EU-China: A Dual Track Relationship Raffaello Pantucci Visiting Scholar Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS)
Raffaello Pantucci Science and Technology Fellowship Programme China http://www.euchinastf.eu/ “EU-China: A Strategic Partnership in Practice” International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS, www.iiss.org) European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR, www.ecfr.eu)
Strategic Partnership What the EU hears: “We are partners to do things together on the world stage” What China hears: “We are very good friends”
Relations established 1976
Tiananmen
Friends again…. 2004 bilateral trade total €177.1 billion 5.1% of Europe’s total exports; 12.5% of China’s exports Arms embargo on the table to maybe be lifted Decision to allow China to invest in the Galileo program
Why Not Lift? Strange that the EU should sanction its biggest trading partner – listing it alongside Belarus, Sudan, Zimbabwe Post-Iraq transatlantic tensions Push towards a multipolar world Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schroeder Sino-philic leaders For China: greater recognition on the international stage
Because Lots of Problems…. No consensus in Europe: France/Germany for, UK/Netherlands against Strong disagreement from European Parliament and some national Parliaments, like Bundestag Primacy of transatlantic partnership March 2005, Chinese anti-secession law Bad communication with Beijing
Sarko Lama
Perfide France! French pro-Tibet protestors attack Olympic torch as passing through country Dalai Lama made honorary citizen of France Sarkozy meets Dalai Lama while holding Presidency of the EU “An SMS away from protests on the scale of anti- Japanese protests in 2005”
EU Trade with China 2006- 2010
Converging or Diverging Tracks?
Naughty Norway Wake of Nobel Peace Prize suspended political interactions Made visas difficult to obtain Suspended FTA discussions Blocked Salmon imports But continued to work with Norway on energy deals – with Chinese companies working in Norway and vice versa
Paying a Visit: The Dalai Lama Effect on International Trade “Our empirical results support the idea that countries officially receiving the Dalai Lama at the highest political level are punished through a reduction of their exports to China. However, this ‘Dalai Lama Effect’ is only observed for the Hu Jintao era and not for earlier periods. Furthermore, we find that this effect is mainly driven by reduced exports of machinery and transport equipment and that it disappears two years after a meeting took place.” Andreas Fuchs and Nils-Hendrik Klann, Georg-August- Univeritat Gottingen
A Shattering Union
Euro-difficulties Weak leadership in Brussels Unclear who is really winning post-Libson Treaty – EP accrues more power Arab Spring and subsequent migration showed tensions with Schengen free movement Franco-British led Libya intervention showed limits of CFSP Euro crisis showing limits of common currency When trying to attract Foreign Investment (FDI), it goes to member states rather than the Union
China Buying Europe? "We can't just go save someone. We're not saviors. We have to save ourselves” Gao Xiqing, President, China Investment Corp. “Since last year, China has purchased bonds of several European countries, trying to save nations deep in a debt crisis. By contrast, it is a pity that the EU side shows no sincerity on the issue of recognising China's market economy status” Xinhua
No European Cohesion “I do not particularly blame China. If this sort of thing works, you cannot be surprised when countries pursue it” Lord Patten, Stars and Dragons: The EU and China
Thanks! 谢谢 ! Raffaello Pantucci rpantucci@gmail.com http://www.raffaellopantucci.com
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