EUROSKEPTICISM IN TURKEY DOUBTS, ANXIETIES AND FEARS OF THE TURKISH PUBLIC CONCERNING EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION Open Society Institute Bo ğ aziçi University Research Fund July 2003-July 2004
Project Director: Dr. Hakan Y ı lmaz Assoc. Prof., Bo ğ aziçi University Department of Political Science & Center for European Studies yilmazh@boun.edu.tr Project Assistants: Nazan Maksudyan (Sabanc ı University) and Zeynep Özgen (Bo ğ aziçi University) Field Survey Conducted By: Infakto Research Workshop Consultants: Dr. Emre Erdo ğ an, Güçlü At ı lgan
Methodological Remarks � Field Survey Conducted: 17 October-10 November, 2003 � Sample Structure: An nationally distributed,multi- layered, random sample of 2123 people, age 18 and above. � Interviewees were selected from 17 provinces and the three big metropolitan areas ( İ stanbul, Ankara, İ zmir). � 68 percent of the interviews were conducted in the urban areas and 32% in the rural areas. 23.12.2003 3
Regional and Provincial Distribution of the Interviewees REGION PROVINCE NUMBER OF INTERVIEWS MEDITERRANEAN ANTALYA 137 ADANA 125 KAHRAMANMARA Ş 48 EASTERN ANATOLIA ERZURUM 98 MALATYA 86 AEGEAN DEN İ ZL İ 169 AFYON 27 SOUTHEASTERN ANATOLIA D İ YARBAKIR 143 GAZ İ ANTEP 47 CENTRAL ANATOLIA KONYA 138 N İĞ DE 86 ÇANKIRI 58 BLACK SEA SAMSUN 69 KASTAMONU 68 TRABZON 46 MARMARA BURSA 166 TEK İ RDA Ğ 82 İ STANBUL İ STANBUL 301 ANKARA ANKARA 131 İ ZM İ R İ ZM İ R 98 23.12.2003 4
SECTION 1 GENERAL ATTITUDES GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS TURKEY’ ’S S TOWARDS TURKEY MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU
If there were to be a referendum on Turkey's membership in the EU today, would you vote for or against it? No Answer/No Opinion; 8% I would vote AGAINST Turkey's membership in the EU; 17% I would vote FOR Turkey's membership in the EU; 75% 23.12.2003 6
If there were to be a referendum today on Turkey's membership in the EU, would you vote for or against it? (Party voters in the November 2002 elections) 15.8 SP-Felicity Party -- Radical Right, Islamist 26.3 57.9 MHP-Nationalist Action Party -- Radical Right, Moderate 2.1 37.2 Secularist, Turkish Ethnonationalist 60.6 5.1 GP-Young Party -- Center Right, Moderate Secularist, Nationalist 25.3 69.6 AKP-Justice and Development Party -- Center Right, Pro-Islamic, 11.4 17.9 Conservative 70.7 8.3 NATIONAL AVERAGE 17.3 74.4 DYP-True Path Party -- Center Right, Moderate Secularist, 6.5 14.5 Nationalist 79.0 DEHAP- Democratic People's Party -- Radical Left, Kurdish 9.8 5.9 Ethnonationalist 84.3 3.5 CHP-Republican People's Party -- Center Left, Kemalist Secularist 10.6 85.8 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 FOR AGAINST NO ANSWER/NO OPINION 23.12.2003 7
If there were to be a referendum on Turkey's membership in the EU today, would you vote for or against it? (Kurdish and Turkish Speakers) Those who use the KURDISH 78.2 11.5 10.3 language in daily conversations Those who use ONLY TURKISH 72.6 21 6.4 in daily conversations 74.4 17.3 8.3 NATIONAL AVERAGE 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 FOR AGAINST NO ANSWER/NO OPINION 23.12.2003 8
What do you think would be Turkey's most important benefit of becoming a member of the EU? Others Decreasing bribery and 7% corruption 8% Economic Benefits (Rising economic growth rates, falling Equal and just treatment of the rates of inflation and citizens by the state unemployment) 9% 39% Turkey's rising power and prestige in the international arena 12% Deepening and strengthening Freedom of movement in the of democracy EU 12% 13% 23.12.2003 9
When do you think Turkey could become a member of the EU? Very Optimistic: Within the No Answer/No Opinion Next Five Years 17% 18% Very Pessimistic: Never 18% Optimistic: Within the Next Ten Years 25% Pessimistic: Not in My Life Time 22% 23.12.2003 10
SECTION 2 THE INTERPLAY OF THE INTERPLAY OF NATIONAL- -LOCAL AND LOCAL AND NATIONAL EUROPEAN IDENTITIES EUROPEAN IDENTITIES
Turkey IS a part of Europe... 70.0 60.2 60.0 52.1 50.0 40.0 30.0 24.5 24.1 20.0 10.0 6.8 0.0 Geographically Historically Economically Culturally Religiously 23.12.2003 12
When you think of the near future, which of the following self- identifications do you think will be most appropriate for you? 60.0 54.2 50.0 39.3 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 National Self-Identification only Self-Identification with a European component in it 23.12.2003 13
As a citizen of Turkey, which of the following regions of the world do you feel you most belong to? No Answer/No Opinion; 19% EAST (Asia+Middle East); 40% WEST (Europe+ Mediterranean+ Balkan); 41% 23.12.2003 14
SECTION 3 BASIC TYPES OF ANXIETY BASIC TYPES OF ANXIETY CONCERNING EUROPE AND THE CONCERNING EUROPE AND THE EUROPEAN UNION EUROPEAN UNION EXCLUSION ANXIETY: BEING EXCLUDED, AVOIDED, PUT OFF BY THE EUROPEANS HISTORICAL ANXIETY: STEMMING FROM THE HISTORICAL MEMORY (THE TANZIMAT AND SEVRES SYNDROMES) SOVEREIGNTY ANXIETY: LOSING NATIONAL INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY RELIGIOUS ANXIETY: IS THE EU A “CHRISTIAN CLUB”? SEPARATISM ANXIETY: THR RISK OF THE BREAKDOWN OF NATIONAL UNITY MORAL ANXIETY: EROSION OF TRADITIONAL VALUES
SECTION 3A EXCLUSION ANXIETY: EXCLUSION ANXIETY: BEING EXCLUDED, AVOIDED, BEING EXCLUDED, AVOIDED, PUT OFF BY THE EUROPEANS PUT OFF BY THE EUROPEANS
Some people say that the EU has treated Turkey with double standards, by imposing on Turkey conditions that she has not imposed on the other candidate countries. Dou you agree with this view? 70.0 61.8 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 19.9 18.4 20.0 10.0 0.0 YES, I agree (completely NO, I disagree (completely No Answer/No Opinion agree+somewhat agree) disagree+somewhat disagree) 23.12.2003 17
On the issue of Turkey's relations with the EU, which of the following opinions is closest to yours? 60.0 49.7 50.0 39.8 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.4 10.0 0.0 The EU will not accept Turkey as a The EU will accept Turkey as a member, No answer/No Opinion member, even if Turkey satisfies all the if Turkey satisfies the necessary necessary conditions conditions 23.12.2003 18
SECTION 3B HISTORICAL ANXIETIES: HISTORICAL ANXIETIES: STEMMING FROM THE STEMMING FROM THE HISTORICAL MEMORY, HISTORICAL MEMORY, THE TANZIMAT AND SEVRES THE TANZIMAT AND SEVRES SYNDROMES SYNDROMES
Some people say that the conditions that the EU has imposed on Turkey are no different from the CAPITULATIONS of the Ottoman era. Dou you agree with this view? 45.0 40.9 40.0 35.0 32.2 30.0 27.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 YES, I agree (completely NO, I disagree (completely No Answer/No Opinion agree+somewhat agree) disagree+somewhat disagree) 23.12.2003 20
Some people say that the conditions that the EU has imposed on Turkey are no different from the terms of the SEVRES TREATY of the Ottoman era. Dou you agree with this view? 40.0 37.3 36.0 35.0 30.0 26.7 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 YES, I agree (completely NO, I disagree (completely No Answer/No Opinion agree+somewhat agree) disagree+somewhat disagree) 23.12.2003 21
SECTION 3C SOVEREIGNTY ANXIETY: SOVEREIGNTY ANXIETY: THE WEAKENING OF THE THE WEAKENING OF THE NATIONAL INDEPENDENCE AND NATIONAL INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY SOVEREIGNTY
Some people say that if Turkey does everything the EU asks her to do, this will bring the Turkish state to an end. Dou you agree with this view? 60.0 53.1 50.0 40.0 35.8 30.0 20.0 11.1 10.0 0.0 YES, I agree (completely NO, I disagree (completely No Answer/No Opinion agree+somewhat agree) disagree+somewhat disagree) 23.12.2003 23
Will you feel disturbed if you see the EU flag hanging next to the Turkish flag in front of the schools, government buildings, and the like? 70.0 59.0 60.0 50.0 37.6 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 3.9 0.0 YES, I will be disturbed (very much + a NO, I will NOT be disturbed (not at all + No Answer/No Opinion little) not so much) 23.12.2003 24
Will you feel disturbed if you hear the EU anthem being played beside the Turkish national anthem in the national days, commencement ceremonies of the schools, and the like? 70.0 66.2 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.4 30.0 20.0 10.0 3.3 0.0 YES, I will be disturbed (very much + a NO, I will NOT be disturbed (not at all + No Answer/No Opinion little) not so much) 23.12.2003 25
SECTION 3D RELIGIOUS ANXIETY: RELIGIOUS ANXIETY: IS THE EU A “ “CHRISTIAN CLUB CHRISTIAN CLUB” ”? ? IS THE EU A
Some people say the EU has been founded on Christian values. Dou you agree with this view? 60.0 56.1 50.0 40.0 30.2 30.0 20.0 13.7 10.0 0.0 YES, I agree (completely NO, I disagree (completely No Answer/No Opinion agree+somewhat agree) disagree+somewhat disagree) 23.12.2003 27
Some people say that the EU is a "Christian Club" with no place for a Muslim country like Turkey. Dou you agree with this view? 50.0 45.3 45.0 39.8 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 14.9 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 YES, I agree (completely NO, I disagree (completely No Answer/No Opinion agree+somewhat agree) disagree+somewhat disagree) 23.12.2003 28
SECTION 3E SEPARATISM ANXIETY: THE RISK OF THE BREAKDOWN OF NATIONAL UNITY
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