Estimating Population and Health Quantities and their Uncertainty - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Estimating Population and Health Quantities and their Uncertainty from Data of Limited Quality Adrian E. Raftery University of Washington http://www.stat.washington.edu/raftery Joint work with Leontine Alkema, Samuel Clark, Patrick Gerland and Mark Wheldon In collaboration with the UN Population Division Supported by NICHD UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base for the Post-2015 Development Agenda New York October 6, 2015 Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 1

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Estimating Population and Health Quantities Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 2

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Estimating Population and Health Quantities Goal: Estimate current and past demographic and health quantities and their uncertainty, e.g. Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 3

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Estimating Population and Health Quantities Goal: Estimate current and past demographic and health quantities and their uncertainty, e.g. Vital rates (fertility, mortality, migration): summary and age-specific Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 4

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Estimating Population and Health Quantities Goal: Estimate current and past demographic and health quantities and their uncertainty, e.g. Vital rates (fertility, mortality, migration): summary and age-specific Population by age and sex Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 5

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Estimating Population and Health Quantities Goal: Estimate current and past demographic and health quantities and their uncertainty, e.g. Vital rates (fertility, mortality, migration): summary and age-specific Population by age and sex HIV prevalence Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 6

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Estimating Population and Health Quantities Goal: Estimate current and past demographic and health quantities and their uncertainty, e.g. Vital rates (fertility, mortality, migration): summary and age-specific Population by age and sex HIV prevalence Data: Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 7

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Estimating Population and Health Quantities Goal: Estimate current and past demographic and health quantities and their uncertainty, e.g. Vital rates (fertility, mortality, migration): summary and age-specific Population by age and sex HIV prevalence Data: High quality vital registration and health surveillance data for less than half of countries Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 8

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Estimating Population and Health Quantities Goal: Estimate current and past demographic and health quantities and their uncertainty, e.g. Vital rates (fertility, mortality, migration): summary and age-specific Population by age and sex HIV prevalence Data: High quality vital registration and health surveillance data for less than half of countries In majority of countries, surveys and censuses only Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 9

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Estimating Population and Health Quantities Goal: Estimate current and past demographic and health quantities and their uncertainty, e.g. Vital rates (fertility, mortality, migration): summary and age-specific Population by age and sex HIV prevalence Data: High quality vital registration and health surveillance data for less than half of countries In majority of countries, surveys and censuses only Multiple data sources, each with their own issues Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 10

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Issues Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 11

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Issues Systematic biases: Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 12

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Issues Systematic biases: Non-representative sampling Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 13

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Issues Systematic biases: Non-representative sampling Poor geographic coverage Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 14

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Issues Systematic biases: Non-representative sampling Poor geographic coverage Recall bias Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 15

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Issues Systematic biases: Non-representative sampling Poor geographic coverage Recall bias Undercount (censuses) Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 16

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Issues Systematic biases: Non-representative sampling Poor geographic coverage Recall bias Undercount (censuses) Sampling variation: between individuals, between strata. Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 17

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Issues Systematic biases: Non-representative sampling Poor geographic coverage Recall bias Undercount (censuses) Sampling variation: between individuals, between strata. Why is uncertainty assessment needed? Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 18

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Issues Systematic biases: Non-representative sampling Poor geographic coverage Recall bias Undercount (censuses) Sampling variation: between individuals, between strata. Why is uncertainty assessment needed? general assessment of accuracy: now routine (e.g. UNAIDS, opinion polls, DHS, PMA2020, ACS) Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 19

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Issues Systematic biases: Non-representative sampling Poor geographic coverage Recall bias Undercount (censuses) Sampling variation: between individuals, between strata. Why is uncertainty assessment needed? general assessment of accuracy: now routine (e.g. UNAIDS, opinion polls, DHS, PMA2020, ACS) assessing changes and differences between outcomes and expectations Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 20

UN EGM on Strengthening the Demographic Evidence Base For The Post-2015 Development Agenda, New York, 5-6 October 2015 Issues Systematic biases: Non-representative sampling Poor geographic coverage Recall bias Undercount (censuses) Sampling variation: between individuals, between strata. Why is uncertainty assessment needed? general assessment of accuracy: now routine (e.g. UNAIDS, opinion polls, DHS, PMA2020, ACS) assessing changes and differences between outcomes and expectations making decisions that avoid risks (e.g. national finance ministries for pension planning, school closures) Session 7. A. Raftery (U. of Washington) – Measuring & communicating uncertainty for estimates 21