Five-Year Forecast Greg Grootendorst, Chief Economist, Hampton Roads Planning District Commission Farrell Hanzaker, Chief Financial Officer, Virginia Beach Schools David Bradley, Director of Budget and Management Services
Hampton Roads Economic Briefing Presented to the Virginia Beach City Council Greg Grootendorst Chief Economist, HRPDC November 20, 2018
U.S. Gross Domestic Product 19,000 Current Value: $18.7 Trillion 18,500 Prerecession High: 18,000 $15.8 Trillion 17,500 Billions of Dollars (2009) 17,000 Recession Low: 16,500 $15.1 Trillion 16,000 15,500 GDP is up 23.8 % from the 15,000 recession low 14,500 14,000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
U.S. Non-Farm Civilian Employment 155,000 Prerecession High: Current Value: 150,000 138,432,000 149,750,000 145,000 Recession Low: Thousands of Employees 140,000 129,733,000 135,000 130,000 Payroll employment has grown steadily 125,000 at an annualized rate of 1.7 % since the 120,000 recession low. 115,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
U.S. Unemployment Rate 12% Recession High: Prerecession Low: 10.0% 4.4% 10% 8% Current Value: 3.7% Unemployment Rate 6% 4% The unemployment rate has been reduced by over half since 2% the height of the recession and is now well below re-recession levels. 0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
S&P 500 Stock Market Index 3,500 Prerecession High: Current Value: 1,549.4 2,722.2 3,000 2,500 Recession Low: 735.1 Index Value 2,000 1,500 1,000 The S&P stock market index is 270% from the pre-recession low, and up 76% 500 from the pre-recession high 0 Source: Yahoo Finance and HRPDC
Employment Decline and Recovery 10% U.S. Virginia Hampton Roads 8% Percent Job Loss Relative to Peak 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Months Since Peak Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
Hampton Roads Gross Product $90 $83.6B $81.8B $85 -2.1% $80 Billions of 2009 Dollars $75 $70 $65 $60 Non- Zero $55 Axis $50 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and HRPDC
Annualized Growth in Gross Product (Inflation-Adjusted) 9% 8% Annualized Change in Gross Product 7% 6% 5% Hampton Roads: 0.8% 4% (2014 - 2017) 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Metropolitan Areas with Population between 1 and 4 Million Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and HRPDC
Nonfarm Civilian Employment (Jobs) in Hampton Roads 800 781,600 790 Jul, 2007 Seasonally Adjusted Payrolls, Thousands 780 770 785,400 760 Sep, 2018 750 740 730 733,800 720 Feb, 2010 710 700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
Hampton Roads Employment Change August ‘08 – August ‘18 Healthcare & Social Federal Government Scientific & Technical Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Management Education Services Transportation & Utilities Finance & Insurance State Government Administrative & Support Retail Trade Manufacturing Real Estate & Leasing Wholesale Trade Information Construction Local Government Change in Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
Hampton Roads Employment Change August ‘17 – August ‘18 Scientific & Technical Manufacturing Administrative & Support Leisure & Hospitality Management Retail Trade Transportation & Utilities Other Services Construction State Government Wholesale Trade Finance & Insurance Information Federal Government Real Estate & Leasing Education Services Local Government Healthcare & Social Change in Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted 12% U.S. Hampton Roads Virginia 10% Unemployment Rate 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
Relative Per Capita Income 110% Share of US PCI Share of Virginia PCI Ratio of Hampton Roads PCI to U.S. & Virginia 105% 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 105% 92% 96% 75% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and HRPDC
Median Family Incomes $90,000 Hampton Roads U.S. $80,000 $70,000 Income in 2017 Dollars $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC
Annualized Real Defense Outlays (U.S. Quarterly Data, Seasonally Adjusted) $1,000 War on Terror $900 Billions of Real Dollars (2017 $'s) 80's Cold $800 War Vietnam Buildup $700 War Korean $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
Military Personnel in HR and the U.S. 160,000 4,000,000 Hampton Roads U.S. 140,000 3,500,000 Hampton Roads Military Personnel 120,000 3,000,000 100,000 2,500,000 U.S. Military Personnel 80,000 2,000,000 60,000 1,500,000 40,000 1,000,000 20,000 500,000 0 0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
Defense Contracts in Hampton Roads (Inflation-Adjusted) $12,000 $10,000 Millions of 2016 Dollars $8,000 (5-Year Moving Average) $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Fiscal Year Source: USAspending.gov and HRPDC
General Cargo in Hampton Roads 25 Exports Imports 20 Containers: Millions of Short Tons 15 Ships: 10 Share: 5 0 Source: Port of Virginia and HRPDC
Tourism Expenditures in HR (Inflation-Adjusted) $6.0 13.2% $5.0 Billions of 2017 Dollars $4.0 $3.0 Hotel Revenue: Employment: $2.0 Down 2.9% Up 6.6% in 10 Years in 10 years $1.0 $0.0 Source: Virginia Tourism Corporation and HRPDC
Hampton Roads Retail Sales $2.2 Billions of Dollars of Sales +11.8% (Seasonally Adjusted) $2.0 +28.0% $1.8 -12.7% $1.6 Annualized growth rate of 1.2% since 2006 $1.4 Inflation adjusted annualized growth rate of -1.1% since 2006 $1.2 Source: Virginia Department of Taxation and HRPDC
Home Price Indexes 30% 25% Hampton Roads Year-over-Year Growth in HPI 20% Virginia 15% U.S. 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: Fair Housing Finance Agency and HRPDC
NAHB/Wells Fargo Hampton Roads Housing Opportunity Index 100 90 (% of Homes Sold Affordable to a Median 80 Housing Opportunity Index 70 60 Income Family) 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: National Association of Homebuilders and HRPDC
Hampton Roads Population 2,000,000 2017 -- 1,729,326 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1960 -- 927,854 1,200,000 Population 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 1.8% 0.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0 1.8% Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and HRPDC
Hampton Roads Population Histogram 85 years and over (Greatest) 80 to 84 years Silent 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years Boomers Age Categories 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years Gen X 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years Millen 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 1.8% 0.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% Females 5 to 9 years Next.. Males Under 5 years 1.8% 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC
Graduation Rates 100% 90% 80% 4 Year Graduation Rate 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Hampton Roads 20% Virginia Graduation Rate 10% Virginia Graduation Rate- Cohort 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008* 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* * Dates are Graduation Rates Calculated Using the Cohort Method Source: Virginia Department of Education and HRPDC
Per Pupil School Spending (Inflation-Adjusted) $14,000 Hampton Roads Virginia Forecast $12,000 $10,000 2017 Dollars Per Pupil $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Virginia Department of Education, Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
Education Hampton Roads U.S. Average Highschool Equivalence 91.5% 88.0% College Attainment 32.1% 32.0% Graduate or Professional Degree 12.3% 12.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC
Government Finances 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: Auditor of Public Accounts and HRPDC
Quality of Life in Hampton Roads Hampton Roads vs. United States Violent Crime 86% 87% Poverty Rate 89% Ozone Levels Source: Auditor of Public Accounts and HRPDC
2017 American Community Survey Data for Hampton Roads HR Rank in the Comparable Metro Areas Highest Value Lowest Value % of Labor Force in the 1 1 39 8.3 % Armed Forces % Who Worked Outside 3 39 1 45.9% County of Residence % of Population that Moved 4 1 39 18.3% in the Past Year 1 22 $32,493 Per Capita Income 39 % of People Who Have a 1 39 27 32.1% Bachelor's Degree 1 32 39 36.1 Median Age Gini Coefficient (Measure of 35 .45 1 39 Income Equality)
Virginia Beach Population Histogram 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years Female 5 to 9 years Male Under 5 years 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC
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