EU Market Situation for Poultry Committee for the Common Organisation of the Agricultural Markets 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N Change in Poultry Meat Production in % 2017/2016 (up to December) 17% 11.8% 11.2% 12% 7.3% 6.3% 5.1% 7% 4.6% 4.5% 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 2% -0.2% -0.8% -1.1% -3% -2.4% -2.9% -3.3% Source= Eurostat -4.2% -4.5% -8% LV DK SI LT CY IE PT RO PL FI UK CZ AT ES EL HR BE SE NL DE FR BG IT SK MT HU EU EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N NEW PARAMETERS Chicks hatched for fattening (1 000 pieces) 2015 2016 2017 2018 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N NEW PARAMETERS Production forecast of broiler (In tonnes) 2016 2017 2018 1 000 000 900 000 800 000 700 000 600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N NEW PARAMETERS New parameters for the calculation of the estimated production of broilers BE BG CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR HR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK Parameter National Average Live 2.40 2.10 1.90 2.10 2.11 2.39 2.40 2.66 2.02 1.99 2.04 2.60 2.64 2.10 2.44 2.40 2.33 2.55 2.23 1.83 2.44 1.85 2.20 2.20 2.12 2.34 1.91 2.23 weight (kg) at Slaughter National Average Carcass 68% 73.0% 74.0% 75.0% 70.0% 71.0% 75.0% 70.2% 67.0% 69.4% 71.7% 70.1% 77.0% 74.4% 75.1% 68% 70.1% 74.0% 66.0% 75.0% 69.9% 72.4% 70.5% 72.5% 72.5% 75.0% 69.0% yield (%) 3.0- 3.5% 2,5% National Average 2.0% 4.3% 4.0% 2.5% (l.w) - 6.0% 5.2% 4.2% 3.7% 2.9% 5.0% 3.2% 3.3% 5.0% 2.0% 4.2% 6.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.2% 2.6% 2.5% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 4.8% Mortality (%) 4.0% 3,0% (h.w.) National Average Period 30 - 40.0 51* 35.0 35.0 37 - 40 45.0 43.5 37.7 35.0 36.9 35/46 47.4 37.1 40.0 40.0 41.5 45.0 41.0 35.00 42.0 37.8 41.0 37.7 38.5 37.0 42.0 of rearing (days) 38 EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N Euro – US Dollar exchange rate 1.6 16/03/2018: 1 EUR = 1.23 USD 1.4 1.2 1.0 Exchange rate: Spot, ECB reference - U.S. Dollar/Euro 0.8 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 01/15 01/16 01/17 01/18 EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R O D U C T I O N Euro – Argentine Peso and Brazilian Real exchange rate 26.0 16/03/2018: 1 EUR = 25.04 ARS = 4.05 BRL 24.0 22.0 Exchange rate: ARG Peso/Euro, Spot, ECB reference and local market quotes 20.0 Exchange rate: BRA Real/Euro, Spot, ECB reference 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
C e r e a l P r i c e s World cereal prices ($/t) 300 280 260 240 Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 216 $ / tonne Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 208 220 Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 208 200 Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 207 Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 195 180 Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 190 160 140 EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
C e r e a l P r i c e s US CME SRW wheat futures 200 220 400 260 Last 14 days Daily volume Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes) Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tonnes) MAY 2018 (R) 350 240 SEP 2018 (R) 210 150 300 MAY 2019 (R) 220 201 250 200 200 $/t 100 $/t 200 180 190 150 184 160 50 100 180 140 50 Chicago (CME) SRW futures Chicago (CME) SRW futures 172 0 170 0 120 03/03/18 07/03/18 11/03/18 15/03/18 07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18 EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
C e r e a l P r i c e s CME maize futures 600 170 1 120 250 Daily volume Last 14 days MAY 2018 (R) Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tonnes) Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tonnes) SEP 2018 (R) 960 225 MAY 2019 (R) 450 165 800 163 200 640 $/t $/t 300 160 175 480 150 156 320 150 155 125 160 Chicago (CME) Maize futures Chicago (CME) Maize futures 151 0 100 0 150 12/14 06/15 12/15 06/16 12/16 06/17 12/17 03/03/18 07/03/18 11/03/18 15/03/18 EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
C e r e a l P r i c e s CME soya futures 900 400 300 400 Last 14 days Daily volume MAY 2018 (R) 390 Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 t) 800 Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 t) JUL 2018 (R) AUG 2018 (R) 380 395 700 MAY 2019 (R) 370 600 200 360 390 500 390 $/t $/t 350 390 400 386 340 385 300 100 330 381 200 320 380 100 310 Chicago (CME) soybeans futures Chicago (CME) soybeans futures 0 300 0 375 03/03/18 10/03/18 11/14 05/15 11/15 05/16 11/16 05/17 11/17 EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
C e r e a l P r i c e s Soyameal world quotations $/ton 600 Brazil Paranagua 401.0 432.0 449.0 US Gulf 550 Argentina Up River 500 Source: IGC 450 $/ton 400 350 300 250 Jun-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 May-16 Aug-16 May-17 Aug-17 EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
P R I C E S E V O L U T I O N S I N C E EU W E E K P R I C E S 11 195 last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR 190 Prices € / 100 kg 185 180 BROILER 184.38 + 3.0% + 0.8% - 0.6% 175 € /100 kg carcase weight 170 EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
E U E V O L U T I O N P R I C E S B R O I L E R Evolution of the weekly EU average price for Broiler Latest price ==> 184.38 EUR/100 kg Evolution compared same period last year (Week 11) : + 3.0% 205 195 € uro/ 100kg 185 175 165 Avg. 2013-17 2017 2018 Source:MSs notifications (Commission Implementing Regulation (EC) 2017/1185) EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
E U E V O L U T I O N P R I C E S B R O I L E R Broiler prices in EU, USA and Brazil 230 79.72 184.38 155.79 210 190 170 In € uro/100 kg 150 130 110 90 70 50 Sources : EU = weighted average of MS prices - Broiler 65% US = weekly USDA prices - Fresh chicken grade A ,Chicago EU US BR BR = average of prices in main producing states - (Aveworld.com.br) EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
E U I M P O R T S T R A D E B r o i l e r P r o d u c t s Imports of Poultry meat from selected origins 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-janv 18 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-janv 17 Thailand 251 185 29.7% 274 524 31.4% 290 309 32.2% 265 738 32.9% 26 988 38.6% + 14% Brazil 507 355 60.0% 501 327 57.3% 504 796 56.0% 401 465 49.7% 24 862 35.6% - 46% Ukraine 19 958 2.4% 42 513 4.9% 48 083 5.3% 80 083 9.9% 8 694 12.4% +++ Chile 25 815 3.1% 22 232 2.5% 28 808 3.2% 24 973 3.1% 4 584 6.6% + 26% China 19 761 2.3% 18 403 2.1% 16 946 1.9% 19 203 2.4% 1 938 2.8% + 14% Turkey 16 0.0% 441 0.0% 173 0.0% 1 479 2.1% +++ Argentina 10 996 1.3% 8 529 1.0% 6 463 0.7% 6 300 0.8% 834 1.2% + 9% Switzerland 4 307 0.5% 2 424 0.3% 2 548 0.3% 2 752 0.3% 242 0.3% + 65% Others 6 351 0.8% 4 984 0.6% 3 656 0.4% 6 616 0.8% 242 0.3% #N/A Extra-EU 845 743 874 937 902 051 807 303 69 862 % change + 3.5% + 3.1% - 10.5% - 9.7% EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
E U I M P O R T S T R A D E B r o i l e r EU Poultry meat Imports EU IMPORTS of Poultry Meat (Millions EUR) EU IMPORTS of Poultry Meat (TONNES cwe) 250 90 000 77 408 80 345 203 80 000 200 69 862 1 527 200 179 199 70 000 60 000 8 694 150 TONNES cw Millions EUR 85 44 309 50 000 97 46 249 54 40 000 24 862 100 30 000 20 000 50 98 88 83 28 758 26 988 23 752 10 000 0 0 Jan-janv 16 Jan-janv 17 Jan-janv 18 Jan-janv 16 Jan-janv 17 Jan-janv 18 Thailand Brazil Ukraine Chile China Other origins Thailand Brazil Ukraine Chile China Other origins EU market situation for Poultry 22 March 2018
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