives, funding standards, regulation, subsidies, taxes Learning feedbacks Market / Demand Pull Embodied Disembodied Technology Basic Applied Demon- Niche Technology Diffusion (plant, R&D R&D stration markets (Knowledge) equipment,..) Product / Technology Push investments, knowledge and funding market spillovers Private Sector Source: IPCC AR4, 2007

ETIS – Energy Technology Innovation Systems Grubler, A., F. Aguayo, K. Gallagher, M. Hekkert, K. Jiang, L. Mytelka, L. Neij, G. Nemet and C. Wilson: 2012, Chapter 24 - Policies for the Energy Technology Innovation System (ETIS). In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future , Cambridge University Press, pp. 1665-1744.

ETIS – Innovation Inputs – Outputs - Outcomes

Innovations for Sustainable Development • Equitable access & benefits: Harnessing “granularity” • “Dematerialization”: Digitalization, ITC convergence, sharing economy • Efficiency of resource use • Towards zero emissions • A Roadmap to SD: The Low Energy Demand (LED) Scenario

Access to Technologies & Services (Lorenz Curves) 100 Cumulative percent of global access/owenership Granularity Equity 80 cell phones 2014 radios 2000 60 bicycles 2014 0.77 automobiles 2013 0.43 40 piped water 2012 piped water 2012 0.21 2014 electricity 2005 electricity 2005 20 GDP 0.89 PPP & MER 0.17 broadband 2014 broadband 2014 0.88 0.58 0.11 2000 0 Technologies & 0 20 40 60 80 100 Infrastructures Cumulative percent of global population/households Source: Zimm & Grubler (in preparation)

lumpy large unit size high unit cost indivisible high risk Technology Unit Size granular small unit size low unit cost modular low risk Source: Grubler ESA class material

Granularity Benefits 2 Higher Learning with Smaller Unit Scale After Accounting for Economies of Scale 'De-scaled'� Learning� Rates� (per� doubling� of� cumula ve� numbers� of� units)� 40%� Units)� smaller units y� =� -0.02ln(x)� +� 0.0822� R ² � =� 0.33179� 30%� of� Number� -> more units 20%� (Cumula ve� 10%� -> more 0%� opportunities to Rate� -10%� Learning� experiment -20%� De-scaled� -> more -30%� learning -40%� 1.E-04� 1.E-03� 1.E-02� 1.E-01� 1.E+00� 1.E+01� 1.E+02� 1.E+03� 1.E+04� Average� Unit� Size� (MW)� Healey, S. (2015). Separating Economies of Scale and Learning Effects in Technology Cost Improvements. IR-15-009. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.

Resource Impact of ICT Convergence: ex. Energy Hardware to Software/” Orgware ” Convergence 449 Watt Power consumption = 5 Watt 2.2 Watt 72 Watt Stand-by Source: Grubler et al, 2018 (submitted)

Efficiency Cascade of Resource Use (Production AND Consumption): <10%! Example Energy (all uses, exergy efficiency) and Water (irrigated agriculture & food) Water Crop Food Diet

World – Primary Energy Substitution Modern Energy Carriers Traditional Biomass Δ t = -140 yrs Δ t = -70 yrs Coal Δ t = +140 yrs Δ t = +70 yrs Source: updated (BP, 2016) from www.EnergyPrimer.org

World – Primary Energy Substitution Begin of energy policy focus: Frozen structural change Modern Energy Carriers Traditional Biomass Δ t = -140 yrs Coal Δ t = +140 yrs Δ t = +70 yrs Source: updated (BP, 2016) from www.EnergyPrimer.org

Transitions in Primary Energy Inputs: Fractional Shares C → H → e Frontier : India C 25% : 52% e 30% : 6% 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 India USA USA 0.6 0.5 China India China 0.4 China 0.3 USA 0.2 0.1 India 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Transitions in Energy Outputs (Useful Energy) % UE delivered by C → H → e % Shares of Carbon → Hydrogen → Electrons Frontier : India C 25% : 43% e 30% : 26% 100% 75% USA India USA 50% China China India China India 25% USA 0% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Integration of SDGs via Goal 12 (“Efficiency”) Addresses 12 SDGs Responsible Consumption & Production: End poverty, reduce overconsumption, minimize waste, and environmental impacts

the Low Energy Demand (LED) Scenario quality urbanisation of life granularity decentralised use value service from LED provision services scenario novel end-user energy roles digitalisation rapid services of daily life transformation information outer circle = inner circle = innovation observable drivers additional elements in of long-term change scenario narrative

LED Highlights • Higher levels of energy services than even GEA High • Assuring “decent standards of living” for all (well above access and poverty thresholds) • (technological & service) efficiency driven “Peak” Energy • Lowest demand scenario (<250 EJ FE by 2050) ever published • End-use transformations (efficiency, electrification) drive upstream decarbonization • Stays below 1.5 with no negative emission technologies • Significant SDG synergies (>6 SDGs)

TNT Web Resources Data: - Scenario DBs (with ENE): IIASA GGI, GEA, IPCC-RCPs-SSPs ….. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ggi/GgiDb ..http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb - Energy & CO2 inventories & uncertainties …... http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Publications/Energy_Carbon_DataBase - Historical energy & development http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/TransitionstoNewTechnologies/PFUDB.en.html - Historical technology data http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~gruebler/data.htm http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Publications/Scaling_Dynamics_of_Energy_Technologies Innovation Case Studies: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/TransitionstoNewTechnologies/CaseStudy_home.en.html Models: - LSM Technological Growth & Substitution http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/TNT/WEB/Software/LSM2