Regional Deindustrialization in Turkey Burhan Can Karahasan Piri - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Introduction (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Regional disparities and mobility Empirical Analyses Conclusion Regional Deindustrialization in Turkey Burhan Can Karahasan Piri Reis University, Istanbul Turkey UNU-WIDER & ESCAP Transforming for Better Jobs 11-14 September, Bangkok B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 1 / 31

Introduction Motivation (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Objective Regional disparities and mobility Literature Empirical Analyses Hypothesis Conclusion Motivation Path of industrial production is linked with development (Kaldorian setting: Dasgupta, Singh, 2007) Global trends show declining trends in manufacturing production: aspects among developed and developing countries can not be identical (Rodrik, 2016) Turkey realizes continuous declines in manufacturing production Regional disparities has been densely investigated in Turkey, but not from industrial point of view B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 2 / 31

Introduction Motivation (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Objective Regional disparities and mobility Literature Empirical Analyses Hypothesis Conclusion Motivation Path of industrial production is linked with development (Kaldorian setting: Dasgupta, Singh, 2007) Global trends show declining trends in manufacturing production: aspects among developed and developing countries can not be identical (Rodrik, 2016) Turkey realizes continuous declines in manufacturing production Regional disparities has been densely investigated in Turkey, but not from industrial point of view B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 2 / 31

Introduction Motivation (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Objective Regional disparities and mobility Literature Empirical Analyses Hypothesis Conclusion Objective Observing the spatiality of industrial production in Turkey construction of a historical data set evaluating the spatial pattern of industrial production Assessing the impact of industrial production Markov Chains Conditional analyses of Markov Chains Spatial analyses of Markov Chains B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 3 / 31

Introduction Motivation (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Objective Regional disparities and mobility Literature Empirical Analyses Hypothesis Conclusion Objective Observing the spatiality of industrial production in Turkey construction of a historical data set evaluating the spatial pattern of industrial production Assessing the impact of industrial production Markov Chains Conditional analyses of Markov Chains Spatial analyses of Markov Chains B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 3 / 31

Introduction Motivation (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Objective Regional disparities and mobility Literature Empirical Analyses Hypothesis Conclusion Prior Literature On the side of regional dimension of deindustrialization: Dogruels (various years), Mecik, Aytun (2018) On the side of regional disparities: Filiztekin (1998), Dogruel and Dogruel (2003) On the side of spatial battery: Gezici and Hewings (2004, 2007), Karahasan and Bilgel (2018) B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 4 / 31

Introduction Motivation (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Objective Regional disparities and mobility Literature Empirical Analyses Hypothesis Conclusion Central Hypotheses ( H 1 ) National trends in manufacturing will have inevitable reflections at spatial level. ( H 2 ) Regions that are manufacturing intensive will have better economic performance in terms of regional growth. B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 5 / 31

Introduction Motivation (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Objective Regional disparities and mobility Literature Empirical Analyses Hypothesis Conclusion Central Hypotheses ( H 1 ) National trends in manufacturing will have inevitable reflections at spatial level. ( H 2 ) Regions that are manufacturing intensive will have better economic performance in terms of regional growth. B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 5 / 31

Introduction (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Data Regional disparities and mobility National trends Empirical Analyses Regional trends Conclusion Data at national and regional level National Level Data National data set is from TurkStat covers 1923-2018 (for VA), 1988-2018 (for employment) Regional Level Data Regional data set is from TurkStat covers 26 NUTS II regions for the 1980-2015. B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 6 / 31

Introduction (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Data Regional disparities and mobility National trends Empirical Analyses Regional trends Conclusion Data at national and regional level National Level Data National data set is from TurkStat covers 1923-2018 (for VA), 1988-2018 (for employment) Regional Level Data Regional data set is from TurkStat covers 26 NUTS II regions for the 1980-2015. B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 6 / 31

Introduction (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Data Regional disparities and mobility National trends Empirical Analyses Regional trends Conclusion Path of Industrial Production (VA % GDP) 25 20 15 10 1923 1935 1947 1959 1971 1983 1995 2007 2019 Manufacturing (%GDP) 1948 Base year Manufacturing (%GDP) 1968 Base year Manufacturing (%GDP) 1987 Base year Manufacturing (%GDP) 1998 Base year Manufacturing (%GDP) 2009 Base year B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 7 / 31

Introduction (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Data Regional disparities and mobility National trends Empirical Analyses Regional trends Conclusion Path of Industrial Production (Employment %total) .2 28 Share of manufacturing employment 26 Employment (in millions) .18 24 22 .16 20 .14 18 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 Share of Manufactruring Employment Total Employment B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 8 / 31

Introduction (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Data Regional disparities and mobility National trends Empirical Analyses Regional trends Conclusion Path of Industrial Production (Employment %total) 1980 1990 .05 − .31 .04 − .31 .02 − .05 .02 − .04 .01 − .02 .01 − .02 0 − .01 0 − .01 2000 2015 .04 − .27 .04 − .29 .02 − .04 .025 − .04 .01 − .02 .01 − .025 0 − .01 0 − .01 B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 9 / 31

Introduction (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Data Regional disparities and mobility Distribution of Per capita GDP Empirical Analyses Distribution of Unemployment Conclusion Data on regional development Per capita GDP A harmonization has been carried out in order to combine three separate sources Ozotun (1980, 1986): 1975-1987 (NUTS III) TurkStat (2001): 1987-2001 (NUTS III) TurkStat (2018): 2004-2017 (NUTS III) Data set : 1980-2015 at NUTS II level B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 10 / 31

Introduction (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Data Regional disparities and mobility Distribution of Per capita GDP Empirical Analyses Distribution of Unemployment Conclusion Spatial distribution of per capita GDP 1980 1990 7817.211 − 12971.47 10264.14 − 15023.36 5527.884 − 7817.211 7108.593 − 10264.14 4072.657 − 5527.884 5262.562 − 7108.593 2095.392 − 4072.657 2473.501 − 5262.562 2000 2015 12045.23 − 19405.2 19974.7 − 32024.74 8322.321 − 12045.23 14373.63 − 19974.7 6817.377 − 8322.321 12456.66 − 14373.63 3614.579 − 6817.377 7641.314 − 12456.66 B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 11 / 31

Introduction (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Data Regional disparities and mobility Distribution of Per capita GDP Empirical Analyses Distribution of Unemployment Conclusion Spatial distribution of unemployment 1985 1990 5.7 − 8.22 6.3 − 9.68 4.295 − 5.7 4.98 − 6.3 3.23 − 4.295 4.05 − 4.98 2.13 − 3.23 2.69 − 4.05 2000 2015 10.8 − 14.36 10.1 − 24.8 8.015 − 10.8 8.75 − 10.1 6.12 − 8.015 6.5 − 8.75 4.54 − 6.12 3.9 − 6.5 B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 12 / 31

Introduction Exploratory Analyses (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Markov Chains Analyses Regional disparities and mobility Conditional Markov Chain Analyses Empirical Analyses Results Conclusion Methodology I: Exploratory Analyses Theil Index: Locality of Inequalities n n � y i � � � T = y i log + Y g T g (1) x i i = 1 g = 1 Moran’s I: Spatial Dependence � i w ij ( y i − ¯ y )( y j − ¯ I = n y ) (2) � ( y i − ¯ y ) 2 s LISA: Spatial Heterogeneity � I i = ( x i − ¯ w ij ( x j − ¯ x ) x ) (3) j B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 13 / 31

Introduction Exploratory Analyses (De)Industrialization trends in Turkey Markov Chains Analyses Regional disparities and mobility Conditional Markov Chain Analyses Empirical Analyses Results Conclusion Between-within Inequalities .8 .6 .4 .2 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year Theil’s Index Theil between Theil within B.C. Karahasan Regional Deindustrialization 14 / 31